3 Surprising Facts About the Border Crisis 

* US Customs and Border Protection agents apprehended 172,000 illegal aliens along the border in March, the largest surge ever. (National Border Patrol Council)

* Of those, 19,798 were unaccompanied minors. (Mostly teenagers.) That is the largest number ever recorded.

* The average cost to care for each child in a temporary facility is $290 per day. That rises to $775 for children in temporary facilities, according to HHS officials. The total cost per week now: $60 million.

 

3 Scary Facts About the US Economy 

* In March, US debt passed the $28 trillion mark, an increase of $4.7 trillion over 13 months. (The Washington Post)

* The US economy (measured by GDP) is growing again since some of the shutdown measures were relaxed and/or removed. Still, GDP growth rates are about half what they were in the 1970s and 1980s.

* The global share of US-dollar-denominated exchange reserves (Treasury securities, US corporate bonds, US mortgage-backed securities, US Commercial Mortgage-Backed Securities, etc. held by foreign central banks) dropped to 59% in the fourth quarter, according to IMF’s COFER data released at the end of March. This matched the 25-year low of 1995.

 

 6 Random but Revealing Facts 

* 2020 marked the largest year-to-year increase in murders in the history of the country.

In Minneapolis alone, the murder rate doubled.

* The cannabis industry created 77,000 new jobs in 2020, and sales hit $18.3 billion.

* There are more trees on Earth than there are stars in the Milky Way. Every year, we lose 18 million acres of forest – an area the size of Panama. Since trees are a major carbon sink, deforestation also accounts for 15% of total annual greenhouse gas emissions.

* The US population grew by only 7.4% over the past decade, the smallest increase since the 1930s. The biggest cause of the population slowdown is the declining birthrate. (US Census Bureau)

* Nearly three-quarters of Americans agree that voters should show photo ID before being allowed to vote, according to an AP poll.

* “Beethoven became more original and brilliant as a composer in inverse proportion to his ability to hear his own – and others’ – music. But maybe it isn’t so surprising. As his hearing deteriorated, he was less influenced by the prevailing compositional fashions, and more by the musical structures forming inside his own head. His early work is pleasantly reminiscent of his early instructor, the hugely popular Josef Haydn. Beethoven’s later work became so original that he was, and is, regarded as the father of music’s romantic period. … Deafness freed Beethoven as a composer because he no longer had society’s soundtrack in his ears.” (Tune Out to Tune In)

 

5 Passing Thoughts I’m Chewing On 

* Somebody who says lots of wise things recently wrote: “It’s almost always better to learn from peers who are 2 years ahead of you than mentors who are 20 years ahead of you. Life evolves and most insights get outdated.” I say: Advice from those that are 2 years ahead of you will be useful in moving your business forward in the moment, but if you want to be in business in 20 years, listen to the old guys too.

* When you build the business around your own talents, its growth potential is limited to who and what you are.

* Entertainment is the surest way to weaken the human mind and diminish the human soul.

* Politics is based on power. Capitalism is based on wealth. The way you rise in politics is by acquiring more power. The way you rise as an entrepreneur is to acquire more wealth. The difference between the two is the nature of the currency.

* Next to Shakespeare, Vladimir Nabokov may be the greatest writer of tragedy since the Greeks. He is that very rare writer who is a master of the five Aristotelian elements of tragedy (which are still applicable to modern tragedies of all kinds, including novels). Nabokov is a master when it comes to plot, which, Aristotle correctly pointed out, is the most important of the five elements. But he is also a master of characterization, of diction (verbal expression), of thought, of song, and of spectacle.

 

 7 Statements I Want to Quote 

* “Joy is not in things. It is in us.” – Charles Wagner

* “I don’t want to get to the end of my life and find that I lived just the length of it. I want to have lived the width of it as well.” – Diane Ackerman

* “He who has peace of mind disturbs neither himself nor another.” – Epicurus

* “The lowest form of popular culture – lack of information, misinformation, disinformation, and a contempt for the truth or the reality of most people’s lives – has overrun real journalism. Today, ordinary Americans are being stuffed with garbage.” – Carl Bernstein

* “At any given moment, public opinion is a chaos of superstition, misinformation, and prejudice.” – Gore Vidal

* “Coming back to where you started is not the same thing as never leaving.” – Sir Terry Pratchett

* “In order to enjoy life, we should not enjoy it too much.” – Vladimir Nabokov

 

 9 Worthy Words I’m Going to Work Into Conversations

* exegesis: I heard or read this word at least 100 times during my graduate school years. I always thought it sounded impressive. I knew, from context, it was something that scholars did. But what exactly that was, I never took the time to find out. I came across it recently again and looked it up. It turns out it’s an academic synonym for “explanation.” Example: “If you think biblical exegesis is difficult, try explaining the US Tax Code.”

