The Good, the Bad, and the Uncertain

I’m not sure why I’m sending you this. What follows are notes I took about recent news events that caught my attention. Maybe, after you read them, you’ll understand why I sent them. In case you want to know more, there are links that follow each item. 

 

Good: “No, You Can’t Trespass to Indoctrinate My Workers” 

The Supreme Court struck down a regulation giving union organizers the right to enter private farms without permission in order to organize workers. The “regulation appropriates for the enjoyment of the third parties the owner’s right to exclude,” Chief Justice John Roberts wrote. He was joined by justices Clarence Thomas, Samuel Alito, Neil Gorsuch, Brett Kavanaugh, and Amy Coney Barrett.

Click here.

 

Bad: Hong Kong Daily Closed 

Hong Kong’s only outspoken pro-democracy newspaper, Apple Daily, published its last issue on Thursday, June 24. The 26-year-old paper was majority owned by Jimmy Lai, a wealthy critic of Beijing.

Click here.

 

Uncertain: Delta’s Force 

The Delta variant is the great threat in the US to our attempt to eliminate COVID-19, Anthony Fauci said on Tuesday, June 22. It’s spreading quickly in the UK and other European countries, and is expected to surge in the US, according to the CDC. British scientists are estimating that the variant is 40% to 80% more transmissible than the Alpha variant, which accounts for the fact that the caseload is up nearly 500%. The good news is that it is resulting in fewer hospitalizations and fatalities.

Click here and here.

 

Good: HR-1 Defeated 

An astonishingly anti-democratic, power-usurping Congressional bill, the first submitted to Congress by the Biden administration, failed to get the 60 votes needed to pass the Senate, even though all 50 Democrats voted for it. Among other idiocies, the bill made voter ID requirements illegal, gave voting rights to felons, and promoted ballot harvesting, which is custom-made for voter fraud.

If you’d like to know how crazy this bill was, Ted Cruz does a good job of explaining it here.

 

Bad: Google Nation Shrugs Off Challenge by Pipsqueak European Union 

The European Union opened an antitrust investigation against Google last week, trying to determine if they are making it impossible for rivals to buy ads on Google and Google-owned YouTube. Google is not sweating this. They are as rich as the richest European nations, they are growing faster, and they have no debt. Prediction: Google will end up paying a negligible fine and moving on with their nation-building empire.

Click here.

 

Uncertain: Big Blue Cities Recalling Refugees and Tourists 

In the Travel & Entertainment section of the WSJ on June 23, there was an article about how some of the larger, pro-BLM/defund-the-police Democratic cities are launching campaigns to draw tourists and fleeing residents back to enjoy their urban benefits. New York, Washington DC, Detroit, and Portland are busy promoting their parks, museums, and other amenities to raise post-shutdown revenues. We’ll see how that works.

Click here.

 

Good: Some Hope for Students’ Free Speech Rights 

The Supreme Court supported free speech for students last week in an 8-1 ruling that a Pennsylvania school district overstepped its authority by punishing a high school cheerleader who used vulgar language on Snapchat after she failed to make the cheerleading team. The ruling left the door open for schools to censor speech within school-run assemblies, publications, and communications. But they don’t have the right to regulate speech generally on social media.

Click here.

The Invasion of the Digital Dollar 

There is indeed something that large governments like about Bitcoin. It exists on a blockchain, which means that each and every financial transaction that is made (including minor purchases) is recorded and can be retrieved. Thus, being able to access this information would allow them to monitor every commercial action done by every citizen and end the last vestiges of financial privacy.

Think about that. Every transaction from the hamburger you ordered at McDonald’s… to the donation you gave your church… to the news channels and streaming services you subscribe to… to every toll booth you went through on your trip out west.

