From BJ:

“I have appreciated your incisive analysis of our current economic situation. I wanted to add a timely tidbit of historical fact: Over the past 100 years, the surest sign of an oncoming financial crisis has been Philadelphia winning the World Series. Don’t believe me? Here are the facts: In 1929, the Philadelphia Athletics were WS champions. In 1980 and 2008, the Phillies were tops in MLB.”

So, umm… who are you rooting for?

The Costs of the COVID Shutdowns Are Coming In 

It’s becoming increasingly clear that the COVID shutdowns were a bad idea. They did not curb the spread of the virus. If anything, they accelerated it. And there were negative consequences. Substantial ones. Like the decimation of the economy, including the end of many retail businesses, an increase in depression and suicide, and the retardation in learning for America’s students. Especially grammar school students for whom the mortality risk for COVID was close to zero.

Earlier this week, for example, the National Assessment of Educational Progress released a report showing the largest decline in math skills ever recorded and a decline in reading levels that is the lowest in 30 years. Math scores for eighth graders fell in nearly every state, with the average score dropping eight points since 2019. And the average for fourth graders fell by five points. See the data breakdown for math here and reading here.

Just in Time for Halloween: “The 50 Scariest Books of All Time” 

I saw the headline on the Book Riot website, and wondered if The Haunting of Hill House – which I reviewed last week – was included. It was. Fifth on the list. The list also included a sprinkling of the usual suspects, such as Stephen King’s Pet Cemetery, as well as some other scary (though not in the Halloween sense) titles. 1984 by George Orwell and Night by Elie Wiesel, for example, were in the top five, along with The Haunting.

It’s worth it to peruse the list. You’ll find not just scary books you’ve never heard of, but books about such things as Chernobyl, the Ebola virus, and the forgotten massacre of hundreds of thousands of Chinese soldiers and civilians in WWII. Click here to take a look.

Did you ever wonder how accents come about? It happens in every culture with every language. In some places, the variations are relatively minor, but, nevertheless, significant. In the city of London, for example, there are more dialects than there are in all of the continental United States. Did you know that there are places along the eastern shore of the US where natives sound like they are from 16th century England? Did you ever wonder why Canadians pronounce “about” like “aboot”? I do. And I always find explanations of these differences to be fascinating. Perhaps you will too. Click here.

Take a Cleansing Breath. Now Take Another. 

Click here to read a short essay from Scott Young on dealing with anxieties. These techniques won’t work for severe bouts of anxiety, but I’ve found that they do work for the moderate levels that most people deal with regularly. (The Buddhist principle is especially strong if you can master it.)

Are Ladies Lightweights?

The average woman weighs about 15% less than the average man. So why is it that all the rules on safe drinking suggest that the average man can safely drink twice as much alcohol as the average woman?

Is this sexist? Unscientific?

It turns out to be roughly accurate. That’s because the capacity for absorbing and tolerating alcohol depends on more than just body mass. There are three factors that matter. Body mass is arguably the least important.

Here’s a brief explanation from Peter Attia. Click here. 

For Your Edification: The Best and Worst Airlines 

I’ve done a fair amount of plane travel in my life. Not millions of miles. But probably close to a million. I’ve traveled domestically at least 1,000 times and internationally at least 100. There are many people that have flown more than I have. In fact, I probably haven’t flown enough to have an informed opinion about which are the best and worst airlines. And yet, I do!

And I compare my opinions to those I see published every year by various travel magazines and newsletters. In a rating recently published by World Airline Awards, the lion’s share of the top 20 spots were divided between Asian and Arab country airlines. That’s been my experience, especially in the first-class cabin. (If you’ve never experienced first-class flight with Singapore, Qatar, or Emirates Airlines, you don’t know how luxurious first class can be.)

In comparison, US airlines generally provide their customers with a distinctly second-class experience. Even in the first-class sections on domestic flights. The equipment (which is how people in the industry refer to the planes) is often old and dirty. The flight attendants are at best officious and, more often, disagreeable. And the efficiency and reliability of the service ranges between average and disappointing. It doesn’t surprise me that only three US airlines made it into the top 50 – and that was Delta at 24, Southwest at 34, and Jet Blue at 48.

As a rule, you’re almost always better off with an Asian, Arab, European, or Australian airline when traveling internationally. In the US, Jet Blue is solid. Southwest is one step down. And Delta and the rest of the US airlines are to be avoided, if you can. (For East Coast to West Coast flights, I would recommend Virgin Airways.)

This may surprise you… 

In Delray Beach, bike lanes are ubiquitous. The new ones are painted green and have a slightly different surface coating than does the road on which they are painted. They say it’s for safety. And that seems like a good thing. Right?

Well, it would surprise our local regulators to know that bike lanes don’t make bicycling safer. On the contrary, every study that has been done on the subject has concluded that they make it less safe. This was documented ten years ago by industrial engineer John Forester, who published an 800-page book on bike safety titled Effective Cycling.

In fact, most of the things that governments use to make roads safer have the opposite effect than intended.

I remember reading a story about a town in England that didn’t have a budget to install all the stop signs and traffic lights the town elders felt were needed. So, they hired a specialist who convinced them to try something radically different: “shared streets.”

Instead of adding more lights and signs, he suggested they eliminate all of them. The only thing they’d do is alert drivers that they were approaching an intersection by changing the surface of the road.

The result? Traffic accidents went down. Significantly. Including fatalities.

And that is what has been happening in Montgomery, AL, since the city eliminated bike lanes and most traffic lights and signs in the downtown area in favor of European-style cobblestone streets and plazas shared freely by cars, bikes, and pedestrians.

It may seem counterintuitive, but when you understand what happens when you eliminate safety measures, the reduction in accidents makes perfect sense. What happens, says Chris Conway, a city engineer involved in the Montgomery transformation, is that drivers are forced to pay more attention and take more responsibility for their actions. “The more uncomfortable the driver feels,” he says, “the more he is likely to make eye contact on the street with pedestrians, other drivers and to intuitively go slower.”

I’ve seen this play out in my hometown every time the traffic lights black out after a storm. No traffic cops. No signs. Just four- and six-lane roads crisscrossing one another. And guess what? The traffic moves steadily. Drivers look out for pedestrians. Everyone is more alert and courteous.

There’s a lesson here that applies to other things we do to produce desired results. More isn’t always better.

Click here for an article on bike lanes from Forbes.

And click here for a longer article about traffic safety devices and regulations from Scientific American.

Are You Making This Mistake? 

At the end of the day, I often watch a movie or episode of a series on my iPad as a sort of reward for my day’s work. I’m not alone in this. About 90% of Americans spend time on their phones or iPads just before going to bed.

There’s problem with that. According to many studies, including a recent one by the University of Haifa, the blue light emitted from such electronic devices reduces melatonin and, therefore, shortens sleep.

The solution is simple. Watch what you want to watch earlier in the evening. But for at least a half-hour before bedtime, read something that is printed. Like an actual book or magazine.