* heuristic: Another word I remember from graduate school but never used. It means “enabling one to learn something for himself.” It’s from the Greek word heuriskein for “find.” Example: “The pottery professor’s heuristic technique helped students discover their own sculpting style.”

* forfend: Forfend, a word that was first used in the 14th century, is still used, though nowadays it bears an antiquated patina. It means to forbid, to ward off or to prevent. Example: “All too often, the selfie is looked down upon with condescension, viewed as the narcissist’s calling card, treated with scorn and disdain. But why? Heaven forfend we show evidence of loving ourselves.” (Rachel Thompson)

* digerati: This word is de rigueur in conversation today. It refers to people that work with or teach information technology. Example: “Betty had complete faith that if she couldn’t fix her computer, the company’s digerati could.” Interesting… I could find no singular form of this word in any of the dictionaries I looked at. I suggest digeratum.

* holus-bolus: Here’s a fun word for you. Holus-bolus means all at once, as in “The guests arrived holus-bolus.” The derivation is uncertain, but it might have come from the Greek hólos bôlos (“clump of earth”).

* leitmotif: Another academic term. It means theme, as in “The futility of action was a leitmotif the author returned to over and over again.”

* inosculate: To join together in an intricate way. Example: “The toymakers shaped the product so that the pieces would inosculate while stored.”

* trenchant: Sharp; intense; forceful. Trenchant is often used to describe commentary or criticism. If you have a trenchant delivery, you’re known for your biting wit. You’ll be in good company with the likes of Oscar Wilde, Joan Rivers, and Jon Stewart. Example: “The professor’s trenchant critique discouraged her so much she considered dropping the class.”

* sprezzatura: Nonchalance; being (or feigning being) in a calm or relaxed state; studied carelessness, especially in the arts. Example: “At first glance, the mural seems unfinished, but it’s actually a lovely example of sprezzatura.”

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After reading my comments about this year’s Oscar winners, my friend A.S. wrote to say:

Your blog today motivated me to give you my opinion of the movies this year.

I am so sick of movies that make me want to take my own life. Nomadland! Everything you said was true except it was boring. You wait and wait for something to happen, but it doesn’t.

Black Messiah was terrific, unbelievable! I agree that both supporting actors, which I thought were lead roles, were superb. The happenings in the movie were current events to us. We had sideline views of it all. Mayor Daley, Chicago, Mayor Rizzo, Philadelphia, were fascists that were viewed by many as good leaders at the time, the norm. What a country, huh?

I don’t know if you saw Promising Young Woman. I thought it was as good as the winner, Nomadland, but more entertaining. However, I thought the best movie of the year was Better Days. It was nominated for best foreign film but didn’t win. The maker of Another Round, the winner, lost his daughter just before filming. She was supposed to have a part in the movie. The Academy had to know about it and surely there was a sympathy vote.

I’m just sayin’…

I agree with A.S. on all counts.

And yes, I saw Promising Young Woman and Better Days.

I didn’t like the premise of Promising Young Woman… a revenge film for the MeToo movement. (Of course, we’ve had plenty of revenge films for white males… Charles Bronson and Michael Douglas come to mind…) I thought it was entertaining but not a good movie in the sense that it changed me in any way.

Better Days, though, was very good…

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Better Days (2019)

Directed by Derek Kwok-Cheung Tsang

Starring Zhou Dongyu and Jackson Yee

K and I watched Better Days. It was one of the foreign movies on her list of Oscar nominations. From the get-go, I knew I would like it. The photography, the sound effects, the music were very smart.

Based on a popular young adult novel (In His Youth, In Her Beauty by Jiu Yuexi), Better Days takes place in a Hong Kong high school. The time is just before college entrance exams. 10 million students will be taking it.

