From SC: “I have a question for you…What’s holding up the collapse?” 

“For a long time now, I’ve been reading very cogent, lucid, and compelling warnings about the IMMINENT economic disaster ahead because of our massive national debt. Not only from essays by you, Bill Bonner, Doug Casey, et al, but from mainstream and not so mainstream media as well.

“I need no convincing. The arguments make every bit of sense to me. But I’ve been reading about this ‘imminent’ disaster since Reagan almost tripled the national debt. We’ve also heard the same warnings after debt increases by every president since then!

“So, here’s my question. WHAT’S HOLDING IT UP? This is not a wisecrack question. I really don’t understand why it hasn’t happened already. Is it the economic activity and growth that arises from all the borrowing? Is it possible that the debt is nothing more than red ink on a piece of paper? What and when, exactly, is the ‘breaking point?’”

My Response: I’ve been hearing predictions of another financial Armageddon since 1983, when I first got into the financial newsletter business. But just because something has or has not happened in the past does not mean it won’t or will happen in the future. The SEC reminds investors of that by making registered brokers and investment advisors state somewhere in every prediction or recommendation: “Past performance is no guarantee of future results.”

Let’s assume that I don’t contend that the Great Recession was a financial disaster of that magnitude. (Even though it resulted in a transfer of about $10 trillion from US middle-class and working-class households to the financial industrial complex and those that profit from it – the top 1%.)

Then, I’d agree with you: The case for the big reckoning – on the level of the Great Depression – has not materialized, despite the undeniably frightening facts and persuasive rhetoric.

What has happened in the past 50 years is a gradual but steady devaluation of the dollar’s buying power. Since the Nixon administration abandoned the gold standard in 1972, the dollar has lost 96% of its purchasing power.

That’s like two Great Depressions!

And that, according to economists (including the likes of Milton Friedman), is the primary reason why, in the past 50 years, the working and middle classes have become poorer while Wall Street and the top 1% have become exponentially richer.

All that said, and admitting that my knowledge of monetary theory and macroeconomics is very basic, I have two answers for you.

1. Since 1972, the Treasury Department and the Federal Reserve have had a responsibility they didn’t have when the dollar was backed by gold: to try to manipulate market prices to avoid hyperinflations and recessions by adjusting the Fed’s lending rate up or down (quantitative tightening and easing). Every country that has a fiat currency (i.e., a currency not backed by gold or, say, Bitcoin) has had to do the same thing. So, when it looks like the economy is slowing and heading towards a possible recession, the Fed lowers the interest rate, which makes it more attractive for businesses to borrow money and thus “stimulate” the economy. And when it looks like the economy is “heating up” and inflation (even hyperinflation) is a risk, they raise the rate to bring inflation under control.

The problem with this approach is that the government is required to balance its books every year. And when it spends more money than it has (the money it has comes almost entirely from taxation), it must borrow money from whoever wants to buy dollars. For decades after WWII, it was Japan and Germany. Then China became the US’s principal lender. Then hedge funds. This is why federal debt went from $400 billion in 1972 to $36 trillion today.

The US is the most indebted country (and economy) in the world, by a longshot. In a free-market environment (the environment in which Americans do business, earn a living, and buy things), the credit rating of potential borrowers determines whether money will be lent to them. Before you or I can borrow money from a bank or any lending institution to buy a car or a house or get a business loan, we must first prove that we are creditworthy. If we are not, we will not get the loan. (This rule was cleverly abandoned by unethical mortgage lenders and the government’s Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac in the years prior to the real estate debacle of 2008. It was that – lending billions upon billions of dollars to borrowers that were not credit “worthy” – that was the cause of the crash.)

If, then, increasing the debt by a factor of nearly 100 ($400 billion to $36 trillion) is a bad thing for the US economy – if it has turned us into the nation with the greatest debt in human history, even greater in relative terms than the Roman Empire’s before it collapsed in 476 – why haven’t we seen the predicted big collapse?

That brings me to my second answer…

2. Until very recently, countries that, for whatever reason, had a budget surplus and wanted to safeguard their money against economic risks such as inflation, had to buy dollars. The US government may have been sinking further into debt, but what choice did they have? After WWII, in the Breton Woods agreement, the US managed to contrive after-war policies, including the invention of the World Bank and the International Monetary Fund, to make the US dollar the default global security. (There is a great book – The Wealth of Shadows – that does a fantastic job of detailing this. See my review of it, above.)

And so, in 1978, when China changed its economy from a totally centrally controlled one to one that allowed for a substantial free market within it, and went from being the world’s poorest large country to the second-richest, it safeguarded all the trillions of dollars it was acquiring by buying US Treasuries. The same with Germany and Japan and a hundred other smaller countries that were producing budget surpluses. By 1972, the leaders of these countries had figured out the game. If they wanted to continue to grow their wealth by selling their cheap labor to the US, they had to buy the materials needed for that great economic expansion in dollars. And that continued until just recently.