This is a dream world for big government. There would be no corporate or bank crime that couldn’t be detected, no theft that couldn’t be tracked, no commercial or financial transaction that couldn’t be audited and prosecuted. Nor would there be a dime’s worth of tax avoidance. The government would have 100% control not only of money supply, but of money flow and money location and, most importantly, money “management.” Governments would, in effect, be the mediators of our money. Like children on an allowance, every decision we made about saving, spending, investing, or even giving away our money would be subject to government monitoring and approval.

That’s what big government people like about Bitcoin. What they don’t like is that it is virtually impossible for anyone, including the government, to get access to any of this financial information, because access to the blockchain is not available without a secret key code that only the Bitcoin owner has.

But don’t be deceived. When the government wants to, it can and will get hold of those codes. Not with cyber technology, but with very rudimentary technology – guns, handcuffs, and jail. (My young, Bitcoin-owning, Libertarian friends tell me they would never surrender their key codes. I shake my head.)

The reason that Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies haven’t yet been made illegal is precisely because, for the moment at least, they pose no threat to the dollar. And yet, as digital currencies, they make us comfortable with currencies that can be meticulously monitored and controlled.

This is how I think the government will gradually make its move:

Step 1. Quietly encourage the use of digital currencies, particularly those introduced by Google, Amazon, Apple, and other big government allies.

Step 2. Introduce the Digital Dollar, with little or no fanfare to avoid scrutiny.

Step 3. Subordinate the Big Tech currencies to the Digital Dollar, also as discreetly as possible.

Step 4. Begin a national campaign (supported by Big Tech) against Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies as vehicles for crime.

Step 5. Outlaw cryptocurrencies. Offer free exchange for the Digital Dollar (or any of its subordinate, Big Tech equivalencies).

Step 6. Go after those that do not surrender their cryptocurrencies. Most – probably 80% – will capitulate when faced with the threat of prison. The other 20% will be in prison, unable to use their cryptos.

At that point, the Digital Dollar will take over, and the government (and Big Tech) will have full financial control of its citizens.

Does that seem crazy?

Maybe it is. But China is already up to Step 2.

Click here to read an interesting take on this (sent in by JM).

The Real “Border Problem” 

On Friday, more than six months after President Biden put her in charge of the “border problem,” Kamala Harris visited the US-Mexico border. (The White House announced her trip the day after Trump announced that he’d be going on June 30.)

When asked as recently as last month why she hadn’t yet been there, Harris mocked the question. “I haven’t been to Europe either,” she said, laughing that odd laugh of hers.

Earlier this month, however, she did fly down to several countries in Central America to talk about “the root cause” of the increase in undocumented immigration: the wealth and income gap between the US and those countries.

It is mindboggling to me that anyone would take that seriously. How is she going to fix the gap? By magically raising the per-capita income of Guatemala and El Salvador to US standards?

Meanwhile, Mexican and Central American cartels are making billions trafficking people and drugs to the US. Every day, thousands of men, women, and unaccompanied children are coming into the country. Some manage to sneak in and disappear. But most get caught or turn themselves in, knowing that the Biden administration’s policy of booking and releasing them (into the US) means, essentially, free entry.

Since January, there has been a surge of border crossings, both illegal crossings and immigrants seeking asylum. Well, actually, most of the asylum seekers are people that cross the border illegally and then turn themselves in to authorities on the other side, knowing that they will be booked and released, so long as they promise to return one day for a hearing.

At the current rate of 6,000 apprehensions a day, and including those that avoid detection, the total number coming into the US in 2021 could exceed 2 million.

There are consequences. One is a huge increase in illegal drugs (including methamphetamines and cocaine) entering the country.

Another is the human cost of trafficking humans…

So, what’s the deal? Why the open-border policy? Every other sovereign country in the world has strict border controls. Biden himself was an advocate for secure borders for most of his career. He may be a little foggy upstairs, but he’s not braindead. And neither are the people around him, the people that are making the domestic policy decisions.

I have two theories. The first is not my theory, but it’s fun to imagine:

Keeping the southern border open is part of a Democratic two-prong strategy to maintain control of both houses of Congress and the executive office forevermore. The first prong is to make Puerto Rico and Washington, DC, states and thus secure four more Democrat senators. The second prong is to boost the Democrat voting population by bringing in several million illegal immigrants, who, the Dems think, will vote Blue.