That is in itself sufficient tension for a good story. But the protagonist, a 16-year-old in the equivalent of her senior year, is thrown into a world of vicious bullying and then is saved, sort of, by an encounter with a more sinister world of violence when she stumbles into a chance meeting with a gang member.

This is part Romeo and Juliet, part Bonnie and Clyde, part My Bodyguard. It’s also a social critique – not just of bullying, but also the pressures of the Chinese academic system.

If you want to get a feel for the difference between China and the US, both in terms of the experience of being a student and what it’s like to be part of a centralized government, this will give you a good idea.

It’s a long movie at 2 hours and 15 minutes, but it is one of the best of all the Oscar nominees I saw. Right up there with Judas and the Black Messiah.

Due to the immense popularity of its stars, Jackson Yee and Zhou Dongyu, it was one of the most highly anticipated Chinese films of 2019. (Yee has been in the spotlight in China and Japan since his debut at age 13 as the youngest member of the idol group TFBoys. Idol groups are made up of multitalented singers, dancers, and models. Their fame is generally manufactured and based on their attractiveness and social media/fan influence.)

It became a box office and pop cultural phenomenon in China, and received almost universal praise. But it was not popular with the Chinese government, which only very reluctantly allowed the film to be screened because of the sensitivity of its subject. It was pulled without explanation from the Berlin Film Festival days before it was to be shown. It failed to come out as scheduled in June in Chinese cinemas, before it was finally rolled out on Oct 25.

You can watch the trailer here.

 

Critical Reviews

* “Though not very subtle in presenting its thesis, the story is generally suspenseful and well-told by young HK actor and director Tsang.” (Hollywood Reporter)

* “Three years ago, Tsang made Soul Mate, an enchanting tale about female friendship that offered an engrossing look at modern, urban China. Yet that film isn’t quite adequate preparation for the emotional wallop of Better Days.” (Austin Chronicle)

* “Perceptive and gripping drama from China about pressure and bullying in schools, and one of the best films of 2019.” (Ready Steady Cut)

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Interviewing Matisse, or The Woman Who Died Standing Up

By Lily Tuck

148 pages

Published in 2006 by Harper Perennial

I decided to read Interviewing Matisse because it was a thin book, just 148 pages, and because George Plimpton, who knows a thing or two about fiction, called it a “tour de force.”

The author had an interesting background. She was born in Paris, earned a degree at Radcliffe and at the Sorbonne, and has lived in Switzerland, Thailand, and (during her childhood) Uruguay and Peru. That, and the title, promised some geographic nostalgia and thought-provoking literary references, which Tuck supplied.

What I was not prepared for was the way it was written. Basically, it’s a single, fractured, conversation by Lily, in the first person, and Molly, talking about their good old pal Inez, who has apparently turned up dead in her apartment, standing in her underwear and galoshes, as if she were welcoming the delivery boy who discovered her.

It’s part murder mystery and part social satire. It’s funny, but smiling funny. No guffaws. It does present a vivid picture of how out-of-touch and airheaded people of a certain privileged social class can be.

It’s not a tour de force, but at 148 pages, it’s worth a weekend afternoon.

 

Critical Reviews 

“Most impressive…. Sharp, funny and strangely affecting…. Highly original…. Wonderful satire.” (Michiko Kakutani in The New York Times )

“Sophisticated and funny…. Tuck gives us… with the skill and technique of an unblinking juggler, a heart-stopping struggle.” (Washington Post Book World )

“What great fun this novel is!… A lovely and engaging tour de force. Hooray for Lily Tuck!” (George Plimpton)

 

About Lily Tuck…

Lily Tuck’s novel The News from Paraguay won the 2004 National Book Award for Fiction. Her novel Siam was nominated for the 2000 PEN/Faulkner Award for Fiction. Her short stories have appeared in The New Yorker and in her collection, Limbo and Other Places I Have Lived.

“Living in other countries has given me a different perspective as a writer. It has heightened my sense of dislocation and rootlessness…. I think this feeling is reflected in my characters, most of them women whose lives are changed by either a physical displacement or a loss of some kind.” – Lily Tuck

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“We see our customers as invited guests to a party, and we are the hosts. It’s our job every day to make every important aspect of the customer experience a little better.” – Jeff Bezos

 

Customer Service Made Easy… and Profitable

There are two types of sales in business. In my industry, we call them front-end sales and back-end sales.

