Bits and Pieces 

The Problem With Managers Managing Up

When you were the founder and CEO, you knew the organization inside and out. Now, half retired, what you know about the business comes through the CEO you hired when you bumped yourself upstairs.

He’s impressed you. You meet with him once a month. He’s prepared. He’s positive. And he gives you good news: Revenues are strong. Product development is progressing at a good pace. The company reputation on social media is strong. Employees are working hard and happy.

You are pleased. He’s really on top of things. You picked the right guy. You can relax a little.

A year later, the numbers aren’t as strong. Revenues are still high, but profits are dropping. New product development has slowed. Refunds are climbing. You ask questions. He has a good explanation for everything. Moreover, he has already put into place solutions that will get the business back on track. He is upbeat and confident. You want to believe him. So, you do.

Six months later,  you look at the P&Ls and the balance sheet. Revenues are down. Profits are negative. Debt is up. And two key executives have quit. You know that he will have a good explanation for everything, and a plan to get back on track.

But it’s too late for that. You have a very serious problem on your hands. The trajectory of the business is downward. The momentum, once supporting growth, has reversed. You know you have to replace him and begin rebuilding again. But replace him with whom? Who can you get to come in and save the company now?

Some version of this has happened to me several times in my career. And every time it happened, I wondered, “How did I not see this coming?”

The answer is that I did see it coming. But I chose to ignore it. Because:

* The CEO had a superpower I wasn’t aware of when I hired him: He was superbly good at managing me – my beliefs, my expectations, and my hopes.

* As a passive participant in the business, I wanted to believe him. Disbelieving him would have meant making some tough decisions and getting active again.

Lessons learned:

When a CEO always has a “good” explanation for every problem that arises and an inordinately positive expectation of solving it, be suspicious. Real-life business doesn’t work that way. Remember when you were the CEO? Do you remember how often you were distressed about problems and uncertain about how to fix them? That’s reality.

The reason CEOs report to boards is not just to report the numbers, but to seek guidance when needed. When a CEO knows exactly what to do in every situation, you should assume he is bluffing and resist the temptation to believe him.

You should never, ever micromanage a CEO. But when the numbers are wrong and the excuses are glib, you should definitely get actively involved. Accept that as your duty, as a board member, to the business.

Be cognizant of your unconscious motivation to believe easy explanations and satisfying promises. It could be that you simply don’t want to get back into the trenches. Don’t chastise yourself for that. It’s normal. But know this: The moment you do get active again, you will be energized. You will know that you are doing the right thing. For yourself and for the business.

Interesting: How Blood Pressure Works

Paulo, one of my trainers, takes my blood pressure before and after each workout. He knows a lot more about health than I do. And he seems to think it’s important. He’s done his best to educate me. But between his accent (Portuguese) and my dimming brain, I’ve not made much progress in comprehending what, exactly, this measurement measures.

I came across this short video yesterday. I found it to be a good and helpful introduction…

 The Digital Dollar: Step One

On Jan. 19, the Federal Reserve announced that it was “opening a review to determine the feasibility of having a US digital dollar.”

Chairman Jerome Power said the Fed was “looking forward to engaging with the public, elected representatives, and a broad range of stakeholders… to examine the positives and negatives of a central bank digital currency in the United States.”

I predicted this would happen in the June 28, 2021 issue. But I didn’t think the effort would begin this quickly. I suggested that the government would make its move gradually. Like this:

Step 1. It would quietly encourage the use of digital currencies, particularly those introduced by Google, Amazon, Apple, and other big government allies.

Step 2. It would introduce the digital dollar, with little or no fanfare to avoid scrutiny.

Step 3. It would subordinate the Big Tech currencies to the digital dollar, also as discreetly as possible.

Step 4. It would begin a national campaign (supported by Big Tech) against Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies as vehicles for crime.

Step 5. It would outlaw cryptocurrencies and offer free exchange for the digital dollar (or any of its subordinate, Big Tech equivalencies).

Step 6. It would go after those that did not surrender their cryptocurrencies.

At that point, I said, the digital dollar would have taken over, and the government (and Big Tech) would have full financial control of its citizens.

Stay tuned…

Great Places to Visit: Going-to-the-Sun Road, Montana

Going-to-the-Sun Road, in Montana’s Glacier National Park, is reportedly one of the most breathtaking drives in the country. The road opened in 1933, though the stretch wasn’t fully paved until 1952. Going-to-the-Sun Road is a feat of modern engineering. Built at high elevation and along sheer cliffs, it stretches for 50 narrow, winding miles, among the park’s best scenic overlooks. Visit in summer. The road is 0ff-limits to tourists in winter due to snow and ice.

