From TA re the piece by Bill Bonner in the Aug. 1 issue: 

“I have been reading Bill Bonner for a few decades now. He has had more influence on how I see our government and politicians than any commentator out there. You have to get used to his doom and gloom, but what he says makes sense. I’ve really changed my view of how we wage war. I hope he keeps beating the drum. Maybe more eyes will be opened to what we’ve allowed our country to become.”

My Response: Me too!

From JS re my observations about the Japanese during my trip to Japan – specifically their attention to detail: 

“I think you may remember ISO 9000 – a set of international standards for quality control. Many of these standards were adopted by the Japanese years ago. They recruited an American, W. Edwards Deming, the most widely known proponent of statistical quality control, to teach them how to apply his theories. His premise was that persistent improvement heightens production quality and output, boosting customer satisfaction as costs decline. The big US car manufacturers made fun of Deming, figuring that since they were the top three manufacturers of automobiles in the world, they know what they are doing.

“But Deming was recruited by Japan, his theories adopted, and the rest is history.

“As you can see here, Toyota and Lexus still lead the way when it comes to the fewest vehicle defects.”

From AS re the Aug. 9 issue on BJJ: 

“I enjoyed your stories about BJJ. I especially liked how you brought up beating the young man when he was a kid.

“I used to play basketball in a neighborhood called Chagrin Falls Park. A lot of good players would show up there. One day, it was just me and an 11-year-old kid. Before the court filled up, we played a couple of games of one-on-one. I beat him in both games.

“Six years later, he was a high school star and went on to play in college. When people would bring up his name, I would casually mention that I used to beat him, one-on-one.

“After their facial expressions relaxed from the look of, ‘Wow, you must have been good’ or ‘This guy’s full of shit,” I would mention that he was 11 years old at the time, and I was 33.”

A New Interpretation of a Radiohead Classic 

JM sent this clip of Postmodern Jukebox (he knows I’m a big fan) performing “Creep,” featuring Effie Passero (who I’d never heard before) putting out a unique and somewhat more theatrical interpretation of this great classic.

There’s More Than One Way to Claim Victory 

JG, a new friend I’m giving some advice to on how to grow his already successful business, wrote to me late last week. He mentioned, among other news, that he’d just returned to training Brazilian Jiu Jitsu after an absence of four weeks and, perhaps because he’d lost 16 pounds, had a great comeback training session. “There are some specific things I have done to drop weight and increase lung capacity that I will share with you when we talk,” he said.

I lost weight during my nearly four weeks in Japan, but I lost only five pounds – and I can’t say that I felt the additional energy and endurance that JG experienced. But I’d like to. Losing weight – especially if it’s fat – puts less stress on the heart and lungs and, thus, helps with endurance. And as I said on Monday, endurance is one of the most important factors for success in BJJ (and every other fighting sport I can think of). Losing weight can also make for more agility.

So I’m eager to see what JG has to show me. I’m equally eager to get below 200 pounds again. I doubt that will happen unless I get on the semaglutide train, which I’m considering. Meanwhile, I have to take my BJJ victories as they come. In very small doses.

I’ve mentioned before that the four guys I train with regularly are all national and world champions.

ES, the youngest of them (in his late-20s), is a multiple national title holder. I’ve been training with him since he was a blue belt at 16. I used to beat him then. I continued to have the upper hand until about halfway through his 17th year. Never since. ES is a nationally ranked black belt now, with a body fat count of about minus-5. Since he’s still a kid, I can sometimes get him laughing during training. This tactic has allowed me to score a point or two on him, but since he’s a kid, he feels like he has to give me some painful payback immediately thereafter. To avoid the drubbing, the moment I get my points, I jump up and run around the perimeter of the mat, hands raised in celebration. (I suppose he’s not the only child in those fights.)

VS, his older brother (34), is on a hot streak in national and global competition, having taken gold (sometimes twice in a single tournament) in all of his last seven fights. He walks around at my weight, about 220, and fights at 208. But even at 220, he is built like Hercules. He is, however, the gentlest of the four in wrestling with me. (Jiu Jitsu is sometimes described as the “gentle” martial art.) Once, before one of his big fights, he was going especially easy on me and let me outscore him for three or four minutes. I got worried that he might be thinking he was losing his touch. So I bet him that he couldn’t pass my guard and submit me in five minutes. I knew he could, but I figured I could at least hold him off for a few minutes and a hard-fought victory over me would give him the confidence boost I imagined he needed. He asked me how much I was willing to bet. I was feeling cocky, so I said $100. He passed my guard and submitted me in 17 seconds.