The second is more mundane:

In his bid for the presidency, Trump’s position on the border struck a chord that surprised everyone, including him and his campaign. It was such a strong issue that he/they felt compelled to make it one of the pivotal “achievements” of his first term in office. The Dems were forced to oppose it. Not because they believe in open borders, but because they were committed to opposing everything that Trump did. When it was discovered that arrested children were being kept separately from their parents, the public was outraged. And so, like it or not, the Biden administration felt compelled to dismantle everything Trump did to secure the border. This led to the current surge, which the Republicans are loudly criticizing. But the Democrats can’t do anything about it or it will look like some part of Trump’s policies may have been right. Instead, they have tried their best to ignore what’s happening down there because they don’t want it to become a pivotal issue again in 2022 or 2024.

 

I don’t know what is scarier: the Biden tax proposals themselves… or the obvious fact that this woman doesn’t seem to have the faintest idea how capital gains taxation works! (It is embarrassing to watch her pretend she understands Romney’s questions.)

A Fresh Look at Aristotle’s Poetics

One of the best courses I took in college was Classical Literary Criticism, in which we read, among other things, Aristotle’s Poetics.

You might think that a literary theory developed more than 2,000 years ago would need some updating (at least!). But I’ve found no better tool for understanding and appreciating stories of every kind, including fiction and film.

I have two short movie reviews for you today, but first…

I recently came across a very good precis of the Poetics that can help anyone interested in the dramatic arts get more out of work that is currently being produced.

Check it out here.

The 12th Man (2018)

Available on Prime Video

Directed by Harald Zwart

Starring Thomas Gullestad, Jonathan Rhys Meyers, and Mads Sjogard Pettersen

Set during the Nazi occupation of Norway during WWII, a team of 12 Norwegian soldiers, trained by the British, sail to the shores of Norway with plans to explode key Nazi facilities. They are captured just as they land. One is killed immediately. Ten are tortured and executed. But one – Jan Baalsrud – gets away. The story is about his escape, through brutally cold conditions, to Sweden.

 

What I liked about it:

* Someone said that there are only two kinds of motion pictures: the peep show and the chase. This is a literal – and well-done – example of the latter.

* The fact that The 12th Man is based on a true story added to the pleasure of watching it.

* It was a good reminder of the brutality of war.

 

What I didn’t especially like:

Baalsrud was on the verge of being frozen to death for the entire hour and 50 minutes. Rooting for him… it was emotionally exhausting.

 

Interesting Facts 

I didn’t realize that Sweden was neutral during WWII.

According to German documents, the Nazis believed that the resistance group had perished in a blast. There are no reports indicating that they knew to hunt for Baalsrud, who claimed that he killed two German soldiers in the fight.

 

Critical Reviews 

 * “In a familiar genre, The 12th Man preserves the element of surprise by understanding its terrain.” (New York Times)

* “[Baalsrud’s] extraordinary story has unfortunately been turned into a handsomely produced but laborious, drawn-out, and dramatically inert movie.” (The Guardian)

* “A war film that wears superior influences on its sleeve. On the flipside, it brings us the best reindeer-chase scene ever committed to film.” (Rory Marsh)

 

 

The Dig (2021)

Available on Netflix

Directed by Simon Stone

Starring Carey Mulligan and Ralph Fiennes

K vetoed this film several times. Last night, I got my way.

Based on The Dig, by John Preston, this is a true story about the discovery of the Sutton Hoo treasure, one of the most important archeological finds ever in England. The plot revolves around several of the people involved.

What was good about it: The history behind it. The photography. The direction. The music. Ralph Fiennes’ acting, and Carey Mulligan’s amazing face.

What was not so good about it: The plot was weak. The romance between two secondary characters, Peggy Piggott and Rory Lomax, was distracting and factually inaccurate.