Click here.

Readers Write… “You are wrong about New York!” 

KK wrote to “take umbrage” with my characterization of New York in the Jan. 12 issue as a dangerous sh*thole.

Re taxpayers fleeing: 

* What I said – “From 2012 to 2018, 200,000 left the city. In 2021, 300,000 fled, most of them high-income earners.”

* What he said – As a percentage (3.5%), these numbers are “statistically insignificant.”

Re businesses lost:  

* What I said – “New York has also lost many big and vibrant businesses due to higher taxes and soaring crime. And it has lost hundreds of restaurants and retail stores due to the COVID lockdown.” 

* What he said – “I can assure you there is no problem finding a great place to eat or shop. Many of the closed restaurants will be missed only by office workers who are not here anyway.”

Re the city’s infrastructure and sanitation: 

* What I said – “New York has become the dirtiest city in the country. Its infrastructure is crumbling. Its sanitation is Third World.” 

* What he said – “I watch the garbage/recycling being hauled away twice a week as well as the streets being swept. Unless they have changed the definition of ‘Third World,’ this is utterly false. NYC is cleanest it has been in the six years I have lived here.”

 Re the increase in violent crime:  

* What I said – “Murders are up 50%. Rapes are up 25%. Even my wokest friends, loyal denizens of the city, feel it’s unsafe to take a walk at night.” 

* What he said – “I personally know only one person who has been mugged recently.” Then he showed me a study that indicated that violent crimes are a tad higher in my hometown of Delray Beach (at 6.82 per 1,000) than in NYC (at 5.8).

I wanted to put in the time to refute KK’s refutation and further strengthen my case, but I’m busy in LA (another sh*thole) with family, so I’m going to have to wing it here. This is my response…

 Re taxpayers fleeing: 

3.5% is significant. Keep that up for five years and you are at a loss of 1.5 million state income taxpayers, amounting to a tax base of nearly $300 billion. (At NYC’s median income of $190,000.)

Re businesses lost: 

As far as smaller businesses are concerned, KK is right. The pandemic not only caused record-level closures of small businesses, but also record-breaking starts. So long as NYC’s economy is in recovery mode, shuttered restaurants and other retail businesses will be replaced. But for its economy to recover and stay strong, the city needs to be a center for big finance and big business. And now that the corporate world has learned that it can do business from just about anywhere, why would they stay in super-high tax and high cost locations like NYC?

Re the city’s infrastructure and sanitation: 

I haven’t been in NYC for more than a year. KK lives there. Point to him.

Re the increase in violent crime:  

If you live in an affluent neighborhood anywhere in the world, you won’t notice a rise in murders and other violent crimes. That’s because 90% of them happen in “inner city” neighborhoods. KK lives in an affluent NYC neighborhood.

As for violent crime in Delray Beach… I was shocked to see the data. It’s hard to believe. But, I live in an affluent neighborhood. So, like KK, I couldn’t know that I live in a sh*thole too!

 Worth Quoting 

* “Things are beautiful if you love them.” – Jean Anouilh

* “The person who gets one shot needs everything to go right. The person who gets 1,000 shots is going to score at some point. Find a way to play the game that ensures you get a lot of shots.” – James Clear

* “The secret to having lasting personal relationships with friends and family is to assume that in the most fundamental and important ways they will not improve themselves.” – Michael Masterson

Bits and Pieces

What I Believe: Meta-Knowledge = Meta-Tribes

We develop beliefs based on our experiences. Our passive (reading and viewing) experiences as well as our active (physical) ones. Increasingly these days, the Metaverse has become a large part of our passive experiences.

If we become interested in, say, Paul McCartney or Modern Art or the history of serial killers, our social media landscape will tempt us with visual and verbal prompts. If we click on such prompts, we experience not just many more examples of what we are looking for, but examples that are more visceral and compelling.

We sometimes call such journeys going down rabbit holes. That metaphor feels harmless. And it can be harmless – and appropriate – when we are exploring some topics. But when we are traveling through the Metaverse of Ideas, it can become more complicated and profound. That’s because ideas are often harbingers of physical actions. Digital Nation States, such as Facebook and YouTube, understand this. Quite commonly, their algorithms are intended to cause action, whether it be commercial, social, or political.

To optimize and rationalize responsiveness, Digital Nation States divide us into tribes. And the algorithms for each tribe are uniquely structured to deepen our beliefs.

This is a prescription for danger, because the prompted actions can be extreme. We have seen it played out countless times in recent years on both sides of the political and social divides.