Then there is SM, another national and world champion who walks around – or so he says – at 245. Since he fights in the ultra-heavy division, he doesn’t have to weigh in. So, I – and some of the other guys that train with him – suspect he’s even heavier. In any case, SM has a slow, controlling game, which means that once he gets hold of a wrist or ankle, it’s pretty much game over. Inch by inch he puts me down, passes my guard, mounts me, and then, instead of submitting me by a choke or joint lock, as he easily could, prefers to lay his huge chest on top of my face and make me submit for fear of suffocation. He also has an annoying habit of speaking gently to his opponents as he dominates them. (“Nice try, Mark, but you know

Finally, there is RT. At 50, RT is the oldest of the four. He walks around at 165 but competes at 10 to 20 pounds lighter. He’s been ranked #1 in the world for seven years running. It’s immensely stupid of me, but every time I train with RT, my brain says, “This guy has gray hair and weighs 50 pounds less than you. You are a black belt. You have won four regional titles. Surely, you can defeat him today.” I told RT about my bet with VS. He passed my guard and submitted me in 14 seconds!

You might be thinking: “Why would a 73-year-old man who has suffered two Achilles tendon ruptures, two rotary cuff surgeries, one ACL replacement, and another full knee replacement continue to train at BJJ and get his ass kicked for a solid hour four or five times a week?”

For me, the answer is simple.

BJJ is a great physical workout in every way – strength training, endurance training, flexibility training, and motor-response conditioning.

It is also a brain game that it is highly technical (much more so than, say, boxing or conventional wrestling). Each movement by your opponent sets up three or four responses you must make in less than a second or you will fall quickly behind. And each response of yours creates an equal number of possible movements on his part. In other words, Jiu Jitsu is a sport where you have to make hundreds of decisions every minute, each one in anticipation of hundreds of possible decisions your opponent makes. This is why it is often referred to as physical speed chess. (It’s also why it’s quite possible for a small and even a weak practitioner to dominate and defeat someone that is considerably bigger and stronger. And younger.)

It is rare to spend an hour or 90 minutes training without learning something new – something that might improve my “game” in some small way, or something that is cool because it’s technically interesting.

And there is a unique kind of comradery that can come with training BJJ. It is the trust that develops from constantly putting yourself in positions where your training partner could seriously hurt or kill you – except for the mutual agreement that when you “tap” on his body or the mat he will immediately desist. I think of it as a lighter version of how police or soldiers that are paired up over time begin to feel about one another. It’s hard to think of any other sport that would allow me to have this level of trust and appreciation for my teammates. It’s a casual but deep bond that runs through every type of social, physical, or psychological barrier.

Since the likelihood of my winning gold again is diminishing as I get older, I’ve concocted a way to enjoy winning vicariously. It works like this: I’ve pointed out to my training partners that every time they’ve won gold in recent years, they had trained with me – and beaten me handily – a week or two beforehand. “It might be a coincidence,” I’ve told them. “But if I were you, I wouldn’t take the chance of not doing that training with me.”

So it’s become something of a ritual. And since we began this ritual a couple years ago, my record is something like 40 and 4. And July 26, at the Orlando Open, three of my guys competed and came back with four gold medals!

I’m not saying that training with me beforehand was a deciding factor. But I’m not saying it didn’t help either.

Yeah, BJJ makes me happy. Happy from the exercise. Happy from the learning. Happy from the comradery. But also happy in a way that I thought I’d never again experience – the childhood joy of going out to play and playing and not wanting to stop at dinnertime.

What Matters Most (and Least) in Winning Fights… 

I can’t claim to be an expert, but I’ve learned some things about martial arts and fighters. I’ve taken lessons from and trained with many high-level amateurs and pros since I began practicing Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu 27 years ago. I’ve watched, as many fans have, countless fights. But also, because of a close association I’ve had with American Top Team, one of the largest and most successful martial arts teams, I’ve sat in the corner of dozens of fights and been in hotel rooms where fighters were being given last-minute counseling on strategy.

This is what I have learned.

Most fighters win because of skill – i.e., when their combination of skills in any particular fight is dominant over the combination of skills of their opponent.

And of all the skills it takes to win, the greatest one is fighting intelligence: the ability to recognize the strengths of one’s opponent and adjust one’s fighting strategy accordingly.

Next in importance is endurance (or gas). At the highest levels of competition, the level of endurance needed to win is extreme. Endurance is not a natural gift. It can be achieved only by extreme training.

Next is tenacity (or heart), which can be improved through practice and coaching but is mostly inherent in the psychology of the fighter before he first steps into the ring.

