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K and I were in the Big Apple this past week. And our time there was full of surprises.

The streets and avenues of midtown and downtown were relatively clean, and the sidewalks were crowded. The mood was vibrant, even upbeat. And the crazies – the drug-addled and lunatic homeless population – were more weirdly entertaining than scary.

The shops and restaurants were either full or half-full, and people were buying. Whether the dollars they were spending were the last they had of all the various government handouts or from wages or profits taken from stock accounts, I couldn’t tell. But the economic gestalt of at least those parts of the city felt remarkably healthy.

These are, of course, the parts of the city least likely to be suffering right now from our floundering (foundering?) economy, and the most likely to be feeling exuberant over the strength of the stock market. But still…

Worth Booking 

K booked us into the recently opened Fifth Avenue Hotel. Our pied-à-terre for the week, a standard guest room (about 250 square feet) with a king-sized bed, cost a thousand a night with an American Express Black Card discount.

K likes trying out new hotels, and she had, as always, researched this one carefully. The reviews, she told me, from both critics and guests, were uniformly excellent. “They better have been,” I thought.

Located on Park Avenue and 28th Street, it is walking distance from Madison Square Park, a few steps from the High Line, and a short cab ride to the theater district.

The interior is spacious, elegant, and features an excellent restaurant and bar that require reservations, even for guests, because of their well-deserved reputations. The décor – in both the public areas and the guest rooms (we saw three) – is tasteful and luxurious.

Most impressive, however, is the service. Every employee with whom we interacted, from the receptionists to the concierges to the butlers to the servers and even the housekeepers, was efficient, capable, and responsive. And they always sported a cheerful and helpful demeanor. In New York City! One can expect excellent service in any first-class hotel in NYC… but genuine smiles?

We were in the city to see our NYC friends, to visit some of our favorite museums, to walk in our favorite parks, and to attend a performance at the Shubert Theatre of Water for Elephants, a musical that’s been selling out since day one.

That was a special treat because the leading lady, Isabelle McCalla, happens to be our niece, the daughter of my sister JF and her husband SM.

Worth Seeing 

The show was very good. And Izzy was great – her third lead role in a Broadway show! I am so proud of her. During the intermission and afterwards at the stage door, I found myself initiating casual conversations with the ticket holders around me and mentioning, very humbly, that I was the leading lady’s uncle.

Although she didn’t do any dance solos in Water for Elephants, Izzy danced like the seasoned pro she is. As a child, she was privileged when it came to dancing. Her parents were for many years the lead dance couple for the American Ballroom Theater and taught ballroom dancing thereafter. Izzy began her training when she was in third grade.

Her acting was very good, too. Much better than it was the first time I saw her act when she was an undergrad at the U of Michigan drama school in 2015. Not surprising, because Izzy was always focused and determined to get better at anything she did.

What did surprise me about her performance in Water for Elephants was her singing.

I’ve seen her sing at least a half-dozen times since that first time nine years ago – and each time, I thought I could detect an improvement. I noticed an improvement when she sang as Jasmine in Aladdin, as Alyssa in The Prom, and a noticeable improvement when she played Maizy in Shucks.

In Water for Elephants, she brought her voice to an even higher level. She had, I think, three solos and two duets. In each, her singing ranged from excellent to mesmerizing.

Normally, at this point in an essay like this, I’d stop to provide a “takeaway” – some pragmatic observation or useful suggestion that the reader could benefit from. Well, there isn’t one. This is simply a bald-faced brag.

But in writing it, there was a takeaway for me…

It has always seemed obvious to me that while many skills can be greatly improved through practice – conscious practice – there are some for which achievement is limited by one’s DNA. You have it or you don’t. An aptitude for math, for example, is one of them. Singing is another. But Izzy’s progress made me realize that even a skill as “inborn” as the ability to sing well can be, with time and persistence, mastered.

I wish I knew that when I was younger.

Click here to watch Izzy and her costar, Grant Gustin, performing “Wild” from Water for Elephants.

Why I’m Moving to a Monthly Format 

If you read the Aug. 28 issue, you know that this is the last of my weekly posts. Several readers wanted to know why I’m making the change.

