You may be wondering why I’m wasting your time on full-grown men having a shoving contest in diapers. Like many, my first impression of this sport was something between astonishment and disgust. But as a student of Brazilian Jiu Jitsu for more than 20 years, I’ve developed an appreciation for grappling – especially the Japanese forms.

What you’ll see in the video is Takanoyama Shuntaro, a Czech (born Pavel Bojar), defeating Japanese opponents twice his size. What is less obviously amazing but is super-cool for anyone that understands grappling, is the extreme level of the techniques used by Takanoyama in achieving these victories. (The  techniques are called “kimarite,” and the Japan Sumo Association recognizes 82 types of them.)

The word Sumo means “to mutually rush at,” and the goal is to push your opponent to the floor or outside of the ring area (known as the dohyo).

Originating in Japan more than 2000 years ago, Sumo is heavily traditional but surprisingly inclusive. Participants come from all over the world, including the United States.

So now… meet Takanoyama Shuntaro.

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Conceptual Art?

Hey there. Happy Monday. I have some thoughts for you today about the way I approach investing in stocks.

But before we get to that, I want to show you something I came across in one of the online art newsletters I subscribe to. Take a look at this:

“In the small New York State town of Kinderhook,” the piece reads, “artist Nick Cave has found himself in a bit of controversy over his art installation: a mural of black vinyl letters standing 20 feet tall and 160 feet across reading ‘TRUTH BE TOLD.’”

Unsurprisingly, the mural, which covers the entire facade of one side of the museum building (and is visible from the street) has caused a stir. Citizens are asking:

Is it a work of art – a profound and moving mural meant to “provoke a dialog over the George Floyd murder and police racial injustice,” as the artist’s lawyer is arguing?

Or is it just a big, ugly political poster – in which case it would violate various town ordinances?

For me, it’s a sad reminder of one of many unfortunate developments in modern art: a small but effete tributary called Conceptual Art.

In Conceptual Art, the idea behind a piece is more important than the aesthetic result of the artwork itself. In this case, Cave’s idea about racial injustice – presumably that it shouldn’t be denied – is what matters.

So, if you think encapsulating that “idea” into TRUTH BE TOLD is brilliant, this installation is a brilliant work of art. If you think it’s a thoughtless cliché, it’s a failed work of art.

Or, if you feel that artists should stick to making things and leave the making of ideas to people who are good at thinking, you will eschew Conceptual Art altogether.

You decide. Now, on to…

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“Investing should be more like watching paint dry or watching grass grow. If you want excitement, take $800 and go to Las Vegas.”  – Paul Samuelson

 

My Simple System for Knowing When to Buy a Stock

A reader wrote:

“I’ve read your strategy for buying income-producing real estate. You determine whether the asking price is fair or not with a simple formula: 8 times gross rent. What I want to know is if you have such a simple formula for determining the value of a particular stock, both for making the initial purchase and for reinvesting the dividends.”

Good question!

Determining a “fair” price for a dividend stock is a bit more complicated than it is when you are valuing income-producing real estate.

For one thing, businesses are more complex and dynamic than real estate properties. And the market in which rental properties exist tends to be local, which means easier to understand. Plus, rental income itself tends to be relatively stable. Rents can move up or down, but it happens gradually over a period of years, not months or even days, which can happen with stocks.

Using the 8 x GR (8 times gross rent) calculation makes it easy for me to know when not to buy. The only really bad rental property I bought in the last 15 years was the one I got talked into paying something like 15 times gross rent for.

There isn’t a calculation nearly this simple and accurate for deciding when to buy stocks. But there are ways to value stocks that are favored by people that do stock analysis for a living.

Two of the simplest are the P/E ratio and the P/R ratio. The P/E ratio compares the price of a company’s stock to that company’s profits (or earnings). The P/R ratio compares the price of a company’s stock to that of the company’s revenues.

The logic behind both is the same: If the company’s current ratio is higher than its historical average, it is deemed expensive. If it’s lower than its average, it’s deemed to be  selling at a discount.

Take Coca-Cola, for example. Its current P/E ratio is 28. This is 5 points higher than its P/E for the last 5 years (23) and 8 points higher than similar companies such as PepsiCo and Mondelez International (20).

