“Be at war with your vices, at peace with your neighbors, and let every new year find you a better man.” – Benjamin Franklin

It’s customary for know-it-alls to issue predictions this time of year. I’ve done my part over the past 21 years of blog writing.

I took a gander at some of my predictions last night. What I discovered is something I wish I’d known at the outset. If you want to have the best possible record as a prophet, emulate the greatest and most famous prognosticator of all time: the legendary Nostradamus.

Nostradamus was a 16th century French doctor that practiced medicine during the Bubonic Plague. He was also an astrologer. But he’s best known for the predictions he made in his widely quoted Les Prophéties in 1555. And a cursory glance at Les Prophéties (which I did this morning) suggests that he followed four rules in foretelling the future:

1. Make the prediction with certitude.
2. The bigger and more shocking the better.
3. Keep the language vague.
4. And never, ever predict when it will happen.

Sure enough, when I look at my long-term, undated predictions, my record is perfect. None have come true yet. But none have not come true either.

During the early months of the COVID pandemic, I made several predictions about how the response to it would play out. For example, I said:

* The government, big tech, and the prestige media would continue to promote laws and regulations that restricted personal freedom in favor of social justice and public safety.

* In response to rising crime and higher taxes, there would be an exodus of businesses and wealthy people from New York, New Jersey, California, and Oregon to lower crime/ tax states such as Nevada, Texas, and Florida.

* The value of personal privacy would continue to erode as people became more and more comfortable signing waivers to apps – knowing little to nothing about what they were agreeing to.

* Political differences between Democrats and Republicans would become sharper and more acrimonious as civil courtesies among politicians continued to disappear.

I’d argue that I got those right. But I also got one wrong…

Eleven months prior to the presidential election, I speculated that the result would depend on whether the US voting public would be more frightened by the escalation of COVID or of violent crime. My prediction: By November, violent crime would be America’s number-one concern and, therefore, Trump would win a second term. But the mainstream media did an amazing job of scaring the shit out of otherwise rational people and Biden got the win.

So, what’s ahead of us this year?