Will Office Work Ever Be the Same? 

The government-mandated COVID lockdowns created, almost instantly, a nationwide experiment in remote working. Since the lockdowns ended, supermarkets, big box stores, sports arenas, and airplanes are full again. And yet, office buildings are mostly empty.

One of the half-dozen businesses in which I have an interest shut its headquarters early on and is still operating 100% remotely, with no plans to bring employees back together under one roof. The others kept their offices open, and then, when the lockdowns were lifted, encouraged their employees to return, but without issuing Elon Musk-type mandates.

The soft push hasn’t worked very well. I walked through six buildings last week when I was in Baltimore. Quiet. Empty. Eerie. The workspaces were 80% to 90% unoccupied.

 

Is this a good or a bad thing? 

My partners and I have been debating this since the lockdowns began. As publishers, 95% of our employees work on keyboards. Which means that, in theory, 95% of them can do their work remotely.

There are indisputable advantages to working remotely. For both employees and employers. Employees spend zero time commuting to and from the office. They can work from pretty much anywhere. And most of them have flexibility as to their hours.

For employers, remote working means a significant savings. Not just in rent and/or mortgage payments, but in taxes, utility bills, and a hundred other expenses associated with having dozens or hundreds of employees in the same location.

In these debates, I’ve been mostly on the “Let them work remotely” side. My argument is based on my experience. For one thing, I am more in contact with my partners, colleagues, and employees now through Zoom than I have ever been. Plus, I am saving countless dreary days each year by not flying back and forth to Baltimore and around the rest of the world.

Although I can’t say with certainty that my experience is reflective of most, I have that prejudice. And so, I’ve been resisting any suggestions that we insist on employees getting back to the office five days a week. My gut tells me that one or two mandated office days per week is enough. It allows for some human contact, which is good for building personal trust, without taking on all the extra time and costs of a running a full office.

It’s too early to know for sure how this remote working experiment will turn out, but there is already a fair amount of data that supports it. For example, a recently published report on vacationing Americans found that:

* 60% of professionals are working more on vacations than they did prior to 2020.

* 63% are taking shorter-than-usual vacations.

* 37% are logging on multiple times per day during vacations, up from 19% in 2021.

Another report, this one by Microsoft Teams, saw a 42% rise in chats per person after normal work hours. Yet another one showed that people are saving nearly six hours weekly by commuting less. But they’re also spending half of that saved time… doing more work. (That ties in with my own experience. I’ve been working more hours than I did before. (And this is not a feeling, but a fact. For 20 years, I’ve kept a daily log of my activities.

My Two-Year Prediction

I think the five-day workweek is done for office workers in most industries. I think we’ll be seeing executive employees at their desks on average three days a week. And for employees in the lower ranks – accountants, bookkeepers, customer service reps, salespeople, and data processing people – we’ll be seeing them in the office just once a week.

Behind Amazon’s Growing Revenues 

The government lockdown was good for Amazon. Retail shopping ceased, giving anyone that wasn’t already familiar with Amazon shopping to get used to the ease, simplicity, and value of it.

When demand began increasing exponentially two years ago, I wondered how the quality and punctuality of Amazon’s service would hold up under the extra pressure. And it held up very well. Amazon has maintained its top position in the minds of US consumers as faster, more reliable, and cheap.

This may help explain why Amazon’s digital ad revenue grew 18% year-over-year to $8.76 billion last quarter. More than analysts expected and outpacing Google and Facebook. (In fact, Facebook’s revenue shrank for the first time ever by 1.5%.)

This is a trend that is likely to continue because of several factors:

* Amazon is positioned better for shopping. Users go to Apple for social entertainment. They go to Google to find out something. But they go to Amazon to shop and buy.

* Apple’s recent privacy update, where the company gave users the right to opt out of targeted marketing, has made Apple ad space less attractive to direct-response advertisers.

* As a result of the above, Amazon’s ads are cheaper – about 70% cheaper than Google and 44% cheaper than Facebook.

Fun Fact: Amazon has a virtual product placement tool, meaning it can insert brands into its TV shows and movies in postproduction. Click here.

 

The Good News Part of the Bad News for Warren Buffett

Warren Buffett is considered by many to be the most successful investor of all time. Berkshire Hathaway, his conglomerate of companies and shareholdings, is so large now that it can no longer follow all of the principles that made it so successful in its early years. Still, under Warren Buffett’s and Charlie Munger’s guidance, it’s done remarkably well in recent years.