A great time to buy Coke was (I’m not bragging) when I bought it, in 2015. Back then, it had a P/E ratio of only 20, which was, as you can see, relatively cheap.

Dan Ferris, editor of Extreme Value and a colleague of mine, did a study of Coke’s fluctuating values about a dozen years ago. I don’t remember the details, but I remember his conclusion: Even with a world-dominating brand like Coke, it does make a difference when you buy it. You should look to buy at or below its long-term value, whatever valuation method you use.

I rely primarily on the P/E ratio to value the “priciness” of a stock because of its simplicity and relative reliability. But I always ask Dominick, my broker, to take a deeper dive into evaluations when he thinks it’s merited.

Like using the GRM method for valuing rental real estate, using the P/E ratio for stocks can make it difficult or even impossible to buy more stock in good companies for years and years.

When the market is generally overpriced, P/E ratios are generally overpriced. And this is especially so when your portfolio consists of large, market dominating companies. There are times when you have to wait months or even years before the price of one of these great stocks comes into a safe buying range.

During these times, the cash portion of your stock account will get larger. You may be tempted to buy stock even if the P/E is high – especially if there are reasons to believe that the stock market or one of your stocks is going to move up.

When this happens, I sometimes ask Dominick if he can find any similarly large and dominating company that I don’t own and whose stock is NOT overvalued from a P/E perspective. If he can, we talk about whether it makes sense to expand the portfolio to include this extra stock.

There have been a few times when I’ve invested the cash in my stock account on some other type of investment – real estate, private equity, or private debt. But generally I’m comfortable sitting with cash since, because of how I diversify my portfolio, that cash is never more than 5% or 6% of my net investible wealth.

I’m not suggesting that this way of valuing stocks makes sense for everyone or even anyone reading this essay. I’m answering a good question by explaining what I do and have been doing for many years. So far, it’s been working well for me.

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Today is book and movie review day. And I’m happy to be recommending one of my favorites – a classic in noir film and fiction: The Maltese Falcon.

But before we jump into that, I want to pass along a noir story of a different kind: a very brief outline of what’s happened to the global economy over the past 100+ years, courtesy of my colleague and partner, Bill Bonner.

As anyone who’s taken World Economics 101 knows, the Industrial Revolution spurred the greatest economic growth in the history of the world. Led by the US, much of Europe, Canada, and Japan experienced a steady explosion of growth in wealth, productivity, and consumption.

In 1979, China entered the game when then Chairman Deng Xiaoping declared that becoming rich is a “glorious” pursuit, and not just allowed but encouraged free markets in many sectors of the Chinese economy.

Ten years later, the Soviet Union followed, abandoning, as BB says, both Communism and its empire.

Then in 1993, the European Union was created – “a free-trade zone big enough to rival the United States.”

But in the last 10 to 15 years, BB points out, this trend seems to have reversed:

All over the world, people grow old… and want protection from life’s risks and challenges. Even in Europe, the Italians want protection… from the French.

“The Italians in Italy. The French in France,” say the Italians, protesting the sale of Parmigiano Reggiano to French investors.

“Brexit Now!” demand the English.”

To be continued…

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The Maltese Falcon

By Dashiell Hammett

224 pages

Published 1929 by Alfred A. Knopf, Inc.

I read this as a book club selection about a dozen years ago and returned to it this weekend because it is so damned good in the most important ways a book can be good.

The plot – The story line is engaging, suspenseful, emotionally compelling, and fast-paced.

The characterization – The characters are fully imagined, sharply defined, but also full of contrasting nuances.

The theme – The idea that insinuates itself throughout The Maltese Falcon is profound: It’s about deception and self-deception. Every important character and every relationship has elements of falseness. This theme is nicely represented by the various motifs of the story: cosmetics, costume changes, and the Maltese Falcon itself, which is a fake.

The prose – The writing is superb. Taut, clean, and yet beautifully descriptive. Three quick examples:

* “Her eyes were cobalt-blue prayers.”

* “Beginning day had reduced night to a thin smokiness when Spade sat up.”

* “His eyes burned yellowy.”