What is different now is that half a dozen superpowers whose combined GDPs are larger than those of the US and England, France, and Germany decided that it was time to replace the dollar as the world’s global currency. China began the process by buying up gold. The second thing China has done was desist, as much as possible, from borrowing US dollars, and to pay for its needs using its gold stores (which further debases the strength of the dollar). The third thing China has done, along with oil-rich Arab nations like Saudi Arabia and with Russia, is move towards trade agreements that will allow them, as a group, to trade with one another using a new currency of their devising – probably a dollar-backed currency.

If they do that, the dollar will collapse. Big time. And the doomsayers will finally be right.

Here’s more info on why the dollar’s days are numbered.

As I said, I don’t consider myself to be an expert on macroeconomics or monetary theory. What I laid out above is what I came to after asking myself the same questions you asked me.

I’m publishing it here so I can be fact-checked by my readers who still believe that Maynard Keynes had it right. If they correct me, I’ll make adjustments. But for the moment, this is the only explanation that makes sense to me.

From PL re my recommended list of “how-to-succeed-in-business” books in the Sept. 3  issue: 

“Several of the books on your list definitely had a profound effect on my life. For instance, Think and Grow Rich and How to Win Friends and Influence People.

“Another one that dramatically changed my life but didn’t make your list was The Magic of Thinking Big by David Schwartz. It is the one that made me realize that what I needed to do was find something that I truly enjoy doing and have the courage to believe that I could get my slice of the pie. So, if you do happen to make an updated list, I thought I would bring this one to your attention for consideration.”

From CA re my Aug. 30 essay on “The State of Our Economy”: 

“Check out the Aug. CCI (Consumer Confidence Index). Although people with jobs naturally have more confidence than those without, the overall trend is slightly up. That’s not typically what we see heading into a recession. However, economists generally agree that all bets are off for the future if the presidency is won by the candidate who wants to impose huge tariffs on most of the things poor people buy every day. See this link.”

My Response: Thanks for the note, CA. I am aware that there are some polls out there suggesting that, as you say, “consumer confidence” has marginally improved. If you take the stock market as an indicator, it’s more than marginal.

But as I emphasized in my essay, my interest is not in what most people think or feel about the economy, but what the undecided voters in the swing states think. And I provided some data indicating that the sort of person that tends to be unaligned and independent when it comes to national elections would likely be more negative and even pessimistic when it comes to the economy.

A WSJ national poll last week shed some light on this. When voters were asked what issue mattered most to them in the election, the largest share (29%) picked the economy. This was followed by immigration (19%) and abortion (14%). “That is probably good news for Trump,” the WSJ said, noting that concern about immigration also favors him.

As for your statement that “economists generally agree that all bets are off for the future if the presidency is won by the candidate who wants to impose huge tariffs on most of the things poor people buy every day,” I have three things to say. First, I agree: Trump’s tariff ideas will definitely make middle- and working-class consumers poorer because they will be the ones to pay for those tariffs through higher prices. Second: You do know that Kamala has also promised to impose tariffs, right? Plus major tax increases that she falsely claims will affect only the 1%. Third: Most voters understand nothing about the economics of tariffs.

Bottom line: How will the undecided voters in swing states feel about the economy in November? They will feel that it’s worse than it was four years ago… because it is. Considerably worse.

From KW re my Aug. 28 announcement that this will be my last weekly issue:

“Well, here we are again. Here’s how you touched my life (for the good). I was a very early ETR subscriber and eagerly devoured your posts every day. (I wish I still had them all for reference.) Your insights led me to ETR conferences. Which led me to AWAI and Circle of Success. And your relationship with Agora led me to Stansberry Alliance and now Porter’s Partner Pass. And to Bonner Private Research, of course. More importantly, all of that improved my life dramatically and led me on a path that has enriched me in many ways. Thank you so much!

“I had the pleasure of speaking with you briefly at an ETR conference in Delray Beach, and I’ve made many connections through ETR and AWAI. Today, I run a small manufacturer’s rep agency which I am in the process of transforming into a sales and marketing agency. I am ever in your debt.”

My Response: Thanks, KW. Your letter made my day. This is why I have been writing blogs for 24 years, and why I will continue to publish a monthly version of this one in the future.

From RM re “My Plot for a Science Fiction Movie” in the Aug. 19  issue: 

“Your plot is interesting….

“All it takes is one! One corporate behemoth to slip by the concerned masses and become too big and too powerful. A genie whose authority eclipses the authority of the authorities… and who cannot be placed back in any bottle. So, the land of Meta will have its capital at its corporate HQ but will have territories or colonies around the world.

“We are already seeing some of these corporations create schools and towns for workers….”

