“What City Kids Learn on My Farm” 

When they became empty-nesters, Larissa Phillips and her husband decided to give urban children and their parents a chance to spend a week on their 15-acre “hobby” farm. The idea was to provide an opportunity for the kids to learn directly, from experience, facts about life that they could not possibly learn growing up in New York.

In an essay in The Free Press, Phillips talks about how the program works.

“Here are some things I have taught the kids who visit my farm,” she writes. “Animals don’t care about your feelings and sometimes we kill them to eat them. It doesn’t matter how desperately you want to find more eggs, the hens aren’t going to lay on demand. Tomatoes aren’t ripe in June. The stalls aren’t going to clean themselves, and stings aren’t really a big deal. And there will always be poop.”

There is nothing in the essay that would shock anyone with any common sense. But it made me feel like there is some hope left in the world if there are still people like Larissa Phillips and her husband pushing back against the madness.

You can read the whole thing here.

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It Feels Like the Garden of Eden 

I’m neck deep into finishing three separate presentations I’ll be delivering in Tokyo next week. Two of them account for three hours of speaking to 2,000 paid attendees. The third one is a presentation to 20 people that have paid $5,000 apiece to ask me questions.

I’m feeling a lot of pressure to deliver. What makes this especially challenging is that, in order to prepare the translators, I have to basically write out the presentations almost verbatim and get it to them a week before the event… which is NOW!

Needless to say, this morning, when I was told that a new video I had commissioned for Paradise Palms had been completed, my stress levels were sky-high. It is a short but dramatic tour of the gardens, set to music. I watched it and it calmed my nerves for a while.

Which is to say, I like the way it came out. Click here and let me know what you think.

(Make sure you hit the start arrow to activate the sound.)

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Bad News: More Voting Fraud 

Two political leaders in Connecticut were arrested and charged with election fraud last week. City Councilman Alfredo Castillo, Vice Chair of Bridgeport’s Democrat Party, and Wanda Geter-Pataky, head of the city’s Democratic Town Committee, have allegedly been charged with election fraud in connection with absentee ballots for the 2019 mayoral primary. Campaign workers Nilsa Heredia and Josephine Edmonds were also charged with election fraud and unlawfully possessing another person’s absentee ballot. Click here and here.

 

Good News: Victory for Free Speech: Stanford Shuts Down Censorship Operation 

The Stanford Internet Observatory, which led mass censorship efforts for the US government, has dismissed its leaders, Renée DiResta and Alex Stamos. Click here.

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Americans Are Still Losing Money on Their Money 

As the Fed raised interest rates over the past two years, the returns on bonds and other debt instruments have increased substantially. While I’ve seen so many investment options become more expensive and/or more risky, the lure of getting 4.5% to 5.5% guaranteed is getting stronger. Such ROIs are still only a point or two above inflation, but it’s still a lot better than what I was getting previously – which in some cases was less than one-half of one percent.

That, by the way, is what you can expect from a bank savings account these days. One-half of one percent. Who would want to see the real value of their savings depreciate every year?

A whole lot of people, apparently. According to the WSJ, commercial banks are currently holding about $17.5 trillion in their vaults (on their ledgers). That is a whole lotta money sitting there and losing money. Click here.

I wrote the above before I saw Sean’s column this week. His thoughts and his data will give you the bigger picture. – MF

 

Chart of the Week: The Effect of Interest Rate Expenses

This week’s chart comes by way of The Kobeissi Letter, which had this to say:

For the first time in history, annual interest payments on US national debt will overtake defense spending in 2024, according to the CBO.

It is projected that for the full Fiscal Year 2024 (FY 2024), interest spending will hit $900 BILLION.

In Q1 2024, interest costs hit $1 trillion on an annualized basis and were $29 billion higher than defense outlays.

In the first 7 months of FY 2024, interest was also higher than spending on Medicaid, Medicare, and Defense, at $514 billion.

Meanwhile, in 2023, interest as % of GDP was the highest in 25 years and even exceeded World War II levels.

The US government needs lower interest rates more than ever.

As bad as $900 billion spent on debt servicing sounds, the US is projected to spend $6.5 trillion and bring in $4.9 trillion in 2024.

To make an analogy: Lenders typically look for a debt expenses-to-income ratio of 36% or lower. $900 billion is 18.3% of the US’s projected revenue. So we’re about halfway to the point where a theoretical lender would deny the US a loan on that basis.

But, importantly, debt servicing is economically stimulative. So is deficit spending. Government tax revenue would not remain flat if both persist. We’d see growth.

The whole thing is a calculus problem. Fortunately, someone else already did the math.

As I related in my column in the May 1 issue, we have about 20 years, probably less, before the US public debt spirals out of control. And that’s if the crazy monetary and fiscal policies we have persist.

