Just Got Back from a Great Family Vacation on Grand Cayman Island… 

I’m back from a week in Grand Cayman with the immediate family: K, our three sons, their spouses, and six grandkids (two each). Happy to be home.

Not that I did not enjoy my time in the blistering heat of that island of sand about an hour’s flight from Miami, just southwest of Cuba and northwest of Jamaica.

Grand Cayman is a prototypical beautiful Caribbean getaway, with soft white sand beaches and crystal-clear blue and green water.

I remember it from the 1980s…

Seven Mile Beach on Grand Cayman Island, circa 1984 

Back then, the population was about 40,000 people and the largest hotel was the Holiday Inn, which had 80 rooms. I wrote a sales letter then promoting an investment conference on the island that my boss wanted to host. I think the conference fee was $700, and we were aiming at getting 100 people to show up. When, looking at the sales report a week later, we realized that we had 700 sign-ups, we had to break the conference into two, one after the other, and we had to find accommodations for all those people. We filled every little hotel and motel, and even put some guests in private homes. It was an insane crash-course introduction to the investment conference business, which is as much about the comfort and amusement of the attendees as it is about the quality of information and advice they are receiving.

I could write a book about all the frights and surprises and misadventures we lived through. But by working 20 hours a day for 15 days straight, our little crew of six people managed to pull it off, with both the attendees and the speakers giving us great reviews on our post-conference questionnaire. A great relief to us all.

My boss chose Grand Cayman because it was known as an international banking center and a “tax haven,” two things I knew nothing about at the time, and still maintain a high level of ignorance about, despite spending the intervening years publishing lots of economic and financial content.

Back then, the island had a population of about 40,000 and 400 banks and trust companies. Today, it has a population of almost 80,000 and 600 banks and trust companies. If my mental arithmetic is right, that is one bank or trust company for about every 130 residents.

So, it’s still very much an international banking center, although it no longer serves as a tax haven because of US banking laws and regulations initiated about ten years after we held our events there. The changes were made, I’ve read, to put an end to the money laundering and tax dodging that was systemic to the Caribbean/Miami cocaine industry that exploded in the mid 1980s.

But I might have to give myself a bit of credit for those restrictions since the advertisement I wrote to attract investors to our conference mentioned that they could “write off” the cost as a business expense while they learned how to “take advantage of legal tax reduction schemes.”

That was 100% true. But I presume it did not read well with the IRS and certain Congress people as I was told that it was introduced into the Congressional Record as part of a campaign that later disallowed individual investors from deducting investment conference expenses. (Sorry, guys.)

As the banks, the trust companies, and the population grew, so did tourism. Again, I’d like to give myself some credit for this since our conference was the largest-ever two-week incursion of tourism that had ever happened to Grand Cayman. Today, banking is still its largest industry, but is followed very closely by tourism, as you can see from the current photo of Seven Mile Beach below.

Seven Mile Beach 2024 

Nowadays, there are daily Miami/Grand Cayman flights, which are primarily filled with US and Canadian citizens coming to enjoy the many natural attractions that the island always had but were known only to the locals in the ‘80s because the visitors then were staying at the Holiday Inn and having meetings with bankers and trust experts in Georgetown, the capital city.

Here is where we stayed – the Ritz Carlton, which actually sits on top of the old Holiday Inn.

And here is what Georgetown looks like now – a bit busier and more colorful than it was in the 1980s.

There’s a lot to enjoy in Grand Cayman, including swimming with stingrays, visiting the underground “Crystal Caves,” walking the Mastic Trail, and diving the wreck of the USS Kittiwake (an artificial reef teeming with marine wildlife).

But, as I said, I’m happy to be back.

Humanity’s Greatest Existential Threat 

From GM, a regular contributor:

“After witnessing the stupendous failure of the Secret Service in Butler, PA (and the press conferences), and not wishing to believe it was intentional, I sought to find another excuse. I believe I may have found the answer and am anxious to share. Many of you inherently know this, but even with non-life-threatening situations it is good to be armed (poor choice of words?) with this validating info. If you have ever had to call customer service, there is a 95% (my estimate) chance you will benefit by simply remembering (in advance) the following laws of human stupidity as laid out in an article from the Quartz website. My recent call to Comcast comes to mind.

In 1976, a professor of economic history at the University of California, Berkeley, published an essay outlining the fundamental laws of a force he perceived as humanity’s greatest existential threat: Stupidity.

Law 1: Always and inevitably, everyone underestimates the number of stupid individuals in circulation.

Law 2: The probability that a certain person is stupid is independent of any other characteristic of that person.

Law 3. A stupid person is a person who causes losses to another person or to a group of persons while himself deriving no gain and even possibly incurring losses.

Law 4: Non-stupid people always underestimate the damaging power of stupid individuals. In particular, non-stupid people constantly forget that at all times and places and under any circumstances to deal and/or associate with stupid people always turns out to be a costly mistake.

Law 5: A stupid person is the most dangerous type of person.

“Click here for a full explanation of the above.” – GM

Chart of the Week: More Pain Inbound? 

As Sean mentions this week, I’d been concerned that the stock market was cruising for a bruising for some time now. Between our government’s $34 trillion debt problem, the serious problems in the retail industry, the crazy price inflation in some real estate markets, and the threat of nuclear war, I thought, “How long can this last?” 

