I don’t know Andrey Dashkov, but I know the man he works for: Doug Casey. And when it comes to the larger view, I trust Doug. He’s not just a serious student of investing, he’s a brilliant thinker with a sound, philosophical approach to life.

Andrey, like me, has no idea about what 2021 will turn out to be in terms of the stock market. But he’s playing it on the conservative side. He cites three reasons:

* He begins by stating his concern over impending lockdowns, citing the three that have already taken place in the UK since the start of the year. He explains that the virus and lockdowns’ effects were made clear last year with a 31% blow to the S&P in March, and warns that the new, more contagious strain recently found in the US may force even more lockdowns around the world.

* His next concern is that of “higher inflation expectations.” He explains that on January 4, “the breakeven rate – an inflation gauge based on interest rates – climbed above 2% for the first time since 2018.” He adds that while moderate inflation is to be expected after an economic crisis (i.e., a global pandemic), it also “erodes purchasing power” and warns that “If inflation runs high in 2021, a lot of what you buy day-to-day will get more expensive.”

* Dashkov then points to the S&P’s volatility index (which he refers to as Wall Street’s “fear gauge”) on January 4, pointing out that “it was up 19% from where it was at the end of 2020.” Due to this volatility, he would “urge you to err on the safe side… before rushing into bargains or panic selling.” He also suggests adding some gold to your portfolio to have “a safe haven against volatile market moves, as well as government spending and future inflation.”

Remembering KH

Tough day yesterday. I want to the funeral of a friend, a young man with a wife and four children.

I met him 20 years ago on the mats. We were doing light contact fighting. He landed a light jab squarely on my forehead. I went right to the floor. I was fine, but he was worried. “I’m fine,” I told him. “What the hell did you hit me with? It felt like a sledge hammer.”

KH was in his early 20s at the time. He was a big, barrel-chested kid, with traps that stood like mountains on his back and arms as thick as timber. He was also an excellent grappler. I remember thinking about how helpless I would be in a real fight with him.

KH was one of several members of my jiu jitsu team that I recruited into my business. During the first year of their apprenticeship, I would meet them during lunch hour in an attempt to educate them on certain things that were lacking in their education. We would play educational games – using flash cards I made about American presidents, modern artists, and philosophers. But our favorite game was a store-bought one called Le Nez du Vin – a box of 40 little bottles that contained different aromas inherent in wine tasting. I smile when I think of it. Imagine four 200+ pound men sniffing little bottles and saying such things as, “It’s definitely a floral… not lavender… maybe hibiscus or acacia?”

KH had perhaps the best nose of the group. And so he was seldom the recipient of the hazing that went on afterwards. (To keep the game athletic, the rule was that the loser each day had to lean over the pool table outside my office and receive a kick in the ass from the other players.

KH married a beautiful woman that worked for that very business, had four children with her, and enjoyed a very successful career. Earlier this year, he visited me and told me he was in the market for a new job. I was happy to recommend him to a half-dozen colleagues, all of whom were eager to employ him. He was going to start with one of them next week.

This weekend, I sent him an email, asking when exactly he was going to start his new job and how he felt about it. I didn’t get a reply, which was odd. The next day, BW (another member of that original group) texted to tell me that KH was dead.

KH had many qualities besides a strong intelligence and a good nose for wine. He was thoughtful, reliable, extremely loyal, and he was funny. His humor ran towards pranking sometimes, which I didn’t appreciate when I was the victim. As I knelt beside his coffin and looked at him, I half expected him to spring to life. (“Ha! Mark! I got you!”)

I felt awkward at the wake – and until I started writing this, I wasn’t sure why. I think it was because I could see so much of the 40-year-old me in him. He had so much more to do in his life. And here was I, at 70, at his funeral.

What can be said about a death so young? It’s not fair. Life isn’t fair. Carpe diem.

Oh, boy. The Democrats have done it!

They’ve gained control of the executive office and both houses of Congress. This should be an interesting ride.

Will they re-regulate the economy, end fracking, and criminalize gender-specific pronouns? Will they pack the Supreme Court, end the filibuster, and mandate voting rights for criminals and illegal aliens?

Will they get us back into proxy wars?

Will the economy lift or falter or founder? Will unemployment rise? Will the stock market fall?

The only thing I can say with confidence is that our new president, his appointees, and our elected officials (from both sides of the aisle) are going to continue to spend money they don’t have and can’t possibly collect, even if they tax every working American 50% to 80% of their incomes, as some are hoping to do.

The national debt is about to soar. Commercial and consumer debt will follow. And not by billions, but by trillions.

When I look into my crystal ball I see lots of extremely expensive and astonishingly stupid experiments ahead of us – almost every one of which will fail.

But for those that have already planned for the worst, the next four years should be a high-speed cartoon movie of bureaucratic boondoggles, mad-cap appropriations, quixotic spending programs, and mind-boggling political and social initiatives that will keep us endlessly entertained.

Out with the old. In with the new!