Tuesday, July 30, 2024, Delray Beach, Florida


Notes From My Journal

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What’s Going to Happen? A New Prediction… 

Since I wrote about the election last week, I have changed my mind about the COPs’ strategy – which, if I’m right, is even more clever than I’d been giving them credit for. So I’ve changed my prediction about how the election will play out.

Let’s begin with this: As I expected, Biden “decided” that he would not be running against Trump in November. I thought it would happen in the last two months of 2023 to give the COPs plenty of time to build a credible campaign for Biden’s replacement. And I believed the replacement would be Gavin Newsom with a Black woman (Michelle Obama, if they could get her) as VP.

But that’s not what happened.

Biden didn’t announce his decision at the end of 2023. Instead, we were treated to another several months of watching our president’s accelerating physical and mental decline, while Big Media and everyone around him kept telling us he was just fine and would continue to be fine for another four years.

Then suddenly, after what seemed to be a perfectly normal (for Biden) cringeworthy debate with Trump, the COPs, Hollywood, and a surging number of key Democratic leaders began to publicly question the abilities they had been so strongly defending just days and weeks earlier.

And after doggedly insisting that he would not resign, Biden apparently woke up one day and decided that the best thing for America would be for him to step aside at this eleventh hour and endorse Kamala Harris for president. Which made her – in an entirely un-Democratic move – the de facto Democratic candidate!

By having Biden wait that long to step aside, and then by having dozens of the most influential liberals in the country speak up in favor of Harris, the COPs had ingeniously converted the Democratic Convention into an endorsement party, eliminating the very likely possibility that had Biden’s announcement come months sooner, her chances for victory at the convention would have been virtually nil.

So, this is where my new theory and prediction come in.

The COPs knew that Biden wasn’t going to win if he ran in November. And they probably assumed he would step aside early, as I had predicted. When he didn’t, it was too late for Newsom. Too late even for Michelle Obama.

But there was one possible way to change the game: Schedule a debate with Trump early on, earlier than one has ever taken place, to make it clear to the country what they already knew – that Biden was not fit to serve. Then use that (perhaps with the promise of a little help in making all those Hunter-related problems go away) to get him to agree to step aside and go down in history as a loveable and loyal American.

Now there’s one more thing that needs to happen. And this is my new prediction. Sometime in the next month or so, Biden will have another health crisis and then regretfully resign from his duties as president.

It will be a heart-warming announcement. And the very next day, the presumptive candidate for president will become the actual president.

Nobody will complain. Maybe not even the Trump camp, because they will expect him to eat Harris up in debates and rallies and so on. But he won’t get the chance. Because the COPs will keep her in the basement until the election. She will make a handful of scripted statements, but she will not be allowed to face a live audience or go against Trump ad hoc.

And if Harris can resist the urge to initiate any significant political campaigns in the next 90 days… if she can stay calm and speak very little and very carefully… if she can resist the temptation to cackle and boogie too much… what might happen is that millions of Americans that currently don’t like her (or fear her) will begin to think, “Actually, she’s not that bad. And it would be cool to have our first Black/ Asian/ Female president!”

Worth Quoting

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“It’s tough to make predictions, especially about the future.” – Yogi Berra

News & Views

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Fake News and Facts About Replacing Fossil Fuels with Renewable Energy 

In the last 20 years, there has been a much-heralded effort to reduce greenhouse emissions (and, thus, inhibit climate change) by replacing the use of fossil fuels with “renewable” energy sources (e.g., wind and solar power).

There has been some debate about the core thesis, and there have been plenty of serious arguments that the current ideas in favor, including some that have been inscribed into law, will not achieve the intended objectives.

It won’t surprise you to know that I’m drawn to those sorts of skeptical perspectives. But had you asked me to give you an estimate of the success so far in reducing the level of greenhouse gasses that are released every year, I probably would have guessed that – given the hundreds of laws passed and the trillions of dollars spent over the past 20 years – it was probably in the 20% to 30% range.

And boy, would I have been wrong! Take a look at this short post by James Melville.