 

Interesting Facts

The film received generally positive reviews from critics and received five nominations for the British Academy Film Awards.

 

Critical Reviews 

* “There’s a great film to be unearthed from Jon Preston’s 2007 novel, but this isn’t it.” (Paul M. Bradshaw)

* “Quintessentially English, full of charm and tenacity, Ralph Fiennes and Carey Mulligan put in star performances.” (Zehra Phelan)

This guy sent two innocent people to jail for 15 years.

In 2000, Richard “Rick” Jackson, then a Dallas County assistant district attorney, got convictions for two men on trial for murder: Dennis Allen and Stanley Mozee.

Both men claimed innocence, but both were sentenced to life in prison. They were eventually exonerated when it was proven that Jackson had withheld important exculpatory evidence, and were released.

Fifteen years for a crime they didn’t commit.

Click here for the full story.

My Beef with “Creatives” 

In my business – the idea-publishing industry – some workers are valued more than others. These are the so-called “Creatives”: writers, marketers, advertising copywriters, and sometimes publishers.

The reason they are valued more is that their work contributes more directly to revenue and profit growth. Thus they earn more – sometimes 10 times more – than an equally intelligent and hard-working person that happens to work as an accountant or inventory manager or customer service manager.

This relationship between rain-making and money-making is true of all businesses that operate in free markets. It’s the reason actors of questionable technical skill, such as Arnold Schwarzenegger and Will Smith, get paid tens of millions for every movie they make. And it’s the reason Tiger Woods and Floyd Mayweather were able to make hundreds of millions of dollars after their athletic skills were in decline. They bring the gate.

It makes perfect sense to me that this should be so. In any given profit-making business, some professions will contribute more to the bottom line than their peers. If you want the revenue pie to grow bigger, which allows the business to pay everyone more, including the “non-Creatives” you have to pay the rainmakers.

Nevertheless, I have a gripe about the rainmakers in my industry. I object to calling them Creatives.

In my experience, only two or three in 10 marketers, copywriters, salespeople, and publishers are creative. The rest are good at only one or maybe two ways of stirring up the rain.

A creative person, by definition, is someone that instinctively and incessantly innovates. Someone undeterred by obstacles. Someone that vaults over obstacles with new ideas.

That means someone with the emotional and intellectual flexibility to come up with and adjust to dozens of new and different ways to achieve any particular goal.

To merit the title of Creative, one has to be able to innovate easily, constantly, and brilliantly. When the business or marketing landscape changes, a Creative will see it as an exciting opportunity to quickly discard the old, proven practices and the ideas that were derived from them in favor of new ones that would have been considered idiotic just a few months or weeks earlier.

When I think of Creatives in my industry, I think of Jay Abraham, with whom I worked closely 30-odd years ago. What always astonished me about Jay was not his natural intelligence, which was considerable, but his ability in brainstorming sessions to come up with alternative ideas in rapid succession. If, as often happened, his client would object to his earlier suggestions, Jay rarely spent more than a minute arguing in favor of any particular marketing idea he had put forward. Whenever one of his ideas was objected to, for whatever reason, Jay would almost instantly come up with another idea. And if that wasn’t taken, he’d come up with a third. And on and on until his client was happy. That was Jay’s genius, in my view.

The idea-publishing industry has gone through several dramatic changes since the conveyance of ideas moved from printed paper and the post office to digital delivery on the Web. And with one of my clients, in particular, recent challenges have required fundamental changes in our approach to sales and marketing, from beginning to end.

To deal with this, my partners and I have been busy urging our rainmakers to start thinking out of the box. And I’m happy to report that some have responded to this quickly and even gratefully. But most are struggling, and some are downright resistant.

Those that are resisting are not stupid or belligerent. Nor are they blind to what is going on. The problem for them is that however smart and skillful they may be, they do not have the creative flexibility to succeed in this new environment.

The old tricks they mastered, the ones that worked so well in the last era, cannot work today. But since they aren’t accustomed to thinking creatively, they feel trapped. Rather than acquiring new tools, they insist on using the old ones that no longer work.