The least important factors in winning fights are the two that impress amateur fans the most: muscularity and ferociousness.

A massive, well-built body is undeniably impressive. But as anyone who has studied the fighting game for years knows all too well, you cannot judge a fighter’s actual power or strength in the ring by his physique when he weighs in. And as every experienced fighter knows, ferociousness, which is, at best, a style meant to intimidate one’s opponent, derives from mental weakness. You may think that a great fighter like Mike Tyson belies that contention. But notwithstanding how ferocious he looks when he fights, he wins because of his extraordinary skill and his intelligence and his tenacity.

Finally, there’s this: Among the fighters, like Tyson, that make it to the top, there are some that rise even higher. You can see what I mean here by looking at the face of the winner after he’s achieved the victory he ferociously claimed.

Speaking of Fighting… 
This Is Blatant Stupidity Born of Evil 

I’m writing this before I’ve had the chance to see how Big Media responds to that female Olympic boxer being so quickly beaten into tears by a biological man that the Olympic Committee deemed to be a female.

That something like this was allowed to happen has nothing to do with transphobia. Nor is it a “non-issue” because it is focused on a very small percentage of the population. On the contrary, it is a deeply entrenched, fast-spreading, and extremely destructive intellectual contagion whose consequences reach far beyond post-modern structuralism, intersectionality, critical race theory, and gender fluidity doctrines.

It was never about any of those supremely and transparently stupid ideas. In my opinion, it always was, and still is, about indoctrinating society’s wealthiest, most powerful, and most influential people into a cult of thinking that contradicts everything good and progressive that has occurred in human history since the 18th century.

Megyn Kelly, Jordan Peterson, Elon Musk, and countless others are correct in calling it what it is – unadulterated evil masquerading as compassion.

Click here and here and here.

Caveat Intellectualis 

My brother, who is a serious academic, once mentioned that one of the things he does to keep au courant on the literary news outside his specialty (Greek and Latin philology) is to read Literary Hub, an e-zine that covers everything from Gilgamesh to The Great Gatsby to Gone Girl.

I can see how, if you were teaching literature of whatever time and genre at a top college today, you’d want to have something clever to say about the latest literary scuttlebutt. And I have enjoyed reading Lit Hub for that. But in the last year or two, I can’t bear to even look at it because of how Woke its editorial policy has become.

Woke cultural concepts and trends are tailormade for busy executives and their party-planning spouses because they provide topical and politically correct opinions and rationales for people that don’t have time to think for themselves.

And that is why 15 minutes spent with a Woke primer like Lit Hub could be helpful for any up-and-climbing academic who has given the great majority of his waking hours to a very specific rabbit hole of literature. There simply isn’t time to find out what’s going on in the rest of the literary world, let alone identify what news bits will be conversation topics and what sort of wry or witty comment might allow one to manage one’s way through a cocktail party full of professors and graduate students without risking looking like a fool. (Which is exactly what most of the people there are hoping you will do.)

So if you work or socialize inside the world of literature, you may want to subscribe to the Lit Hub website. But I must warn you that at least 50% of everything they publish are pieces like the following:

* Andrea Freeman on the impact of systematic oppression on indigenous cuisine in the United States. (“Frybread arouses passionate feelings in its fans and detractors… but everyone agrees that it is a far cry from the pre-colonial foods.”) Click here.

* Mathangi Subramanian on how understanding her own neurodiverse character helped her understand herself. (“I fretted that, despite my diligence, my story was riddled with errors that would, at best, disappoint or, at worst, traumatize my readers.”) Click here.

“Don’t worry about people stealing your ideas. If your ideas are any good, you’ll have to ram them down people’s throats.” – Howard Aiken

Antisemitism in US and European Colleges and Universities Hasn’t Gone Away. It’s Just Summer. 

Since the school year ended, the large anti-Israeli protests have been few and far between. All students, even politically Woke, pro-Hamas supporters, have summers to enjoy. But there are still some that are hard at work. And their vitriolic antisemitism is as strong as ever.

On July 31, police announced that a suspect had been arrested in connection to the June 11 vandalism of Brooklyn Museum director Anne Pasternak’s residence and charged with criminal mischief as a hate crime. Pasternak’s residence was splashed with red paint in an apparent protest over the museum’s ties to Zionist organizations. Several Brooklyn Museum trustees were also targeted. Five additional suspects are still being sought by police.

Another Step Toward WWIII? 

According to Politico, the Biden administration has quietly given Ukraine permission to strike inside Russia using US-provided weapons for “counter-fire purposes in Kharkiv so Ukraine can hit back at Russian forces hitting them or preparing to hit them.”

