Gun Control: I Said I’d Get Back to You

As promised, I’ve spent a fair amount of time this week researching the question I asked on Tuesday: Do gun control policies reduce gun-related deaths?

What I discovered is that most of what one is likely to read about the gun control issue is influenced by political leaning and based on unproven theories, anecdotal evidence, and correlative (i.e., non-scientific) studies.

A study conducted by the Rand Corporation reviewed most of the research published between 1995 and 2020. In the introduction to the report, the authors acknowledged that “a lot of what is out there are cross-sectional studies – observational research that basically just compares gun violence statistics at one point in time in a state that has a specific law to those in a state that doesn’t. That type of study is prone to mixing up correlation and causation,” they said.

In fact, they found only one set of laws that were conclusive: laws that restricted child access to guns. These significantly and incontestably reduce firearm suicide, unintentional self-injuries and death, and homicides among young people.

However, they also said that, despite the flaws among the studies and the biases among the conclusions, there was more evidence than not that gun control laws work. Except for drug-related murders and accidental killings, gun control laws do reduce gun-related deaths. Not greatly, but to a degree. That’s what they think.

What I think… 

Considering that gun control is such a powerful political issue, I expect that future studies will continue to be flawed by biased intent and/or unmerited conclusions. (A Democrat will tell you that the US has more gun-related deaths than any developed country. A Republican will tell you that if you control for just one factor – population – the US is not even in the top 10.)

To know for sure whether gun control laws reduce gun-related deaths, we need more randomized studies controlled by every factor that might count, including age, wealth, location, race, religion, and culture. Since that won’t happen any time soon, I’m going to have to hope for the best but prepare for the worst. And I suppose that means that I’ll continue my interactions with people, but assume that they are packing heat. As to whether I will… I’m not going to say.

Interesting 

* The US has more registered guns (393 million) than any other country in the world, with an average of 1.2 per person.

* Gun-related deaths in the US rose from 34,000 in 2012 to 48,000 in 2022.

* Gun-related killings by type: Suicide 58%; Homicide 39%; Accidental 2%; and Police Shooting 1.2%.

* According to Pew research, most Americans on both sides of the aisle agree on two questions about gun control. 85% of Republicans and 90% of Democrats believe that people with a mental illness should not be allowed to purchase guns. 70% of Republicans and 92% of Democrats support background checks for private and gun show sales. However, when it comes to expanding concealed carry rights, banning assault weapons, and tracking gun sales though a federal database, Democrats are strongly supportive, while Republicans are strongly negative.

One of the minor debates stemming from this issue is the question of whether “guns kill people” or “people kill people.” Here is an example of someone expressing the former position.

And here is a comic response.