Tiger Woods was a world-class rainmaker. But he was not creative when it came to making his money. His trick was being the world’s greatest golfer and a seemingly nice person. But when his world changed, he had trouble finding a new way of earning back his fan base. His tendency was to stay under cover, and then to come out to play and keep his head down. Because of his enormous global popularity, he was still able to bring viewers to every tournament he played in. But it was a diminishing game, because he could not reinvent himself. After winning his last tournament, he retired. A smart ending to an amazing career.

Floyd Mayweather was a rainmaker too. He made tens of millions when he was at the top of his game. And he, too, had public image problems as well as personal financial problems that could have left him – like so many boxers before him – a once-great athlete struggling to pay his bills.

Instead, he reinvented himself by doubling down on his reputation for being financially irresponsible. He bought a strip club, promoted himself as Money Mayweather, and agreed to take on an exhibition boxing match with Conor McGregor, a top-notch MMA fighter. He made something like $50 million for slipping McGregor’s punches until he closed out the fight in the sixth round. It didn’t bother him that he was fighting a non-boxer, someone that was, in theory, beneath him. He not only embraced the change, he produced the fight. He made more money as the producer than he did as the star attraction.

And just last week, he did it again. With a social media personality that had no professional boxing experience but millions of followers, a percentage of which were willing to pay $50 a pop to watch the fight.

It’s great to be a rainmaker. It’s fantastic to develop a financially valued skill. But if you want to be in the game for the long haul – long after the world you entered has changed a half-dozen times – you have to be a Creative. And not just in name, but for real.

(I’ll talk about how to do that in a future essay.)

Crazy: Lori Lightfoot Says Racism Is a Public Health Crisis

On Monday, I told you how Chicago’s mayor, Lori Lightfoot, blames the city’s crumbling economy, high unemployment, and huge spike of violent crime on “systemic racism,” even though more than 90% of the city’s commandants and bureaucrats are Black.

ED, a reader, wrote in to challenge me: “I don’t believe she said that. Please cite your source.”

Before I could get to that, Mayor Lightfoot took her craziness to a new level. She called a press conference to announce that she was going to spend about $10 million in federal COVID relief on fighting Chicago’s greatest health threat. Yes, you guessed it: systemic racism.

“At almost every point in our city’s history, sadly, racism has taken a devastating toll on the health and well-being of our residents of color, and particularly those who are Black,” Lightfoot said, standing in front of an exhibit honoring Martin Luther King, Jr. “That’s why I am declaring racism as a public health crisis. Because we can no longer allow racism to rob our residents of the opportunity to live and lead full, healthy, and happy lives.”

The $9.6 million will go towards opening up six “Healthy Chicago Equity Zones” that will “create community-based stakeholder coalitions charged with dismantling historical inequities.”

What are the odds that some of her cronies are going to be in on that money?

Meanwhile, gangs in Chicago continue their reign of terror. Since Lightfoot’s press conference, there have been more than 100 shootings, including at least a dozen deaths –innocent men, women, and children – all Black.

White Privilege and Black Power in the Windy City

What’s Happening to Chicago? 

Inflation is up. Employment is down. Storefronts are shuttered. Offices are empty. The streets are strewn with debris. And homeless people – drug addicts and the mentally disturbed, primarily – wander about asking for handouts, fighting with one another and intimidating passers-by.

But what is most disturbing is the recent surge in violent crime. By the end of May, there were 1,156 recorded shootings and 252 homicides in Chicago – up 20% and 5% over the same time frame in 2020.

There is also a scary new trend among the young: armed car jackings for joy rides. 632 of them were reported in the first 5 months of this year.

These are alarming facts. The sort of facts that merit media attention. But I’ve seen next to nothing about it in the NYT or on CNN. It’s as if none of this violence matters. Why would that be?

Maybe this could be a factor: The great majority (maybe 90%) of this surge in violence is Black on Black crime.