Biden’s Recent Title IX Revisions Blocked 

US District Judge Terry Doughty has blocked Biden’s new Title IX guidelines that allow transgender students in the bathroom corresponding with their identity rather than biology. Doughty called the rules an “abuse of power” in an injunction that applies to four states: Louisiana, Mississippi, Montana, and Ohio.

“This is a victory for women and girls,” said Louisiana Attorney General Liz Murrill, who initiated the lawsuit in April. “When Joe Biden forced his illegal and radical gender ideology on America, Louisiana said NO.”

Chart of the Week: US Debt Reaches $35 Trillion 

Today, Sean provides visuals to illustrate the greatest threat (next to a nuclear war, which is also looming) to the world’s economy right now: US debt.

This is a subject I’ve referred to dozens of times in past issues, and I’ve been meaning to write about it at length because so many of my well-educated friends are unable to see it as a real and present danger. 

I’ll leave it to Sean to set the picture. – MF

While the media prattled on about Kamala calling Donald Trump “weird”…

A much weirder story got pushed to the back pages last week. One that will impact America far more than whoever becomes president in November.

I’m talking about the US national debt, which just hit a whopping $35 trillion.

Since January 2020, the debt has ballooned by 50%, mainly due to the wide gap between what the US government spends versus what it brings in.

And right now, 2024 is shaping up to be another year of high spending and low tax revenues, which puts us on track to add an estimated $1.9 trillion to the debt this year.

Now, the debt is just a number. It becomes a problem only when the US can no longer service that debt, putting the country at risk for default.

Higher credit risk can halt lending, which seizes the financial system, which cascades a long way down to you eventually saying, “Hey! Why can’t I buy bread anymore? And why is my retirement money worthless? And are those gunshots I hear?”

So the number we want to pay extra close attention to is how much it costs to service that debt, and what percentage of the US government’s revenue that is.

Here’s what we’re seeing: Interest payments on federal government debt has already surpassed $1 trillion over the last year.

As a share of federal revenues, federal interest payments are expected to rise to 20.3% by 2025, exceeding the previous high of 18.4% set in 1991.

This number, if it gets too high, is the “danger number” – the number that matters.

Because if the US is spending all of its tax revenue to service its debt, it won’t be able to spend money on anything else. That means more money printing, which means hyperinflation, which –I reiterate – is double-plus ungood.

How close are we to the danger number?

Well, think about this. Lenders often require that the ratio of debt to a person’s income should be less than about 30% to 40%.

The higher your debt-to-income ratio, the less likely it is that an institution will lend to you.

The US is probably going to hit 20% next year. The higher this ratio goes, the fewer people will want US government bonds.

And that puts everything we know, like, and cherish at greater risk.

This number is going to keep creeping higher under three conditions: (1) more deficit spending, (2) lagging tax revenue, and (3) high interest rates.

Since 2020, we’ve had the perfect storm of all three. And neither political party has proposed a meaningful fix.

It will be some years before we hit the point of no return, however. About 20 to 30 years at the current pace, by some estimates.

That means that, for now, bonds are still an attractive speculation – especially heading into interest rate decreases.

But otherwise, it might be wise to buy and hold a basket of stocks that generate revenue internationally. That can include American companies that do business overseas, like some of the stocks in the Legacy Portfolio.

But it can also include a portion of your portfolio going into emerging market funds or international stocks. (Just don’t expect them to offer the wild returns of tech stocks.)

And if you’re truly, immensely, can’t-sleep-at-night worried about the debt collapsing the whole economy? Here’s what you want: international real estate, foreign cash, and a mix of the three most precious metals in a crisis – gold, silver, and lead.

Personally, I’d mostly just stick to bonds and stocks.

– Sean MacIntyre

Check out Sean’s YouTube channel here.

“Terrible Racists” 

Joel Bowman, an acquaintance and colleague who writes Notes from the End of the World, recently attended a family reunion in Pigeon Forge, TN, a town of just over 6,000 people. Spending an evening in town one night, he and his wife, he says, were “confronted with some truly awful racists…”

Read his account of what happened here.

Kill Tony 

Have You Seen the Kill Tony podcast? I hadn’t until JM recommended it to me, saying, “It’s political satire, but you’ll like it.”

I did like it.

It has the three necessary elements to make political satire do its job (which is to open our minds by reducing our fears and prejudices):

* It must be timely – about topics people care about.

* It must hold a mirror up to life, as the Bard said – i.e., it must depict the target realistically.

* Its fundamental mission is to unify, not divide.

* Its fundamental emotion is tolerance, not derision.

Here’s a recent example.