“Politics is not predictions and politics is not observations. Politics is what we do.” – Paul Wellstone
Thoughts on a Too-Close-to-Call Election
I’ve never understood how, in a country the size of ours, presidential election results are so often decided by such a thin margin. It just doesn’t seem that the vote could end up being close to 50/50.
As I write this, we don’t know who our president will be. By the time you read this, we may have the answer. More likely, we won’t, and this will turn out to be another election, like 2000, decided by the courts.
I was going to write about the election results and their ramifications today. But since we’re still in limbo, I’ll tell you what I think will happen over the next four years regardless of – and depending on – the outcome.
What will happen regardless of the outcome…
Nobody’s Leaving: Yesterday, I wrote, facetiously, about people that swore they’d be leaving the country if their man didn’t win. That won’t happen.
The Pandemic: Cases of COVID-19 will continue to mount steadily over the winter. The death count will rise behind it, but at a lower than expected level. Election results won’t matter in terms of fatality rates, but if Biden wins, media coverage of the pandemic will drop considerably.
Police Brutality and the BLM Movement: When African-Americans – armed or unarmed – are shot by police, protests and rioting will follow. Media coverage of the movement will wane if Biden is elected and increase if Trump is reelected. We may see some improvements in local police protocols and policies. But real progress in reducing unnecessary force and other forms of bad police behavior will come from an ever-increasing use of cellphone recordings and postings on social media.
Racism and Antiracism: Regardless of who wins the presidency, the interest in and support of the concepts of white privilege, white fragility, and antiracism will ebb, and efforts to pass a reparations bill will be roundly defeated. Meanwhile, conservatism among Black and Latino voters will rise.
Social Justice and Identity Politics: Universities will ramp up their campaigns for identity politics and Socialism. But university enrollments will go down.
Foreign Entanglements: The Military Industrial Complex will continue to push for more third-world proxy wars, but without success. Instead, a new cold war with either China or Russia (depending on who wins) will begin, with a corresponding arms race that will cost taxpayers trillions of dollars.
* China: Even if Trump wins, China’s economy will continue to grow faster than ours, and will become the world’s largest by the end of the next administration.
* Trade Wars: Current support for tariffs and trade wars will diminish greatly as the negative consequences for the US become clear.
* Prison Reform: There will be continued efforts to reduce the number of non-violent criminals behind bars, but interest in this will diminish considerably before the end of the year.
* Immigration: Regardless of who wins, US immigration policies will remain largely the same.
* Government Spending: The dam is broken. Democrats and Republicans will continue to agree on spending trillions of dollars we don’t have to pay for boondoggles we don’t need.
* Health Care: Even if Trump wins, we will gradually move towards health care for all, but at a level that the system can support, which will be very basic.
* The Environment: Even if Biden wins, the Green New Deal is not happening. We’ll make progress towards a cleaner environment, but at a pace that allows US GDP to inch back to healthy levels. There will be no significant changes in the next four years.
* Infrastructure: Both sides of the aisle will continue talking about the importance of rebuilding US infrastructure, but nothing significant will be done.
* The Supreme Court: If Biden wins, the Democrats will try to pack the court, but they will fail because of the Senate.
What will change, depending on the outcome…
* Personal Liberty: If Biden wins, there will be less of it.
* Taxes: If Trump wins, some taxes will go down, but not substantially. If Biden wins, taxes will go up.
* Regulations: If Trump wins, there will be more deregulation. If Biden wins, there will be more regulation.
* The Stock Market and the Economy: If Trump wins, the market will rebound, and it may stay up for a while because of continued government spending. But eventually, the bills from the shutdown will come due, and the US will go into a prolonged recession. The poor will stay poor. The rich will get richer. And the working and commercial classes will gradually pay off the bills.
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