Interesting Fact: Dashiell Hammett is largely credited with the image of the hard-boiled, noir detective we’re familiar with, as well as bringing literary – and professional – credentials to the detective genre. Under his first name, Samuel – a name that he would ultimately use for his most famous character – he worked with the Pinkerton Detective Agency from 1915 to 1922. The Maltese Falcon is the only full-length Sam Spade novel, but Spade also appears in four lesser-known short stories.

 From The Times Literary Supplement (London): The Maltese Falcon is not only probably the best detective story we have ever read, it is an exceedingly well written novel.”

From The New York Times: “Hammett’s prose [is] clean and entirely unique. His characters [are] as sharply and economically defined as any in American fiction.”

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The Maltese Falcon (1941)

Directed by John Huston

Starring Humphrey Bogart, Mary Astor, and Peter Lorre

Produced 12 years after the book, The Maltese Falcon, directed by the great John Huston and starring the equally great Humphrey Bogart, does not disappoint. It was nominated for three Academy Awards and is considered by many critics to be one of the 100 best films of all time.

It begins, as so many film noirs do, in a private detective’s office. A beautiful woman enters. She has a problem. She wants Sam Spade, the protagonist, to help her. He agrees, reluctantly. And things get complicated after that.

There are many things to like about this movie. Like the book, it gets an A or A+ in all the major elements of drama: plot, characterization, dialog, and theme. In addition, Arthur Edeson, the director of photography, does a magnificent job of bringing the theme of doubt and duplicity to life with his use of soft lenses, low-key lighting, and odd camera angles.

The Maltese Falcon  was produced with a budget of $375,000, and grossed $1.8 million at the box office.

Interesting Fact: In the film, Sidney Greenstreet’s character, Kasper Gutman, is referred to as “Fat Man” – and this inspired the code name for one of the  bombs that ended World War II. “Fat Man” was dropped on Nagasaki on August 9, 1945. It destroyed 3 square miles of the city and caused approximately 140,000 deaths.

 From Variety Magazine (September 1941): “One of the best examples of actionful and suspenseful melodramatic story telling in cinematic form.”

From Rotten Tomatoes: “Suspenseful, labyrinthine, and brilliantly cast, The Maltese Falcon is one of the most influential noirs – as well as a showcase for Humphrey Bogart at his finest.”

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On November 18, I talked about moments that I love. One of them is when my boys call me for advice. AF, one of my brilliant nieces, must have read that, because a few days later she called to “ask for my advice.”

AF heads up a group of advertising copywriters for a publishing business in France. She said she felt that her team was sputtering out in terms of coming up with creative new ideas.

I gave her half a dozen suggestions. I can remember two of them…

Drawing from the same wells: You would think that creative people would always be looking for new ideas by constantly searching new and different sources. But oftentimes that’s not the case. Like the rest of us, creative people like to be in a zone of comfort. And that means reading the same half-dozen periodicals, consulting the same online “experts,” and expecting to find new insights by googling for them. That may have worked in the early 2000s, but it don’t cut it anymore. They must find new sources immediately. And they must start reading books rather than internet essays. Books are written by actual experts and will tend to have much deeper insights and much more useful facts and figures.

Expecting too little of themselves: The comfort zone for creatives is not just about researching ideas. It’s also about writing them down. As writers, we find a handful of rhetorical styles and structures we feel comfortable using. And so, we tend to use them. We also fall into a certain level of productivity that feels comfortable. But when it comes to creativity, comfort is a bad thing.

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3 Facts, 3 Numbers, 3 Thoughts 

 

THE FACTS 

* To look up at stars in the night sky is to look back in time. Space is incredibly vast and stars are very far away – which means that it takes a long time for their light to reach us. It’s very likely that many of the stars you’re looking at burned out millions of years ago. If you were to look at Earth from the nearest planetary system (Alpha Centauri), which sits just over 4 light years away, you would be watching the last election and mourning the death of the Starman himself, David Bowie.

* The oil drained from a car during the average oil change – a little over a gallon – is enough to pollute a million gallons of drinking water.