Well, it didn’t last. I’m sure you’ve been reading about the Japanese “carry trade problem” and how it eventually triggered the recent stock market drop. So, the question I have for Sean, and the one he addresses here, is: What now? How should we feel about the state of the US economy and the future of the US stock market? And what, if anything, we should do about it? – MF

Mark Ford asked me, two months ago, why the market seemed to keep going up.

I do not think anyone is asking why the market keeps going up anymore. Now, I think, people have the level of caution and concern they should have possessed months ago.

On Monday, Aug. 5, the Japanese “carry trade” began to unwind at the same time markets were processing a slew of negative economic data about the US economy.

We do not have the space here to explain the carry trade or its implications on your retirement fund. Nor would you be able to make it through the first two pages of necessary context before you fell asleep.

So in the meantime, we have to ask ourselves a simpler question: Is the market bloodbath over? Or just beginning?

We can look at historical trends for some clues:

The table above shows the number of “significantly down” days we’ve seen in the market each year since 1928. As you can see, 2024 is the third-least-volatile year in the last 30 years, with only 10 of these drops.

So far, 2024 is an anomalously good year for stocks.

You may also notice that, going back to 1970, the market cycles between these extremes.

Low-volatility years are almost inevitably followed by higher-volatility years. And vice versa.

There’s a fairly simple investing takeaway from this.

When the market has been performing hilariously badly, and it seems that the blood will not stop flowing (like in 2022, 2020, 2011, 2009, 2008, 2002, and so on)…

Put aside money to buy more stocks.

Investors with patience understand what study after study has shown: There is a nearly inverse relationship between the realized return of stocks and their expected returns.

When stocks dip? Their future returns tend to spike. When stocks soar? Their future returns become middling.

And because stocks have soared, I expect a little bit more volatility ahead in the near term.

– Sean MacIntyre

Bet You Didn’t Know This 

I rarely find anything on Quora that merits more than a moment’s attention, but I did find this about “famous actors with unbelievable backgrounds” to be worth the 90 seconds it took me to read it.

* Leighton Meester was born in prison.

* Woody Harrelson’s father was a hit man.

* Christopher Walken was a lion tamer in a traveling circus.

* Joaquin Phoenix was born into a religious cult.

* Rose McGowan spent the first nine years of her life in the same cult.

* Christopher Lee was a member of the Special Operations Executive organization during WWII.

A 1997 BBC Report on the Viability of Internet Shopping Featuring a Young Jeff Bezos 

This is worth watching for more than one reason. First, it’s funny. Funny to see how, in 1997, the internet – even after nearly two decades of development – was still very much a thing of the future. It’s fascinating to think that the claims made back then, and characterized in this clip as not-quite-believable, were realized within just a few years and seem, in retrospect, almost inevitable. It’s also intriguing to see how much easier it is to sound smart if you are criticizing a prediction than it is to make or defend one.

Does Chiropracty Actually Work? Well, There’s This…

The literature is mixed on chiropractic therapy, as my personal experiences with it have been. In this case, it’s even more difficult to discern its effectiveness, but it looks like the giraffe is enjoying it!

A finalist in this year’s Smithsonian Magazine photo contest, this photo by Frederic Aranda shows costume/set designer John Macfarlane at work on set cloths for the Valencia Opera’s production of Tchaikovsky’s The Queen of Spades in a studio in Cardiff, Wales.

From TA re the piece by Bill Bonner in the Aug. 1 issue: 

“I have been reading Bill Bonner for a few decades now. He has had more influence on how I see our government and politicians than any commentator out there. You have to get used to his doom and gloom, but what he says makes sense. I’ve really changed my view of how we wage war. I hope he keeps beating the drum. Maybe more eyes will be opened to what we’ve allowed our country to become.”

My Response: Me too!

From JS re my observations about the Japanese during my trip to Japan – specifically their attention to detail: 

“I think you may remember ISO 9000 – a set of international standards for quality control. Many of these standards were adopted by the Japanese years ago. They recruited an American, W. Edwards Deming, the most widely known proponent of statistical quality control, to teach them how to apply his theories. His premise was that persistent improvement heightens production quality and output, boosting customer satisfaction as costs decline. The big US car manufacturers made fun of Deming, figuring that since they were the top three manufacturers of automobiles in the world, they know what they are doing.

“But Deming was recruited by Japan, his theories adopted, and the rest is history.

“As you can see here, Toyota and Lexus still lead the way when it comes to the fewest vehicle defects.”

From AS re the Aug. 9 issue on BJJ: 

“I enjoyed your stories about BJJ. I especially liked how you brought up beating the young man when he was a kid.

“I used to play basketball in a neighborhood called Chagrin Falls Park. A lot of good players would show up there. One day, it was just me and an 11-year-old kid. Before the court filled up, we played a couple of games of one-on-one. I beat him in both games.

“Six years later, he was a high school star and went on to play in college. When people would bring up his name, I would casually mention that I used to beat him, one-on-one.

“After their facial expressions relaxed from the look of, ‘Wow, you must have been good’ or ‘This guy’s full of shit,” I would mention that he was 11 years old at the time, and I was 33.”

A New Interpretation of a Radiohead Classic 

JM sent this clip of Postmodern Jukebox (he knows I’m a big fan) performing “Creep,” featuring Effie Passero (who I’d never heard before) putting out a unique and somewhat more theatrical interpretation of this great classic.