My Response: After I published that piece, I realized that there were other parts of my plot that I hadn’t mentioned. For example…

I believe the digital nation-states never wanted to be integrated into the physical nations because their form of government gave them all the benefits that physical nations could offer but with better payoffs and fewer hassles. They had all the money they needed (through their form of voluntary taxation – i.e. subscription revenues) and much greater power than the physical nations in terms of influencing the thoughts and even controlling the behavior of their citizens.

Instead of using a range of forceful penalties for bad behavior that ultimately necessitates guns and prisons, the digital nation-states get their citizens to obey their laws (laws they can make up without the cost and hassle of a legislature) by the non-violent, non-force-based mechanism of issuing temporary to permanent ostracization.

And leaders of the digital nation-states can get a lot richer a lot faster than leaders of physical nations because they own their states and can take from the collective treasury whatever they want in terms of personal compensation, without answering to anybody.

Even if political leaders of physical nations are willing to enrich themselves unethically or illegally by trading on private financial information, taking bribes for “consulting” work, and making promises to their citizens that they can’t keep, they can’t get as rich as Bezos or Musk.

That’s why I believe the US-based digital nation-states were more than happy to simply pay their taxes and be left alone.

From SL re my advice to The Donald in the Aug. 23  issue:

“Enjoying your engaging, witty writing, as usual.

“But do you think Trump understands what ad hominem attacks are? Even if he does, they are his stock-in-trade. Asking him to desist from personal insults is like asking a rooster not to crow at sunrise.

“Will the winner be the contestant who does a better job of staying on script? If so, it looks like Kamala to me.”

My Response: Kamala could certainly win if she stays on script. She did a great job in her closing speech at the DNC. She was confident and, dare I say, presidential. Most impressive of all was how she made her six major misleading and outright false statements sound believable.

She won’t do as well if she debates Trump. He can think on his feet. She cannot. If Trump does what I “told” him to do – avoids the ad hominem attacks and hammers away with the facts – he has a better-than-even chance to win.

Dems are feeling a lot of joy and strength now. (Interesting aside: Did you know that Kraft durch Freude – “Strength Through Joy” – was a Nazi slogan in the 1930s?) But the race, as we know, will be decided by the undecided voters in the swing states, and we will see how that looks as the next few weeks pass.

Obviously, I believe a Harris presidency would be a disaster for the US. (Her proposal to levy a 25% wealth tax would destroy our economy all by itself.) However, although a Trump win would be net positive for the US economy in the short-term, his demonstrated commitment to trillion-dollar deficits will lead to a deep recession or hyperinflation, either of which will make the productive population of the US poorer. Possibly much poorer.

In offering my advice to Harris and Trump, I haven’t been thinking of what will be best for the US during what remains of my lifetime, but what will be better for my children and grandchildren. And when I think honestly about that, I have to accept the fact that my DNA gifts to the future of the US and the world will suffer regardless of who wins in November. The insane spending of both candidates and both parties will doom them equally. The only important difference being that Harris is more likely to get us into WWIII.

From CF re BJJ in the Aug. 9 issue: 

“Mark, just wanted to say I thoroughly enjoyed your piece today about your BJJ experience. Well written and relatable I think to a lot of men who have experienced the camaraderie of training and bonding with other men. I had similar experiences in boxing. I also enjoyed the stories of your partners and the lighthearted humor you peppered in those stories. Great pictures as well that really brought the whole read together. Congrats!”

From JM re the Postmodern Jukebox clip in the Aug. 13 issue: 

“Thanks for sharing Effie Passero’s interpretation of ‘Creep.’ Listened again and I’m sweating from the emotional exertion.”

From TA re the piece by Bill Bonner in the Aug. 1 issue: 

“I have been reading Bill Bonner for a few decades now. He has had more influence on how I see our government and politicians than any commentator out there. You have to get used to his doom and gloom, but what he says makes sense. I’ve really changed my view of how we wage war. I hope he keeps beating the drum. Maybe more eyes will be opened to what we’ve allowed our country to become.”

My Response: Me too!

From JS re my observations about the Japanese during my trip to Japan – specifically their attention to detail: 

“I think you may remember ISO 9000 – a set of international standards for quality control. Many of these standards were adopted by the Japanese years ago. They recruited an American, W. Edwards Deming, the most widely known proponent of statistical quality control, to teach them how to apply his theories. His premise was that persistent improvement heightens production quality and output, boosting customer satisfaction as costs decline. The big US car manufacturers made fun of Deming, figuring that since they were the top three manufacturers of automobiles in the world, they know what they are doing.

“But Deming was recruited by Japan, his theories adopted, and the rest is history.

“As you can see here, Toyota and Lexus still lead the way when it comes to the fewest vehicle defects.”