Here’s one big reason…

Until COVID-19 hit, I didn’t write much about current events. I knew that the news media had biases. But I thought they were mostly about politics and that those biases were easy to spot and, therefore, largely inoffensive. And on subjects other than politics, I figured they were mostly trustworthy.

I felt the same way about the larger social media platforms. And I had equal or greater trust in the government agencies that were charged with researching and informing the public about public health issues (WHO, the NIH, and the CDC).

But in early 2000, I began to notice that the numbers I was hearing and reading about COVID in the news didn’t add up.

Literally.

You didn’t need to be a virologist to notice the discrepancies You needed only a grammar school education in arithmetic.

The early estimates of the lethality rate of the virus, for example, ranged from 12% to 15%. If true, and if the virus was also as contagious as the media were reporting, we were looking at perhaps the deadliest pandemic in history, with a death count not in the talked-about millions, but in the billions.

Two variables alone – the fact that the virus was killing mostly the older and the obese, and the fact that a significant percentage of people who had tested positive were either asymptomatic or had only minor symptoms – made it arithmetically impossible to believe the official numbers.

Yet everyone seemed to accept those numbers as scientific facts, and the media passed them along to the public uncritically.

I was flummoxed. Was I the only one that noticed?

I decided to write about it. And, thus, the purpose of my first essay on COVID was not to inform my readers that they were being fed false information, but to explain my thinking and show them my arithmetic. I did the same in conversations with friends and neighbors. I asked. And I kept asking. But I got only two responses: polite silence or laughter.

This prompted me to double down on my research. I began with how and where the infection started. China and the WHO had issued a report stating that the cause was zoonotic – i.e., passed to humans from an infected animal at an outdoor fish market on December 31, 2019 in Wuhan, China. This was accepted by the CDC and passed along to Americans by Dr. Fauci, as head of the CDC.

Soon thereafter, letters and articles were being published in health and science journals arguing that the DNA of the virus could not have been zoonotic and might have come from a leak at a US-funded laboratory in Wuhan.

I read both sides of the argument but decided that I didn’t have the knowledge to go with one or the other.

In the ensuing weeks, the WHO, Dr. Fauci, and some of his colleagues at the CDC (and I think at the NIH) launched a harsh attack on proponents of the “lab leak” theory, accusing them of being anti-science and engaging in dangerous “misinformation” and “conspiracy theories.”

“What difference does the origin of the virus make?” I wondered. “What matters is how to stop or control it.”

But the campaign continued and deepened. Before long, anything published in support of the lab leak theory was being cancelled. Then several of the scientists and doctors who argued in favor of it were publicly condemned, sanctioned by their medical associations, and in some cases had their licenses revoked.

Today, everyone accepts the lab leak theory as the one that is most likely to be true. Even the CDC. And yet, I’ll bet if I asked 10 people that get their information from CNN and the NYT, at least six of them would still call it a “conspiracy.”

At the same time as I was researching the origins of the virus, I continued to study and write about the fatality rate. And over the years that have passed since I first put forward my guesses, the official lethality count was gradually lowered. But it took nearly four years for the WHO, the CDC, and the NIH to get honest with the public and begin publishing the real numbers.

I had the same experience with questions about the utility of social distancing and masks and the government shutdown of the economy. In every instance, the “findings” coming from government health agencies and the narratives promoted by mainstream media seemed, according to the facts I was discovering, less and less probable.

Eventually, I became a full-fledged disbeliever in anything the “official” sources had to say about COVID. And that led me to mistrust what my government was telling me about all the controversies during that time – from the earlier reports that Russia had interfered with the 2016 presidential election, to the accusation that Trump was “colluding” with Russia during his term of office, to the “facts” publicized following the BLM protests and riots, to the more recent controversies about the Russia/Ukraine and Israel/Hamas wars.

In almost every case, I found numbers that didn’t add up, or logic that was fallacious, or stories that had been fabricated, or facts that were not facts, and very little common sense applied.

I was drawn into these controversies. And when my essays on them were criticized, I was drawn in even deeper to prove my arguments.

It was intense. And intellectually and emotionally exhausting. Moreover, the research was taking up an increasingly bigger proportion of my working day. And so, about a month ago, when I woke up one morning still tired from working till the wee hours to finish another one of those essays, I decided enough was enough. There were plenty of other writers producing arguments on my side of the stories.