A front-end sale is the acquisition of a new customer. A back-end sale is any subsequent sale to that existing customer.

Front-end sales are almost always more expensive and more difficult than back-end sales. You are selling a product to someone that hasn’t bought from you before, may not have much trust in you, and – to make matters worse – you may not know who he is and where to find him.

Front-end marketing, therefore, is all about research, experimentation, and testing. And each of these can be very costly. That’s why I have said that the first responsibility of the Stage One entrepreneur is discovering the optimum selling strategy (OSS) for his/her business.

Because of the enormous costs of front-end marketing, most new customers will come to you at or below your allowable acquisition cost (the maximum dollar figure you have, through testing, determined you can spend to bring in a new customer).

What that means is that, for most businesses, you are not going to be making profits on your front-end sales. (If you are making profits, it means that you are probably not spending enough money on front-end sales.)

Profits, therefore, come from back-end sales – i.e., selling additional products/services to your recently acquired and existing customers.

How do you do that?

There are many ways to answer that question, but for our purposes here I’m going to answer it this way: Back-end sales depend on the customer’s experience of his initial purchase and how he’s been treated since then.

In other words, back-end sales depend on customer service – how you treat the customers you create.

Great customer service has three components:

  1. Knowing what your customers want – i.e., what they really want.
  2. Figuring out how to give them an endless supply of what they want.
  3. Learning how to start a conversation with them and keep it going.

Let me show you what I mean.

I was walking down a fashionable street in Bucktown in Chicago when I saw a large poster in a shop window that shouted, “New! Children’s Yoga – Sign Up Here!”

I looked up at the store’s marquee, expecting it to be a yoga studio. Instead, it was a children’s clothing store. “That’s smart,” I thought, “very smart.”

 

Knowing What Your Customers Really Want 

Indeed, if the woman who owns this store knows what I think she knows, she will have a very successful, growing business. What I think she has figured out is the first component of great customer service: knowing what your customers really want. In this case, she knows that her customers – young women with children, for the most part – want to give their children a rich and productive growing-up experience.

She hasn’t settled for the most obvious and superficial conclusion: “The people who come into my children’s clothing store want clothes for their children.” She knows that if clothing their offspring were their main goal, there are other stores – discount outlets and department stores – where they could get a wider selection at better prices.

She has recognized, in renting space on a fashionable street and stocking her store with expensive, hard-to-come-by clothing, that she is going to be selling to a certain type of young mother – an affluent, educated, and upwardly mobile woman who sees the success of her children as a direct reflection of her. Perhaps because this store owner is such a mother herself, she understands that her customers are interested in much more than clothing.

What her customers really want is to do everything possible to give their children the best of everything. And for these mothers – being young and affluent and upwardly mobile – that means indulging them in all the latest trends in quality living.

One of these trends is surely yoga. Yoga is practically de rigueur among wealthy 20- and 30-something mommies these days. If it is good for the mommies, why wouldn’t it be good for their children too?

I don’t know how this clothing store merchant managed to offer kiddie yoga classes, but it’s likely that she made a deal with a local yoga teacher who agreed to provide free or low-cost lessons in hopes of securing other, more lucrative business from the store’s customers later on. But however she managed it, she is sending her customers an important signal: She understands who they are and what they really want.

I can imagine the positive response her yoga promotion must have created: new customers walking into the store, asking about the classes… goodwill generated by her existing customer base… and both new and old customers feeling that she really gets it… not to mention thousands of extra dollars from the sale of a line of little yoga outfits.

 

Figuring Out How to Give Them an Endless Supply of What They Want 

If the owner of this children’s clothing store really does understand what her customers really want, you can bet that the yoga classes are just a single step of a lifelong journey she (and they) will be embarking upon. Long before the success of the yoga line ebbs, she will have thought of a half-dozen other campaigns that might attract additional back-end sales.

She could, for example, test a line of expensive educational toys and invite someone to lecture on early childhood development. Or she might do something with a local music conservatory – perhaps arrange for free introductory piano lessons, and then back-end the lessons with a line of clothing appropriate for giving recitals.

