Back from the sunny beaches of Rancho Santana on the Pacific Ocean to my house on the equally sunny beaches of the Atlantic Ocean in Delray Beach, I was only dimly aware that the Delta variant of the coronavirus was skyrocketing. You couldn’t tell from the airport or by looking at people on the streets or at Boheme Bistro, where we dined that first night. Unlike New York and California, Florida has maintained a policy of minimum mandates during the entire pandemic. We were in lockdown for some number of weeks when there was a legitimate fear that hospitals would be overwhelmed. That didn’t happen, and the lockdown was relaxed. Since virtually no businesses were shut down, Florida’s economy stayed strong these past 18 months and is now enjoying the benefit of a flood of people buying up houses and condos to move into or use as second homes.

Freedom is never free. There is always a cost. Sometimes it is paid in labor. Sometimes in risk. Sometimes in blood. I decided to check the data to see how my home state is doing compared to similarly large states that imposed (and still are imposing) severe sanctions.

Here are the scores so far:

Contracted COVID Cases (per 100,000) 

New York: 11,500

New Jersey: 12,000

California: 10,600

Florida: 14,300

Deaths (per 100,000) 

New York: 278

New Jersey: 300

California: 165

Florida: 190

What does that mean?

All three large-population states with the toughest lockdown requirements have done better than Florida, with about 30% fewer cases. But in terms of what really matters – deaths – New York and New Jersey did considerably worse than Florida with about 50% higher mortalities. California did somewhat better at 165/100,000 vs. 190/100,000 – about 16% less.

My prediction is that after all is said and done, including vaccinations, the difference in mortality between high-mandate and low-mandate states will be about the same. And if that turns out to be true, the only valid conclusion we will be able to draw is that mandates and lockdowns were not effective in reducing deaths. What will have been effective is simply distancing: Rural (less populated) states and countries will end up with fewer deaths per population.

You can check these data out yourself here.