It’s true. Since George Floyd’s murder, the riots that followed, and, most importantly, the call for defunding the police, Chicago has experienced a tidal wave of violence and murder in its Black neighborhoods. And Chicago isn’t alone. In Baltimore, Memphis, Atlanta, and New York City on the east coast, and in LA, Portland, and San Francisco on the west coast, a surge in violent crime this past year in Black neighborhoods has forced mayors to request emergency funds to put more police on the streets.

Like some others on the left, Chicago’s mayor, Lori Lightfoot, blames her city’s woes on White people. The argument, a layman’s version of Critical Race Theory, goes something like this:

Systemic racism makes it impossible for White people in power to treat Black people in non-racist ways. Even when Whites believe that they are acting in the best interests of Blacks, the actual effect of their decisions is to maintain a culture in America that keeps Black people from achieving success.

The solution is to have more African-Americans at the top of every area of life that matters – in business, in politics, in the media, in education, in entertainment, and in sports.

And the only way to do that is to abandon the inherently racist idea of equal opportunity and replace it with the Critical Race Theory concept of equity: a distribution of benefits according to race. If Blacks represent 13% of the US population, they should represent 14% of the CEOs, 14% of the engineers, 13% of the doctors, and so on.

Using the same reasoning, 13% of Ivy League students (and graduates) should be Black, 13% of law school graduates should be Black, and so on. Blacks should also represent 13% of America’s billionaires, and African-Americans as a group should have the same income level and net worth as Whites.

The most appealing aspect of this theory is that it is simple. Just legislate it. Pass a law that requires equal representation of Black people in every aspect of American life and these systemic problems will gradually disappear.

But here’s the problem with that…

Chicago is already such a city.

* The Mayor is Black.
* The Superintendent of Police is Black.
* The Cook County State’s Attorney is Black.
* The Chief Judge of Cook County Circuit Courts is Black.
* The Illinois Attorney General is Black.
* The Chicago Fire Department Commissioner is Black.
* The Cook County Board President is Black.
* The State Senate Majority Leader is Black.
* The Illinois Lieutenant Governor is Black.
* The Illinois Secretary of State is Black.
* The Clerk of the Circuit Court of Cook County is Black.
* The Cook County Clerk is Black.
* The Chicago Police Board President is Black.
* The Chicago Transit Authority President is Black.
* The CEO of Chicago Public Schools is Black.
* The Commissioner of the Department of Water Management is Black.
* 40% of the City Council belong to the Black Caucus.

No, getting rid of White people in power is not the answer to Chicago’s violence problem. Neither is defunding the police. And by the way, Chicago’s Black denizens already know that. Polls in Chicago and other large cities have shown time and again that the majority of African-Americans want more, not less, police protection.

So, what is the answer?

One possibility: Cities that have implemented what is sometimes called “the broken window” theory of policing saw a dramatic drop in violent crime.

The strategy consists of tougher policing and criminal prosecution for relatively minor crimes like breaking windows, public intoxication, petty larceny, and even vagrancy. By clamping down on the small crimes, the big crimes diminish considerably.

An extreme rendition of this strategy, frisking people that merely look suspicious, was correctly seen by civil rights advocates as unconstitutional harassment. In dismantling such policies, many cities took their agenda farther, instituting an assortment of catch-and-release protocols (such as the suspension of bail) that sent a signal to criminals that they were now in a prosecution-free zone.

Meanwhile, wealthy citizens are fleeing their cities in droves, moving to the suburbs or even to other states where they can work remotely and in peace. As a result, the tax bases of those cities are diminishing drastically… which will lead to the higher taxation of middle-income workers… which will lead to more capital flight.

You won’t hear much about this in the major media because it negates the BLM and Antifa narratives they have been supporting. But the governments of those cities will be very much aware of their diminishing tax base, and they’ll be forced to bring back efforts to establish some level of law and order.

As mentioned above, some are already doing that. The question is: Is it too late?