For the past week or so, the press has been covering what it calls a dangerous new strain of COVID-19 (B.1.1.7 ). You’ve probably heard and/or read about it.

The increase in risk, the reports say, is 30% higher.

That’s misleading.

In terms of relative risk, it’s a fact. But the actual, absolute risk of the new virus is only a small fraction higher than the original. So small, it could be a rounding error.

Here’s how it works: With the original COVID-19, out of 1000 people aged 60 or older, about 10 might be at risk of death. But with the new B.1.1.7 variant, 13 or 14 out of 1000 who are 60 or older might die.

This is a common problem with published reports on the relative risks of any disease: The average reader is misled into thinking the difference is significant. And that misconception sells. It sells drugs. And medical procedures. And it sells papers.