As the children of her current customers grow up, so could her offerings. If her customer base is sufficiently large, her children’s clothing store could, for example, give birth to a teenage clothing store.

Likewise, she could create new product lines that are connected to her customers’ lifestyles – traveling outfits for the summer, skiing outfits for the winter holidays, and so on.

And by making strategic alliances with other local businesspeople who could profit on the back end, she could provide additional benefits for her customers – demonstrations, tastings, and the like – at no cost to her.

The key thing she will have to remember in developing her back-end products and services is that everything she does has to be consistent with the understanding she has of who her customers are and what they really want.

 

Learning How to Start a Conversation With Them and Keep It Going 

If you recognize your customers’ deeper desires and provide them with more and better products more frequently, you will double or triple your back-end sales and, thus, double or triple your company’s profitability.

And if you do one more thing – talk to your customers about what you are happy to do for them – your profits can skyrocket.

This is an aspect of customer service that too many entrepreneurs, even good entrepreneurs, neglect.

If our shop owner is as good as I hope she is, she is already collecting the names and addresses (or, better yet, email addresses) of all her customers and is sending them information on a regular basis. She is surely sending them announcements about special events and sales, but she should also be sending them advice that helps them achieve their deeper objectives.

She should be sending them a monthly newsletter that talks about all the great new parenting books and information products that are specifically geared toward affluent parents. She should be talking about what events are taking place in the store and what new ones are being planned, and including testimonials (which she should be collecting) from customers who have experienced her special events in the past.

The wonderful thing about the internet is that it makes this sort of communication easy and affordable. Instead of printing up a four-color monthly newsletter, she can email her customers informally any time she has something to say. If she reads something interesting in The New York Times, she can pass that along to them. If she is thinking about bringing in a tennis teacher to give introductory lessons, she can ask her customers if that’s something that would interest them.

With the software available these days, it would be easy for her to communicate with all of her customers on a first-name basis. Each of her communications can have the intimacy of a personal letter and, where appropriate, the urgency of a postcard. By establishing a pattern of communicating in this way, she can create a very profitable, long-term relationship with all of her customers.

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After the Shutdown Ends

With Biden and Harris in the White House and the Democrats fast on their way to controlling politics for the foreseeable future, the mainstream media has abandoned its narrative of fear and is pushing hope and prosperity instead. That, and Biden & Company’s willingness to spend trillions of dollars it doesn’t have, spells a new take on COVID-19: It’s time to party again.

The virus will continue to do its thing. This is as obvious today as it was 13 months ago, when I first started writing about it. The difference is that we will be treating it like the common flu. Except for the COVID Cards.

That’s what’s happening now. But what will the future look like? With the shutdowns on their way out, how much and how quickly will the economy recover?

A few of my colleagues are predicting a Financial Armageddon. These unpaid bills will have to be repaid, and it will not come from just the top 1%, as advertised. It will come mostly, as it always does, from the working and middle classes.

But I don’t think it’s going to happen this year. My guess is that we will see a strong stock market for at least the next few years as a result of the multitrillion-dollar government giveaway (checks that will eventually bounce). But the comeback will not be universal. Some business sectors, and even some industries as a whole, will never regain their former share of the country’s GDP. And some are likely to die completely.

 

THE CASUALTIES 

 

Movie Theaters 

In a recent poll by Deloitte, 35% of participants said they prefer seeing movies in theaters and probably would return when the restrictions lift. 52% said they were comfortable watching movies at home or on mobile devices and probably would not patronize theaters.

Prediction: Specialized, hyper-luxurious (and hyper-expensive) theaters will be tested, and might succeed if they can make the experience less about watching a movie and more about something else. But the big theater industry is doomed.

 

Shopping Malls 

Bloomberg reported a 60% drop (about $4 billion) in shopping mall values in 2020.

Prediction: Like movie theaters, there may be a small niche industry of specialized shopping malls in the future. But the large, multi-acre suburban and rural shopping malls of the past will be gone.

 

Large Bookstores 

Print book sales rose 8.2% in 2020 vs. 2019, according to NPD BookScan. But bookstore sales dropped 28.3%, according to preliminary estimates from the US Census Bureau.