I realized that if I could free myself of what had turned into an obsession – if I could step away from researching and writing about current events and political issues – I would be able to free up at least 20 hours a week that I could devote to finishing some of my 18 half-written books.

I didn’t want to stop writing my blog altogether – but I didn’t have to post an issue twice a week. I could do a longer issue once a month. And I would still have time to fulfill my obligation to write several syndicated essays each month for large-circulation e-zines.

So, that is the thinking behind my decision to make this my last weekly issue. When you get to the Postscript at the end, you’ll see what I’m planning for the new monthly issue.

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Who’s Controlling the Information You Get Online? 

Zuckerberg just emptied out the whole can of beans. Prior to the 2020 election, the FBI and the Justice Department intimidated Facebook into flagging scientific studies whose results were critical of the COVID vaccines as fake news and burying news negative to President Biden (including Hunter’s laptop story and that the president’s son was paid tens of millions of dollars by Ukraine, Russia, and China to influence his father during Obama’s tenure).

If you limit your news to the establishment press, you may have missed all that. But it’s true and it’s documented and eventually it will be accepted as true, as other social media insiders feel free to tell the truth and more of the facts from the X files are reported on.

But the gaslighting and censorship go beyond the big social media forums. Senior executives at Google are beginning to talk about the bias built into the search engine’s algorithms. And most recently, Wikipedia co-founder Dr. Larry Sanger complained about the drift towards the left in the platform’s information gathering and fact checking. He lamented that Wikipedia, which once “allowed people to work together and represent a global array of perspectives on every topic” now just represents the establishment’s point of view.

In the last four or five years, I’ve noticed this bias and noted that it’s been getting worse. I have noticed it this past year with Wikipedia, too. Data and stories that I found and read in the past are impossible to locate, and some of Wikipedia’s content is starting to sound like it’s been filtered through a DEI screen.

Read more from Dr. Sanger here.

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Nice Journalist, Bad Journalist 

When police want to intimidate someone into copping to a crime – regardless of whether the suspect is guilty – they use the good cop/bad cop routine because it is very effective. When people don’t understand their rights and feel somewhat defenseless, like you might feel in an interrogation room, they will often believe in the “good cop’s” good intentions because they want to. They want to believe that someone – i.e., this “good cop,” is trustworthy.

Journalists do the same thing, but they do it without a partner. They introduce themselves to the person they’re interviewing by sounding nice and friendly and asking questions that seem totally harmless. Then, once they feel they have the interviewee’s trust, they gradually ask the gotcha questions.

I’ve been in this situation more than once. If you give in, you get double punishment. They write the negative story they had decided to write before they spoke to you – and when you see it, you feel like you’ve been intellectually and morally raped.

This is why experts, including ex-cops, tell you to give the police only the minimum information you are required to give them if you are “detained” for any reason.

With a journalist, you can refrain from taking the interview, knowing that they are going to write their story anyway. Or, if you are as smart as Konstantin Kisin, you can have some fun with them.

Click here.

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Country Music Is Booming 

It’s big and getting bigger – and in a very democratic way: through sampling on social media. I’ve been predicting to people in my industry that the internet and social media have set in motion a change in consumer buying that will be fundamental. Once ridiculed as the least efficient way to sell products and services, “sampling,” I believe, is the future.

Read this essay by Neil Shah in the WSJ and then check out some of the samples he provides.

Students Hurt by the COVID Shutdowns Are Not Catching Up 

The data keeps coming in. And it’s all bad. One example: Four years after the shutdown, Colorado students showed a 1.3-point improvement in math and 0.4 points in English. Which is something – but way below pre-pandemic levels.

Why Is the FBI Bungling Its Child Sexual Abuse Cases? 

This is troubling. The Justice Department is looking into allegations that the FBI was egregiously and inexplicably mishandling child sexual abuse cases by failing to comply with mandatory reporting requirements in roughly half the cases examined. Click here.

And they’re still doing it. Click here.

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Six Quick Bites 

* Interesting. The WHO issued greatly reduced Monkeypox case and death numbers on Aug 28. Click here.

* Interesting. The worm turns. The Biden administration put Tulsi Gabbard on “Quiet Skies,” a suspected terrorist watchlist. Click here.