 

Calling for Trump’s Assassination Before the Attempted Assassination 

Lat night, I came across this piece, which aired on Sky News about three weeks ago: a number of public figures and pundits calling for – literally, calling for – someone to assassinate Trump.

What’s interesting is that the commentators consider the idea of an attempted assassination so implausible that they treat these calls for him to be killed as ludicrous.

Health & Wellness

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Another Impressive Thing About Japan 

A study was just published that answered a question I was about to research as a follow-up to my series on Japanese culture. The question: “Why does it seem that Japanese people are healthier than Americans… and why have I heard that they live longer than we do?”

The researchers collected data on the world’s most developed countries: Germany, the US, the UK, Austria, Canada, the Netherlands, Belgium, France, Sweden, Australia, Switzerland, and Japan. And guess what they discovered?

The US spends, by far, the most (at $12,800 per capita) for health products and services. Yet the life expectancy for Americans, at 77.5 years, is the lowest in the world.

And what about Japan, my new favorite foreign country?

Japan, at $5.3K, has the lowest per-capita spending on health. And, with an average of 84.1 years, the longest life expectancy of all the countries studied!

This would have surprised me six months ago. Not now.

 

Big Change in AHA Statin Recommendations 

I’ve written about statins several times in the past few years – the cholesterol-lowering drugs that, contrary to popular belief (even among many doctors), do not seem to give those that take them the benefit they want. They don’t extend life expectancy. And though they may reduce the likelihood of spending several years of your life incapacitated by a stroke, that is not even certain.

In any case, according to a press release GM sent me, new American Heart Association guidelines could reduce the number of adults eligible for statin therapy from 45.4 million to 28.3 million, potentially improving public health by decreasing unnecessary statin use.

Click here.

 

Less Fat, More Prescriptions, and Much More Money for Big Pharma

It seems that every formerly fat person I know is slimming down – significantly – by taking Ozempic or one of its cousins. After decades of failed weight-loss nutrients, medications, diets, and exercise programs, the new drugs do seem miraculous.

But it’s not just weight loss. It’s the other health benefits of going from obesity to an average weight. One of my boys, who had long suffered from abnormally high blood pressure, has seen his counts come down to the normal range. And one of my nephews saw all his markers that were pointing to adult-onset diabetes drop into the healthy range.

Here’s another benefit: Using these drugs to lose weight is also, apparently, a fantastic way to cure sleep apnea. Click here.

Worth Reading

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Escaping the Madness: Two Hikes into the Wilderness 

It’s been a crazy few weeks after three years of drama cooked up by Big Medicine, Big Government, and aided and abetted by Big Media.

As a mental dip into a refreshing mountain stream, The Free Press published this essay written by Elias Wachtel, who, as an intern for the publication in 2020, escaped from the COVID and political hysteria by deciding to disappear for a while and hike the entire 2,193-mile length of the Appalachian Trail.

And if that puts you in the mood to read another escapist adventure, here’s my account of climbing Mount Kilimanjaro in February 2010.

 

“I Do Not Need to Defend Myself for Believing That Political Candidates Should Be Chosen Democratically” 

I was going to write something like this and publish it as a Special Issue. But Freddie deBoer, the smartest leftist in the country, beat me to it.

Worth Watching

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Curb Your Enthusiasm 

I am not sure whether it’s the result of being in business with more important urgencies or a shortening attention span due to watching social media, but I have been finding it difficult to read one book and watch one movie per week, which is something I’ve been doing quite easily since I began writing Early to Rise 24 years ago.

My list of movies and series to watch keeps getting longer, but the opportunities to find 60 to 120 minutes to scratch one of them off my list are becoming rarer.

Knowing that my return trip from Tokyo to Delray Beach was going to be 28 hours in total, I figured I could put a serious dent in my reading/ watching deficit. But that didn’t happen. Instead, I spent most of my time reading essays and articles online, making notes about them, and writing briefs for this blog. Feeling like I had failed myself (and you), I forced myself to watch two things that I hoped would be worth recommending.

