From CA re my Aug. 30 essay on “The State of Our Economy”:
“Check out the Aug. CCI (Consumer Confidence Index). Although people with jobs naturally have more confidence than those without, the overall trend is slightly up. That’s not typically what we see heading into a recession. However, economists generally agree that all bets are off for the future if the presidency is won by the candidate who wants to impose huge tariffs on most of the things poor people buy every day. See this link.”
My Response: Thanks for the note, CA. I am aware that there are some polls out there suggesting that, as you say, “consumer confidence” has marginally improved. If you take the stock market as an indicator, it’s more than marginal.
But as I emphasized in my essay, my interest is not in what most people think or feel about the economy, but what the undecided voters in the swing states think. And I provided some data indicating that the sort of person that tends to be unaligned and independent when it comes to national elections would likely be more negative and even pessimistic when it comes to the economy.
A WSJ national poll last week shed some light on this. When voters were asked what issue mattered most to them in the election, the largest share (29%) picked the economy. This was followed by immigration (19%) and abortion (14%). “That is probably good news for Trump,” the WSJ said, noting that concern about immigration also favors him.
As for your statement that “economists generally agree that all bets are off for the future if the presidency is won by the candidate who wants to impose huge tariffs on most of the things poor people buy every day,” I have three things to say. First, I agree: Trump’s tariff ideas will definitely make middle- and working-class consumers poorer because they will be the ones to pay for those tariffs through higher prices. Second: You do know that Kamala has also promised to impose tariffs, right? Plus major tax increases that she falsely claims will affect only the 1%. Third: Most voters understand nothing about the economics of tariffs.
Bottom line: How will the undecided voters in swing states feel about the economy in November? They will feel that it’s worse than it was four years ago… because it is. Considerably worse.
From KW re my Aug. 28 announcement that this will be my last weekly issue:
“Well, here we are again. Here’s how you touched my life (for the good). I was a very early ETR subscriber and eagerly devoured your posts every day. (I wish I still had them all for reference.) Your insights led me to ETR conferences. Which led me to AWAI and Circle of Success. And your relationship with Agora led me to Stansberry Alliance and now Porter’s Partner Pass. And to Bonner Private Research, of course. More importantly, all of that improved my life dramatically and led me on a path that has enriched me in many ways. Thank you so much!
“I had the pleasure of speaking with you briefly at an ETR conference in Delray Beach, and I’ve made many connections through ETR and AWAI. Today, I run a small manufacturer’s rep agency which I am in the process of transforming into a sales and marketing agency. I am ever in your debt.”
My Response: Thanks, KW. Your letter made my day. This is why I have been writing blogs for 24 years, and why I will continue to publish a monthly version of this one in the future.