From AS re the Aug. 9 issue on BJJ: 

“I enjoyed your stories about BJJ. I especially liked how you brought up beating the young man when he was a kid.

“I used to play basketball in a neighborhood called Chagrin Falls Park. A lot of good players would show up there. One day, it was just me and an 11-year-old kid. Before the court filled up, we played a couple of games of one-on-one. I beat him in both games.

“Six years later, he was a high school star and went on to play in college. When people would bring up his name, I would casually mention that I used to beat him, one-on-one.

“After their facial expressions relaxed from the look of, ‘Wow, you must have been good’ or ‘This guy’s full of shit,” I would mention that he was 11 years old at the time, and I was 33.”

From LP re a common marketing idea that rarely works: 

“I had the opportunity to read an essay in which you discussed how to earn extra money by taking surveys. Do you have it available?”

My Response: I don’t remember writing about that exactly, and neither does my editor, so I can’t link you to it. Perhaps it was a speech or a paragraph that was part of a larger essay that was filed under a different topic?

That said, I’m guessing you are referring to a direct-marketing strategy that has been used in the past and gotten fantastic results. But it’s not without risk. And it must be done correctly (from a copy perspective). But when it works, it can work very well.

What you do is publish in a periodical or send out to a list (email or snail mail) a questionnaire on a topic that relates to your product. The people that answer the questionnaire, regardless of their answers, are prime candidates for receiving a second, more direct advertisement.

It’s an expensive way to build a prospect list because it begins with a survey that asks for nothing but answers in return. But because it is not asking for dollars, you can sometimes get a very high response rate. And that can translate into a dollar return on the second effort that more than pays for the costs of the first.

AS re “Famous Last Words” – one of the “Quick Bites” in the July 30 issue:

“You left out two of my favorites: Johnny Carson’s ‘I’ll be back, right after this announcement’ and ‘I knew this was going to happen.’ (Don’t know who was responsible for that last one.)”

My Response: I should have remembered “I knew this was going to happen.” That could be the best of them all!

From AC re my books on marketing: 

“I am a college student who wants to break into marketing and advertising, and I am a huge fan of your books. I’ve read five of them. My absolute favorite is Great Leads.”

Editor’s Note: Readers of this blog can order most of Mark’s books – including Great Leads – at a discounted price. Click here.

From RS re “Lessons Learned” in the July 19 issue: 

“Happy to report that I’ve been doing my shoelaces right. What unnerved me about the video is that he holds his first loop in his right hand instead of his left, so maybe he’s left-handed?”

My Response: Good question. As a right-hander, it took me a few weeks to adjust my coordination to tie the new knot. It was worth the effort.

From PN:

“I just read Ralph Waldo Emerson’s definition of success: ‘To laugh often and much; to win the respect of the intelligent people and the affection of children; to earn the appreciation of honest critics and endure the betrayal of false friends; to appreciate beauty; to find the best in others; to leave the world a bit better whether by a healthy child, a garden patch, or a redeemed social condition; to know even one life has breathed easier because you lived here. This is to have succeeded.’

“As I read this, I thought that you check all of the boxes. I am certain Ralph would agree.”

From GM re my posts on election fraud and voter interference: 

“Over the past year or so, when I am engaged in discussions about this very subject and its impact on the 2020 election, I find people very quick to dismiss voter fraud as small in number and insignificant. I no longer play that game since, no matter what you present (as you have), it is always pooh-poohed. So, instead, I point to the largest case of election interference I believe history has ever seen. That being the concealment of Hunter Biden’s laptop by the FBI! Poll after poll has shown that upwards of 17% of voters would have voted differently had they known of the legitimacy of the laptop contents and its damning evidence of wrongdoing by the Biden family. Now we know that the FBI had the laptop info in their sweaty hands for at least two years before the election but STILL warned the social-media companies to ignore it and cancel all posts about it since ‘it had all the signs’ of Russian interference in our sacred election process. Yep, they threw the 2020 election… full stop.”

Re the thoughts I’ve been sharing about my trip to Japan:

“Regarding your speech in Tokyo, thanks for being humble and showing vulnerability. Many years ago, I thought that having anxiety for public speaking only happened to me. I remember when Tony Robbins made a difference between those who are paralyzed by anxiety and those who are not paralyzed. The first  say to themselves ‘I can’t’ and the second say ‘I’m ready.’ Good luck Mark, you are more than ready.” – CS

“I really enjoyed your piece about the many ways Japanese culture is superior to ours. You will alienate quite a few people because you wrote it so convincingly. Jingoism is a trait of many Americans.

“It’s true, Japanese are more consistent in their behavior. And it’s not a wealth or class thing. Those habits are practiced by families of all incomes. In many ways they are more civilized than Americans, but of course I’ll never forget how they treated the Allies in prison camps during WWII.” – AS