* If dogs used iPhones, they’d unlock them with their noses. Every dog has a unique nose print, just as every person has unique fingerprints. The Canadian Kennel Club has kept a dog nose print database since 1938. And Megvii, a Chinese technology company, recently developed a digital dog nose print identification system that could help find lost dogs (and finally put an end to all those unsolved canine-led bank robberies).

 

THE NUMBERS 

* 51 million – the number of dollars that Netflix offered to buy Blockbuster in 2000. In 2010, Blockbuster filed for bankruptcy. In 2020, Netflix was worth $196 billion.

* 55 million – the number of dollars that lesser-known Apple co-founder Ronald Wayne’s share would be worth today if he hadn’t sold his 10% stake in the company for $800 two weeks after its founding in 1976.

*183 million – the record-setting number of albums by the Beatles that have been sold in the US alone. Runners-up are Garth Brooks with 156 million, followed closely by Elvis Presley with 146.5 million. Before being signed by EMI in 1962, the Beatles had been turned down by at least 4 recording companies, including Decca. “Guitar groups are on the way out, Mr. Epstein,” the Decca exec famously told the Beatles’ manager.

 

THE THOUGHTS 

* “When you have a hole in your soul, you will let others fill it with whatever extra baggage they want to get rid of.” – Michael Masterson

* “If you live for having it all, what you have is never enough.” – Vicki Robin

* “What consumerism really is, at its worst, is getting people to buy things that don’t actually improve their lives.” – Jeff Bezos

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Glad to be back home in Florida. On the way back from the airport I stopped at Paradise Palms & Sculpture Gardens (or the Swamp House, as K once dubbed it) to see how things were doing. I was happy to see that everything was fine.

Here’s shot of the Eden garden, which is filled with about a dozen species of fruit trees, including star fruit, avocado, lychee, jackfruit, lime, and orange. At the center is Frank Varga’s.

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“Maybe all one can do is hope to end up with the right regrets.” – Arthur Miller

 

20 Things You Don’t Know About Me

(That I May Regret Telling You) 

I’m not going to tell you all 20 today. I don’t have time and you don’t either. I’ll talk about three of them, and – if this doesn’t turn out to be a huge mistake – I’ll l send a few more in the upcoming weeks.

  1. Transgender Me 

I played a transvestite prostitute in a Herschel Gordon Lewis movie. Yes, that’s me looking like Phyllis Diller on steroids. When I saw myself on film, I was shocked and dismayed. For some reason, I’d always imagined I would make a better looking woman. But Herschel liked the look. Of course, he is the Godfather of Gore and the legendary auteur behind some of the most famously bad movies of the 1970s.

I knew Herschel as a copywriter during the 1990s. He did some work for me. He was a competent, experienced professional. Easy to work with. That’s all I knew about him until my neighbor, Roger, who was a film critic, was telling me about this guy he knew, Herschel Gordon Lewis, a famous filmmaker of the 1970s. I said, “That’s funny. We have a well-known copywriter in our industry with the same name!”

When I realized it was the same guy – and that not only did he have these two very different careers, he was also a respected journalist, a competent piano player, and generally erudite – I decided to make a documentary about him. He agreed, but only if I would produce another movie he’d had in the back of his head for many years. It was called “The Uh Oh!” He wrote and directed it. I co-produced and made this cameo appearance. The movie went on to win many horror film festival awards. Nothing was said about my performance.

 

     2. Repeat Offender 

I’ve been arrested at least a half-dozen times. The first time I can remember was in 1969.

RR (a high school friend) and I had set off for Woodstock in a car that a guy that worked for RR’s dad had lent us. But then we decided – I can’t remember why – that Woodstock wasn’t going to be all that much fun, so we turned west and set off for California. We had a tent, some camping equipment, and some “mood enhancers” that RR had brought to enhance our experience, and we had many what-seemed-to-be brilliant conversations along the way.

Many of those conversations were about war, government, and politics. (Vietnam was in full throttle then.) And some were more esoteric – such as the electro-physiological explanation we came up with for déjà vu. (A nanosecond short circuit in the brain’s short-term memory wiring.)