* Fun. The America First Team has been working on a “victory” dance if Trump wins. I know Trump has a few moves, but Elon and RFK Jr? These boys can boogie! Click here.

* Interesting. Did you hear that Alexa has a political point of view? Well, she does. Or did until she got caught. Here‘s the story.

* Fun. Dogs! Gotta love ‘em! Click here and here and here.

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From CA re my Aug. 30 essay on “The State of Our Economy”: 

“Check out the Aug. CCI (Consumer Confidence Index). Although people with jobs naturally have more confidence than those without, the overall trend is slightly up. That’s not typically what we see heading into a recession. However, economists generally agree that all bets are off for the future if the presidency is won by the candidate who wants to impose huge tariffs on most of the things poor people buy every day. See this link.”

My Response: Thanks for the note, CA. I am aware that there are some polls out there suggesting that, as you say, “consumer confidence” has marginally improved. If you take the stock market as an indicator, it’s more than marginal.

But as I emphasized in my essay, my interest is not in what most people think or feel about the economy, but what the undecided voters in the swing states think. And I provided some data indicating that the sort of person that tends to be unaligned and independent when it comes to national elections would likely be more negative and even pessimistic when it comes to the economy.

A WSJ national poll last week shed some light on this. When voters were asked what issue mattered most to them in the election, the largest share (29%) picked the economy. This was followed by immigration (19%) and abortion (14%). “That is probably good news for Trump,” the WSJ said, noting that concern about immigration also favors him.

As for your statement that “economists generally agree that all bets are off for the future if the presidency is won by the candidate who wants to impose huge tariffs on most of the things poor people buy every day,” I have three things to say. First, I agree: Trump’s tariff ideas will definitely make middle- and working-class consumers poorer because they will be the ones to pay for those tariffs through higher prices. Second: You do know that Kamala has also promised to impose tariffs, right? Plus major tax increases that she falsely claims will affect only the 1%. Third: Most voters understand nothing about the economics of tariffs.

Bottom line: How will the undecided voters in swing states feel about the economy in November? They will feel that it’s worse than it was four years ago… because it is. Considerably worse.

From KW re my Aug. 28 announcement that this will be my last weekly issue:

“Well, here we are again. Here’s how you touched my life (for the good). I was a very early ETR subscriber and eagerly devoured your posts every day. (I wish I still had them all for reference.) Your insights led me to ETR conferences. Which led me to AWAI and Circle of Success. And your relationship with Agora led me to Stansberry Alliance and now Porter’s Partner Pass. And to Bonner Private Research, of course. More importantly, all of that improved my life dramatically and led me on a path that has enriched me in many ways. Thank you so much!

“I had the pleasure of speaking with you briefly at an ETR conference in Delray Beach, and I’ve made many connections through ETR and AWAI. Today, I run a small manufacturer’s rep agency which I am in the process of transforming into a sales and marketing agency. I am ever in your debt.”

My Response: Thanks, KW. Your letter made my day. This is why I have been writing blogs for 24 years, and why I will continue to publish a monthly version of this one in the future.

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The first monthly issue of this blog will be posted in about three weeks. Here’s what you can expect:

The monthly issues will be longer than the weekly issues. And they will look and feel more like a magazine than a newsletter. That’s because magazines are designed to be used differently than newsletters. A newsletter is meant to be read entirely, from beginning to end. A magazine is meant to be scanned and then read selectively.

As I said above, I will not be covering current events, per se, but I will be including links to things I’ve read and watched that I’m hoping will interest, inform, and entertain you. Each issue will also include one longish essay from yours truly – sometimes a “work-in-progress” chapter from one of the books I’m attempting to finish. Of the three unfinished books that I’ve made a priority, one is about my struggles to create charitable foundations that do less harm than good, another is an amateur’s guide to art collecting, and the third is a history of the development of Rancho Santana, the resort my partners and I have been developing on the west coast of Nicaragua for 26 years.

I’m feeling good about this change and excited about turning this blog into something you can read at your leisure and feel that the time you put into reading it is more than worth your while.

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"Were it not for hypocrisy I’d have no advice to give."
"Were it not for sciolism I’d have no ideas to share."
"Were it not for arrogance, I’d have no ambition."
"Were it not for forgetfulness, I would have no new ideas to write about."