Prediction: Large bookstores are going the way of the dinosaurs, but the extinction will take a decade or two to complete. The early casualties will be mainstream bookstores that are selling books and other products one can get more easily and sometimes more cheaply through Amazon. Smaller bookstores that offer comfortable seating, good coffee, and a soothing environment will be around for a while. Specialty bookstores – e.g., those that sell rare and limited-edition books – will survive.

 

In-person Adult Education 

Fall 2020 and Spring 2021 saw a 7% increase in enrollment at primarily online institutions, compared to a 5% increase in Spring 2020, according to EducationData. The online learning industry is projected to exceed $370 billion by 2026.

Prediction: Overall, online college, university, and professional education will continue to rise, even among Ivy League schools. This will happen gradually, as people discover that most traditional educational programs are costly and inefficient.

 

In-person Business Meetings 

Business meetings on Zoom are undeniably much more efficient than in-person meetings. They are more likely to begin with agendas, more likely to stick to those agendas, and highly likely to serve their purpose in half the time. And that’s to say nothing of the very significant savings in terms of time and money that travel used to account for.

Prediction: Many of my colleagues disagree with me on this, but they are wrong. We have seen the end of the in-person business meeting.

In-person Seminars, Conferences 

Multiple sources suggest that with smaller budgets, crowd anxiety, and available tech, a full return to the once $235 billion conference industry is unlikely.

Prediction: Information and promotional events – such as book tours, business seminars, and even some celebrity events – will lose their appeal as digital versions become more sophisticated and exciting.

 

Supermarkets, Grocery Stores 

According to Statistica Research, foot traffic fell dramatically during the pandemic. And between August 2019 and June 2020, the number of online grocery shoppers increased from 16 million to 45 million.

Prediction: The supermarket business won’t disappear entirely, but it will be radically transformed. In the next 5 years, expect to see many supermarkets being converted to Amazon distribution centers, with some allowance in some neighborhoods for personal shopping. But it will be considerably less than what exists today.

 

Big Box Stores 

Best Buy’s digital sales made up 43% of all its holiday sales in 2020, according to Bloomberg, a 25% increase over the previous year. Along with several other big box stores, they have announced that they will be converting some retail outlets to e-commerce fulfillment warehouses.

Prediction: Big box stores will do worse than supermarkets. This particular sector of the mega-market economy is in for a total wipeout.

 

Commercial Office Space 

An increasing number of accounting and law firms report that they will be investing in additional technology to make it possible for their employees to work remotely. (37% of accountants, for example, according to Accounting Today, are expected to work remotely in 2021.) Meanwhile, as working remotely increases, businesses are leasing less and less space. According to JLL Research, Q4 2020 saw a loss of 40 million square feet of occupancy.

Prediction: Professional office space use, which dropped by about 70% during the lockdown, will come back, but only to about 50% to 60% of its former size.

 

 

THE SURVIVORS 

There are many industries and industry sectors that will recover 100%. My guess is that they will be the businesses that sell, among other things, ambiance.

Here is my list:

* Restaurants and coffee shops

* Parks and beaches

* Resorts and cruise ships

* Sports stadiums

* Gyms

* Residential real estate (apartments, condos, single-family homes)

* Construction trades

 

THE SUPER-SURVIVORS 

There are some businesses that will not just come back 100%, but grow much larger because of the shutdown. Pfizer, Moderna, and Johnson & Johnson are obvious. But I’m betting that the biggest corporate beneficiaries will be those that service the digital economy, including business, education, news, and entertainment.

Here are five of them:

* Amazon may benefit the most, as tens of millions of Americans have habituated themselves to shopping digitally.

* Apple, not an obvious choice, has a fast track in the news and information sectors.

* Netflix, like Hulu and other streaming services, will soak up the business that won’t be returning to movie theaters.

* Zoom has become the go-to brand for business conference services, and has good potential servicing the consumer market as well.

* Google and Microsoft benefit from all of the above.

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How good are you at identifying common flowers? 

I’ve spent 5 years and a small fortune developing a botanical garden. That experience has taught me a good deal about trees and plants – so I foolishly thought, when I took this test, that I would do better than I did. I got only 4 right. How many can you identify?

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