We were at a rest stop in Texas when a cop car pulled up behind us. At the time, I knew that being in possession of pot in Texas could get you a life sentence, so I was gearing up to confess and throw myself on their mercy. In the rear-view mirror, I could see that one of the cops was on his walkie-talkie. Then he put it down, came over to our car, gestured for RR to roll down his window… and apologized. “Sorry,” he said. “You guys matched the description of two armed robbers we were looking for.”

He got back in his car and they sped off.

We drove very carefully out of Texas, scrupulously observing the speed limit, and finally reached California. Exhausted, we decided to pull off the highway to take a nap. I scrunched down in my seat, put my feet out the window, and passed out. Next thing I knew, a highway patrolman was tugging on my shoes. He asked RR for his license and registration. RR handed them over.

“This registration is expired,” said the patrolman.

“I didn’t know,” said RR.

“In fact,” said the patrolman, “it expired 3 years ago.”

He paused. “Where did you get this car?”

I looked at RR. He shrugged his shoulders.

The patrolman asked us to step out of the car, and he started rummaging through it. He found the pot in RR’s bag.

He escorted us to the nearest police station, where we were locked up in a holding cell. We were charged with grand theft auto and possession. Our bail was set at $5000. RR’s father bailed him out the next morning. And although my parents could have scraped up the money to cover my bail, they decided a bit of time in a jail cell would edify me.

I stayed there a week. By that time, the grand theft charge had been dropped. The judge fined RR $600 for possession, and fined me $250 ($50 off for each day I had spent in jail).

I could tell you a few grim stories about what I witnessed and experienced that week, but I won’t do that today. What I will say is that – for me – the worst thing about being in jail was not the tight quarters, hard bed, bad food, threats, intimidation, and occasional brutality, but the fact that I could not just get up and walk out the door. You will never know the amazing value of freedom until you’ve been locked up in jail.

 

  1. Manly Mountain Climber 

I climbed Mount Kilimanjaro.

For several years, my friend and client Dr. Al Sears had been encouraging me to climb a mountain with him. He was very much into mountaineering at the time, and had been making his way through a series of tall mountains out west.

I had no interest in climbing and was too busy anyway. But I felt guilty saying no over and over again. And so, when he invited me to climb Mt. Kilimanjaro in February of 2010, I agreed, thinking that something would surely happen before then that would make the adventure impossible.

Alas, divine intervention never occurred. And I found myself in Moshi, Tanzania after flying for a total of 17 hours. Our team consisted of Dr. Al, our fearless leader and expert climber; Daryl, the tech expert; Kevin, my childhood friend and one of the funniest most tenacious people I know; and yours truly.

We checked into our hotel (which looked a lot like a military compound) and rested up. We would head for the mountain the following morning.

I woke up with what felt like symptoms of bronchitis, but pressed on to rendezvous with the team and our guide, Raymond, in the lobby. After sorting out a minor miscommunication over weight limits for our gear, we were off. A harrowing bus ride and several warning signs later, we got off the decrepit vehicle and began our climb.

What followed was a five-day ordeal that I can only describe as hellish, painful, unbearable, and insane. Every day was worse and more arduous than the last. I eventually found myself just putting one foot in front of the other while mentally reciting my mantra that it would eventually be over.

My bronchitis worsened and Raymond’s oxygen testing device made it clear that I had pushed myself to the point of concern, but I stubbornly pushed on, pretty much running on fumes. Finally, Raymond put his hand on my shoulder and motioned for me to look ahead. There it was. Uhuru Peak. We had conquered Mount Kilimanjaro.

I staggered to Kibo Hut, a campsite along the mountain route, walked past the table of food laid out for us, and crawled into my cot. Dr. Al checked me out and called for a stretcher.

An hour later, I was on the stretcher, bidding my friend’s adieu. I was smiling. Daryl and Kevin looked envious. Being toted on a stretcher supported by a bicycle wheel was not comfortable, but I was half-delirious and happy to be off my feet. I met up with my buddies at the next stop down,  and we all had a good sleep. The next morning, I felt much better and completed the descent with them on foot.

I will say this about climbing Mount Kilimanjaro: If there is a better way to test the limits of your endurance, I don’t know it. I’m glad I did it and will be proud that I did it for the rest of my life. But would I do it again? NO!

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