One was a 45-minute artsy film made by a Japanese film student, which I thought was pretty good if you don’t mind movies where very little happens. But I wasn’t sure if I could recommend it to my readers, knowing that the great majority of them would not be able to find it (it was on the Japanese Airlines channel) and that those who did would probably be bored by it.

Then, I watched the first episode of the 12th season of Curb Your Enthusiasm – and that I can recommend strongly and without hesitation. It was very funny. At several points, laughing-out-loud-on-a-plane funny.

You don’t need me to tell you anything about it, plot-wise. If you know Curb Your Enthusiasm, you know that, like Seinfeld, which was also produced and co-written by Larry David, it is about nothing much at all. Every episode is a day in the life of Larry David, a miserable, self-centered, obsessive-compulsive, endlessly kvetching Jewish guy in Hollywood. In this episode, he is paid to attend a party and mingle with the crowd, which, of course, he cannot do successfully, however hard he tries.

I found the episode refreshingly funny in a very obnoxious American way – a bracing welcome home to the USA.

The Economy & Investing

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Chart of the Week: Presidential Elections and the Stock Market 

How will the election affect the stock market? As Sean points out, there is no reliable correlation, from any number of perspectives, between election results and subsequent stock market performance. One reason is that the stock market is responsive to many factors that are mostly economic rather than political. And even if a conservative, pro-business, tax-reducing candidate wins, experienced stock market pros know that any substantial legislation enacted in one term of office tends to have its impact four to seven years later. So we might see an upward bump if Trump wins – or a downward move if Harris wins. But those will be temporary. Enough, perhaps, to trade on (although the odds are so obvious, the gains won’t be great). But in my own portfolio – the one that Dominick and Sean manage – there will be no changes made as a result of what happens in November. – MF

During my recent trip to Japan, I received one question repeatedly: How will the US presidential election affect the stock market?

Now that Kamala Harris is the presumptive Democratic nominee, I want to revisit this question and offer what I hope will be received as a healthy, nonpartisan dose of “perspective.”

Take a look at this chart showing how the markets performed under every presidency for the last 60 years:

Under both Democratic and Republican presidents, the stock market generally trends up long term.

Why?

Because presidents have little to no control over the things that affect stock prices.

For example, George W. Bush’s presidency was marked by the September 11 attacks on the World Trade Center, the Enron Scandal, and the 2008 Great Financial Crisis.

The market went down, of course. As it would have regardless of party, policy, or person.

To further emphasize this point, take a look at this chart that shows the growth of a $10,000 investment if you only invested during Republican presidencies (the red line), Democratic presidencies (the blue line), or just bought and held the market the whole time (gray).

Choosing to invest in the S&P 500 only during Democratic presidencies since 1950 and sticking to cash otherwise resulted in a 5.11% annualized return. Similarly, a strategy of investing exclusively during Republican presidencies generated an even smaller 2.8% annualized return.

Though there have been several peaks and valleys along the way, the S&P 500 has grown in value over the long term regardless of who’s in office.

While elections may create some short-term uncertainty, simply “staying the course” produces the best results for investors.

Let me put this as bluntly as I can…

Through wars, recessions, inflation, onerous regulation, deregulation, high taxes, low taxes, welfare, housing crises, hyper-socialist policies, hyper-capitalist policies, liberals, conservatives, moderates…

The market has trended up.

The only guaranteed way to lose out on money is to make major investment decisions based on a president’s political party.

So don’t do it.

– Sean MacIntyre

Check out Sean’s YouTube channel here.

Fun and/or Interesting

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Five Quick Bites 

* Interesting. Thanks to TS for this clip – restored film of Paris during its prime, originally shot by the famous Lumiere brothers, who preserved so many beautiful images of the world at this time.

* Fun. Famous last words. Click here.

* Interesting. The five richest women in the world. Click here.

* Fun. Click here to watch this extraordinary video of 100,000 dominos falling.

* Interesting. Life advice from Warren Buffett. Click here.

Photo of the Week

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An Entry in Smithsonian Magazine’s Annual Photo Contest: 
Longfin Bannerfish Nibbling at a Jellyfish Near Qaruh Island (Kuwait) 

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