“You have stated several times in the past year that you believe the US is in for a significant and sustained recession. You have also said that, in spite of your expectation of an extended bear market, you are keeping most of your stock portfolio intact – i.e., you are not selling. Why not? Are you suggesting that everyone hold?” – JP

My Response: I don’t tell people what to do with their investments because I don’t think of myself as an investment advisor. What I do is write about decisions I’ve made for myself. As I’ve explained many times, my portfolio is made up of what I call “Legacy” stocks – companies that have the size and strength to endure through recessions and even depressions. So, even though I think there’s a good chance that we’re in for an extended bear market, I’m not selling.

As I pointed out in the Sept. 27 issue, if I had another sort of stock portfolio – one that was heavy in speculative and/or growth stocks – I would make a change. Likewise, if I were making money trading stocks, I’d stop and wait till the smoke clears.

But that’s not the position I’m in. I can afford to wait a year or even five or 10 years for the market to recover… which it always has. As TS, reminded me recently:

“The S&P 500 has been down 20% or more over a six-month period eight times since World War II. The first six months of this year were the latest example. Every time this has happened in the past, the market was positive for the next six months with an average return of 21.5%.

“Furthermore, in all seven previous times, the market was positive for the following 12 months with an average return of 31.4%.”

Re “We Were Not Just Wrong” in Tuesday’s issue: 

“That issue on COVID was a really good one. Also really scary.” – TG

“They have not learned. They are not abashed. They are lying to themselves even more than they lie to us precisely to prevent such things. The cognitive dissonance is re-writing memory so they recall being heroes, not villains.” – GM

“There may have been some fear mongering here and there during the pandemic, but I don’t think anyone that had a friend or family die of COVID will agree with your take on it.” – HB

“Read your blog on COVID – I was surprised at the vitriol in some of your condemnations. It seems to me you want to annoy anyone who thinks COVID is a real issue.” – DF

Re Bill Bonner’s view of US politics in Friday’s issue: 

“Pleased to know that Bill Bonner and I concur: The bureaucratic class of both parties are having us on. We are being had.” – JM

My Response: I agree with you and Bill re the balance of corruption in politics. Especially today.

The issue is interesting. On the one hand, I cannot imagine that everyone that goes into politics is corruptible to the core. Indeed, I do see some of our politicians, past and present, as good people that maintained their integrity. (I’d put Jimmy Carter and Ronald Reagan in that box.) But the nature of politics is about power. To advance one’s cause, no matter what it is, the method is to gain power. And that teaches young politicians that the end must justify the means. (The more committed one is to his/her mission, the more tempting it will be to accept that Machiavellian principle.) Add to this, the pressure in a bicameral legislature, like we have in the US, to be a team player, and the associated punishment if one is not. That, too, is something an up-and-coming politician must learn if he/she is to advance.

So, you have these built-in experiences that have the effect, purposely or not, of eroding personal integrity. And you have the fact that the rewards for playing the game increase as you move up the food chain. Not just the money, but the power. When you consider all that, the near universality of corruption is not just understandable but logical.

If all that were not enough, there is the fact that what legislators are asked to do – write and rewrite laws regulating everything from human behavior to the design and maintenance of nuclear reactors – is way beyond the necessary comprehension of any individual. And you have a recipe for economic, social, and political ideas that are not just idiotic but destructive.

“The Kurt Vonnegut letter in Tuesday’s issue  was horrifying and genuine. I had no idea, as I’m sure most did not…. By the way, the Japanese POW camps made the German ones look like a resort.” – AS

“I hope you get great satisfaction in knowing that your book [Ready, Fire, Aim] continues to guide the way and help thousands of people like me every year!” – RC

“I am reaching out to ask if there is any way to work with you as a mentor? I admire your story and what you have built. I am 23 years old and started my first company about six years ago.” – JJ

My Response: I appreciate the question, JJ. I think it’s smart for someone in your position – young but already moving in the fast lane – to seek out mentors.

Probably because of the many books I’ve written about business and wealth building over the years, I get requests like yours several times a month. It’s flattering to be appreciated, but I always wonder: Do these people think I’m retired and spending my days sitting on a porch somewhere? I am 72, but I’m still working 60+ hours a week on a half-dozen businesses and charities that need my attention.

So, the answer is no. But I can’t fault you for asking. What I’d recommend for someone like you (young and already a business owner) would be to join a mastermind group of business owners, of which there are many to choose from. I’ve been a guest speaker at several of those meetings and have been impressed with how they work. By putting together entrepreneurs of different ages, and with different levels of experience, and from different industries, these groups give you a rich base of wisdom to test your ideas and go to for advice.

Re what I’ve been saying about violence in big cities – the NYC subways, in particular: 

“Your Nov. 4 issue[LINK] about passion, weddings, and kale was a pleasant read until the negative New York trope. I realize that fear, real or imagined, cannot be changed by a few words. But I feel compelled to point out that over 900 million people have taken the subway so far this year. Compare that to the 25 pushing incidents and the odds of it happening to you are minuscule. In fact, yesterday’s paper had an article that pointed out, ‘Put into perspective, the current rate of 1.2 violent crimes for every one million rides is roughly equal to the chance of getting injured in a crash if one drives a car two miles.’ Add to that the health benefits of walking up and down the stairs, the environmental impact of the cab, and the $1.35 senior rate and you might want to join K’s line of thinking.” – KK

My Response: Thanks for doing the research to defend the hell hole (or is it shit hole?) you are living in. I’m going to spend the next 24 hours trying to find a fault with your logic. If I can’t (and I have to admit, it doesn’t look promising), I’ll publicly admit you are right. (I still won’t admit I’m wrong. You know the Zen idea: Two contrasting truths can exist at the same time.)

“Thank you! Inspired by [your ideas about time management and productivity], I created a daily task list template that I’ve been using…. It keeps me on track (something I have challenges with) while focusing on key daily tasks that move me closer to my objectives for the week.” – ND

“Hi, Mark – I’ve been following you since 2010. I moved to the US from Canada where nobody talks about the ‘market’ let alone have it play a daily part of life like in the US! Your newsletters were my first guide book to investing.” – DB

Re what I said in the Oct. 18 issue about the friends/relatives of writers:

“I wonder if Shakespeare’s friends had comments like: This part about ‘Be not afraid of greatness.’ It’s too grandiose. Don’t flatter yourself.” – MS

“Thanks for validating my beliefs of the liberal arts education system [in the Oct. 21 issue]! But the purpose of my message is to say I was expecting a definition of ‘autodidact’ and not the lowly ‘feisty.’ However, what I have learned is that I am in fact a complete autodidact and much of my knowledge, and thirst for knowledge, has come from you. Thank you for that!” – TM