In the second quarter of this year, for example, it had nearly $10 billion in operating earnings. That was up nearly 40% from the same period last year.

“But wait,” you say. “Its stock portfolio posted a $53 billion loss!”

That’s true. And it sounds bad. But it’s not.

Since the beginning of this year, the stock market generally is down 20%. Even the S&P 500, which is built to better sustain market drops, is down 13%. Meanwhile, Berkshire Hathaway’s stock portfolio is down only 2.5%. By any sensible measure, that’s pretty darn good!

Worth Noting: One reason for the above-average performance of Berkshire Hathaway is Buffett’s appetite for insurance companies and fossil fuels. Since March, he has been adding to its stake in Occidental Petroleum, the best-performing stock in the S&P 500 this year. Click here.

Can This Old Dog Learn This New Trick? 

I’ve been told more than once that I have a rather undiplomatic communication style when talking about business problems and solutions. I’m quick to arrive at a conclusion. I push my opinion strongly. And I’m blunt.

I would describe it as passionate and supportive. That’s how it feels to me. But when it comes to communication, it doesn’t matter what the communicator feels. What matters is how well the message gets across and what, if any, the unintended consequences are.

I’ve been communicating this way for more than 40 years. And with dozens of businesses and hundreds of executives. Overall, it’s worked for me. And for the businesses I’ve grown.

That doesn’t mean a kinder and gentler version of what I do would not have worked better. I don’t know. Neither do my critics.

But I believe – no, I know – that there is a better way to communicate my criticisms and suggestions. And I want to learn. In fact, I’m getting coaching right now from a partner and colleague who is very good at this skill I haven’t yet mastered. So, there’s hope!

I was reminded of my struggle to make the change when I saw this clip about Katelyn Ohashi, the Olympian gymnast whose career was turned around when her coach figured out how to be more supportive. Click here.

Argo (2012)

Directed by Ben Affleck

Starring Ben Affleck, Bryan Cranston, Alan Arkin, and John Goodman

Available on various streaming services, including Netflix and Amazon Prime

I saw Argo when it came out in 2012. I remembered it as being intense – almost nerve-wracking. And that’s an accomplishment, because it’s based on true events. I was aware of those events and, thus, how the story would end. But, as Aristotle pointed out, that’s the sign of a good drama. You can be familiar with the characters. You can know what happens. And yet, it will grip you and stay with you for days or weeks or sometimes years!

Argo did that for me. And credit must be given to the actors. But above all, IMHO, to the director. In this case, a young actor and unproven director named Ben Affleck.

The Plot 

On Nov. 4, 1979, during the Carter administration, 52 American citizens, including six diplomats, were held hostage by Iranian terrorists in the US embassy in Tehran for 444 days. It was all over the news. What wasn’t in the news was that just before the embassy was taken over, nine embassy workers snuck out and made their way to the Canadian embassy, where they stayed hidden while the CIA tried to figure out how to bring them home.

What I Liked About It 

* The cinematography: It sometimes felt a bit theatrical – in the sense of a stage play. This was typically when the characters were indoors and seated around a table. But it had the advantage of bringing the interactions of the actors closer to the camera, which gave their conversations more intensity.

* The direction: The movie has a docudrama feeling that, while not overbearing, does add to the verisimilitude and urgency of every scene. Kudos to a young Affleck.

* The editing: Brilliant. The cuts. The timing of the scenes. There was never a single minute that felt unnecessary or lax or elongated.

* The photography: Lots of little tricks that helped enhance the paranoid feeling throughout.

* The script: It could have been, but wasn’t, a good-guys vs. bad-guys story. It acknowledged the meddling of the US in Iran’s affairs to secure its private and geopolitical interests.

What I Didn’t Like So Much 

The backstory on the main character – the good dad trying to hold together a broken family. A little cliché.

Critical Reception 

Argo was nominated for seven Oscars and ended up winning three of them, including Best Picture. It also won the top prize at the Golden Globes and British Film Academy Awards.

* “Ben Affleck has delivered a knuckle-muncher of a thriller and a satire on Hollywood, both in one unlikely package.” (Kate Muir, Times/UK)

* “If there’s one lesson to be gleaned from director Ben Affleck’s relentlessly tense, painstakingly detailed Argo, it’s that we should consider the possibility that our history has been manipulated more than many of us would care to admit.” (Jason Buchanan, TV Guide)

* “Argo has that solid, kick-the-tires feel of those studio films from the 70s that were about something but also entertained. Only it’s as laugh outright amusing as it is sobering.” (Lisa Kennedy, Denver Post)

You can watch the trailer here.