But that likelihood will diminish if any combination of four things happens: Lower interest rates, lower government spending, steadily higher inflation, and higher taxes.

Of those four, we’re likely to see lower interest rates the soonest, though certainly not as low as we’ve come to expect since 2008.

The Swiss central bank recently lowered rates. As did the European Central Bank and the Bank of Canada.

Now that headline unemployment in the US is creeping up above 4%, we’re starting to see some shakiness in the job market.

And now that Target, Walgreens, Walmart, and Amazon are lowering prices, we’re going to see inflation start to level out. Rates were raised to combat high inflation. Now that deflation is happening in some sectors of the economy, there’s less of a need to hold high interest rates in the first place.

I stand by what I’ve said in the past: We’re probably going to see some rate cuts in late 2024, and we’re definitely going to see some in 2025.

This will be good for bonds and bond funds. It might also be good for profitable dividend-paying companies and utilities. And it will probably be bad for growth stocks in the short term, but beneficial long term.

Allocate accordingly.

– Sean MacIntyre

Check out Sean’s YouTube channel here.

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Hit Man

Premiered at the Venice Film Festival Sept. 5, 2023
Released in select theaters in the US May 24, 2024
Streaming on Netflix as of June 7, 2024
Directed and co-written (with Glen Powell) by Richard Linklater
Starring Glen Powell, Adria Arjona, Austin Amelio, and Retta

Watch Time: 115 min.

When we watch movies together, which is about once a week, K and I take turns making the selections. This past weekend, she chose Hit Man, a recent release on Netflix that she said had received rave reviews.

Plot: A mild-mannered professor moonlighting as a fake hit man ignites a chain reaction of trouble when he falls for a potential client.

It is a dark comedy loosely based on a 2001 article in Texas Monthly by Skip Hollandsworth – the true story of undercover hit man Gary Johnson. And in my opinion, the true story would have made a fascinating documentary, maybe even a very good movie, had Linklater and Powell not tampered with it as much as they did. (Click here for the facts.)

But that’s my opinion. As I said, Hit Man received rave reviews… and I don’t know why.

It has a good premise: A nerdy physics teacher gets a part-time job working for a police sting operation. He is hired to work the computers in the stake-out truck, but one day he has to play the role of the supposed hit man, talking to and taping suspects who believe they are paying him money to have someone killed.

The first 30 minutes of the movie is that scene repeated about six or eight times. Then the plot changes: The nerdy hit man falls in love with one of his targets – an irresistibly sexy woman (Adria Arjona) who claims she is being abused by her husband. Ten or 15 minutes of hot and romantic comedy follow, then the plot sort of falls asleep until, about 30 minutes before the end, there is another plot twist. “Okay,” I thought. “Not great so far, but maybe this is going to pay off.”

But the denouement didn’t live up to my expectations. It was weirdly immoral in the most disturbing way. It actually depressed my mood for the rest of the evening.

I checked again today and, yes, Hit Man got almost universal praise from critics.

I’m wondering: What I was missing?

Critical Reception 

* “This is a quite entertaining romantic comedy that is masquerading as a fake film noir for a good portion of the film.” (Brian Tallerico on the Roger Ebert website)

* “Hit Man reveals itself in classic Linklater fashion. Below the shiny and accessible surface lies something more expansive, waiting for anyone that might be open to it.” (Robert Levin, Newsday)

* “Hit Man offers pleasure on numerous fronts: the playful chemistry between Powell and Arjona; the funny camaraderie between Gary and the cops; the screenplay’s elegantly twisty triangles.” (Moira MacDonald, Seattle Times)

You can watch the trailer here.

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What I learned about medical “meta studies” in this essay by Toby Rogers obliterated the naïve trust I’ve had in them.

“All people of good faith should be troubled by the information I lay out below,” he writes. “It took me eight years to figure out how to describe this problem and it’s massive – it threatens the very existence of humanity.”

Read on here.

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The Masked Musician 

Is she amazing or what? Is all this music coming from just one instrument? Plus, she has beautiful eyes! Is the ever going to take off that mask?

Marketing idea: Playing without the mask as a paid upgrade to her vlog?

Click here.

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Five Quick Bites

Interesting. Scientists confirm that elephants have a very sophisticated language, which includes particular names for individual elephants. Click here.

*Interesting. There are still plenty of everyday heroes (and heroines) out there. Click here and here and here for a few examples.

Is this another everyday hero? Or is it toxic masculinity?

Interesting. Scott Galloway shares the uncomfortable facts of DEI. Click here.

Fun and Interesting. One of many reasons I like Elon Musk. Click here.

Fun and Interesting. Contronyms? So that’s what you call them! Click here.

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