And because the algorithms are designed as they are, it is difficult to notice that we are being intellectually and emotionally manipulated. It feels as though we are learning more and understanding more. And so, our anger and our convictions become stronger, while our understanding may not.

In other words, there is actually no correlation between how strongly we feel about our ideas and the truthfulness of them. We are experiencing the world through separate Metaverses of fear. And the only way to keep Metaverse-inspired ideological tribal wars from continuing to flare up into real world violence is to remind ourselves, constantly, of what is happening.

How to Keep an Independent Mind

If you are tired of being recruited into ideological tribal wars, it’s not enough to want to think rationally. You have to manage the information you are consuming.

Here are five ways to do that:

1. Recognize that the news and views you are getting now are probably slanted. Even if they feel like the truth.
2. Recognize that the facts you are consuming, even if they are accurate, can be just one part of the full picture. Be aware that there may be – are likely to be – facts that support different conclusions.
3. Feed your mind with a digital diet of diverse ideological viewpoints. For social/political issues that are strongly bifurcated, take in about 50% from each side.
4. Choose high-quality over low-quality information. High-quality information seeks to present facts objectively and tell stories with nuance. Get your facts and opinions from intelligent, articulate people on both sides.
5. Make friends with smart people that think differently than you do. Find a way to have civil conversations with them.

Speaking of the Metaverse: Censorship in the Digital Nation of Amazon

I’ve pointed this out before: In the Metaverse, freedom of speech does not exist.

Amazon is and will almost certainly continue to be one of the largest Meta Nations. It has more than 300 million active customer accounts and gross revenues of $1.64 trillion.  Furthermore, it controls over 70% of the sales of new books for adults online.

But if you hope to buy or sell a book on Amazon, it has to be one that does not “violate” any of Amazon’s rules.

Ryan Anderson found that out when he published a book about the transgender movement called When Harry Became Sally. It sold reasonably well for three years. Then, suddenly, it disappeared from Amazon’s virtual shelves.

Anderson asked Amazon for an explanation, and was told that his book was in violation of their policies because it “framed LGBTQ and identity as a mental illness.”That’s not what Anderson did, however. He described gender dysphoria as a “deep discomfort that someone would feel as a result of a biological sex that doesn’t line up with their gender identity.” That’s pretty much the clinical definition. But not in the Meta Nation of Amazon.

What Makes a Big, Successful Marketing Idea?

Todd Brown, a colleague and friend, recently posted an explanation of an insight about marketing that I shared with him many years ago. It’s certainly not an original idea. I’m sure every successful marketer and salesperson has recognized it at some level. But many people in the biz don’t understand it, and this holds them back.

In this video, Todd presents it better than I could.

Colombia, specifically Medellín, is far and away International Living’s  #1 choice in South America. Here’s why:

* Perfect weather, requiring no heat or air conditioning…

* World-class health care…

* A rich cultural scene, with theater, orchestra, and exciting events…

* An affordable cost of living…

* Absolutely low property cost…

* Great investment potential, for both the capital-gains and the income investor

Readers Write… 

Re the Jan. 24 issue:

DP writes – “Good piece on the midterm elections! I think you nailed it. It’s all about fear since the Dems decided Trump was a danger to the Deep State. Fear sells better than hope. Still, I hope we can see America come back to sanity.”

Re the Jan. 7 issue:

AS writes – “Since you told me how many books you read every year, I’ve been reading a book a week. One book was 900 pages so it took me a week and a half. I’d like to say you motivated me but, really, it just made me feel guilty.”

Re the Jan. 2I issue:

SL writes – “Thanks for recommending The Hand of God. It’s now at the top of my To Watch list and I’m sure I’m going to enjoy it…. Pinker’s Enlightenment Now changed my world view. Glad you liked it as much as I did. He is a prime example of a public intellectual.”

Words to the Wise: Three That I Want to Use

* limerence – the state of being infatuated or obsessed with another person. Example: “But limerence, lovely as it feels, is a time-limited event – it lasts about five years for most couples.” (Alyson Schafer, Breaking the Good Mom Myth)

* velleity – a wish or inclination not strong enough to lead to action. Example: “Who would have imagined then… that the ancient Jewish hope, ‘Next year in Jerusalem’ – for so long more a velleity than a hope, the feeblest and most unanticipated of anticipations – would be realized in their lifetime.” (Howard Jacobson, Kalooki Nights)

* omnishambles – a situation that has been comprehensively mismanaged, characterized by a string of blunders and miscalculations. The word was coined in 2009 by the writers of the BBC political satire The Thick of It. Click here to watch the way they used it the first time.