And click here to read an article about the historical accuracy of the movie.

Savannah, Georgia

I flew from Baltimore last week to Savannah, where I spent a long weekend with K before meeting the kids and grandkids at a resort called the Palmetto Bluffs Montage in South Carolina. This is a family week for me, which means I am working no more than four hours a day. Okay, yesterday I worked eight hours, but someone has to pay the bills. And anyway, who’s counting?

This was the third time I’ve been to Savannah. Each time, I’ve liked it better than the last. It sits on the Georgian coast, on the Savannah river, across from South Carolina. It is a beautiful city in the southern style, with dozens of small, well-kept parks, cobblestoned streets, stately Civil War monuments of OWM (Old White Men) and newer statues of YBW (Young Black Women). It has a fine collection of 19th century churches and public beaches, including the Gothic-Revival Cathedral of St. John the Baptist, a river walk reminiscent of Bourbon Street, museums, a theater district, good restaurants, great food, etc.

And tying it all together, are thousands of 100- and 200-year-old live oaks, with their heavy horizontal branches, draped with Spanish moss, arching over the streets and parks.

A Few Fun Facts About Savannah 

* The “Life is like a box of chocolates” scene in Forrest Gump was filmed in Savannah’s Chippewa Square.

* Instead of burning it to the ground, as he had done a month earlier with Atlanta, General Sherman gave Savannah to President Lincoln on Dec. 22, 1864 as a Christmas gift.

* Savannah’s Spanish moss is not actually a moss. It’s a close cousin to the pineapple.

* Savannah’s First African Baptist Church, a stop on the Underground Railroad, was the first Black church in the country.

* When Savannah was founded in the 1700s, the founder, James Edward Oglethorpe, made many things illegal, including Catholicism, alcohol, and lawyers.

10 Chess Hacks

I’ve never been very good at chess. But I think, probably due to an exaggerated sense of my intelligence, that I should be.

I’ve been training on a few apps, and there are many. The better ones allow you to adjust the difficulty level upwards as you progress. And I’ve found that if I move up the level by, say, 5%, my win percentage drops from about 70% to about 10%. That’s not fun, so I’ve settled on making the smallest increments that allow me to win most of the time.

I’ve wondered if this is the right thing to do. Recently, TS, a friend, colleague, and subscriber, sent me this “excellent overview of specific, proven methods for performance improvement.”

The overview comes from Scott Young, a young man that has some pretty impressive credentials when it comes to self-teaching. Among them, the two-year long MIT Challenge, where he attempted to learn MIT’s four-year computer science curriculum without taking classes, and “The Year Without English,” where he attempted to learn four languages in one year.

Young lists 10 chess hacks, the eighth of which made me feel good about what I’m doing. Click here.

“The game of chess is not merely an idle amusement. Several very valuable qualities of the mind, useful in the course of human life, are to be acquired or strengthened by it…. Life is a kind of Chess, in which we have often points to gain, and competitors or adversaries to contend with.” – Benjamin Franklin

Verisimilitude is the appearance of being true or real. As I used it today in my review of Argo. “The movie has a docudrama feeling that, while not overbearing, does add to the verisimilitude and urgency of every scene.”

Re Tuesday’s issue: 

“Don’t assume the Inflation Creation Act is a done deal. We must act positive. Positive that the idiots in the House will squabble on this as they have in the past, and allow this to die on the vine.” – TM

“You mentioned you weren’t sure what to do with the cash coming in from your rental real estate. You might consider rolling T-bills. The 4-week bill is currently paying around 2%. You can buy them commission-free here.Setting up an account is easy. It’s what I’m doing with some of my idle cash.” – RI

It pays to be smart. I mean high-IQ smart. People with an above-average IQ do better in just about everything from career status to income to net worth – and even to health and happiness. Then there are the super-smart people. People with 150+ IQs.

One such person, Marilyn vos Savant, said to have the highest IQ ever recorded, has been writing the “Ask Marilyn” column for Parade magazine since 1986. She is perhaps most famous for her Sept. 9, 1990 column, where she came up with the answer to a brain teaser that has become known as the “Monty Hall problem”…