“I’d like to think that anxiety is a form of emotional intelligence – alerting one to future threats that others ignore. The problem is it doesn’t work that way because anxiety is always forward facing. By the time tomorrow comes, you are worried about some new threat.” – Michael Masterson
11 Ways the COVID Lockdown Will Change the World, Good and Bad
- More zoom meetings.
Most breakthrough technologies make only a superficial difference, but Zoom is a game-changer. It has all the benefits of being in a room with others, with none of the drawbacks. Zoom meetings are, without question, more efficient. There is something about them that encourages people to spend less time chatting and stick more closely to the agenda. Plus, nobody has to waste time traveling – in some cases, for hours – to attend.
- Less office space.
The lockdown has woken us up to the reality that most of our work can get done as well, or better, remotely. Even, as I said above, meetings. Office space is expensive. If you don’t need it, why pay for it? Two-thirds of our economy is now information-based. As a result of this trend, I’m guessing that businesses like those of my clients will graduate eventually to about 20% of the office space they currently use.
- A recession in commercial real estate.
My partners and I just put a halt on a plan to raze the converted warehouse I work out of and replace it with a much larger, $14 million, glass and steel office building. We’ve always been big buyers of real estate. That’s over. We’ll be looking, instead, at selling ours. And we won’t be alone. According to Moody Analytics, the country’s office vacancy rate has been rising. So far, it’s gone from 9% in Q1 2020 to 15% in Q2.
- A new market for commercial conversions.
The bulk of the office space that goes empty will be converted to apartments and condos. This will be a boon for construction companies that are able to efficiently do that sort of thing. But it will also put a pause on the new construction of apartments and condos for as many years as it takes to absorb the unused space.
- Subscription services as the norm in selling information.
All forms of information – from entertainment to news to advisory services – will convert their marketing models to subscription-based services. This change has been going on for some time, but it’s going to speed up. According to Zion Market Research, the subscription business model, valued at $3.8 billion in 2018, is expected to grow to $10.5 billion by 2025.
- A much-needed revolution in higher education.
Despite claims that we can’t replace in-class learning, people are quickly discovering that remote education is perfectly well suited for at least 60% of the subject matter being taught today. Private colleges will realize, as other information businesses already have, that they can make more money and do a better job with computer-assisted programs.
Campuses will continue to exist for the social aspects of the college experience, but the amount of time kids spend in class will be slashed by 80%. Even more important – and this, I admit, is a wish rather than a prediction – students will opt out of such useless courses as gender theory and Marxist economics and spend their education dollars on courses they can profit from.
- The end of most shopping malls…
There is no longer any reason to travel to a mall, except for the enjoyment of having someplace to go. Strip malls will be the first to go. Half of those in existence are already dead in the water and won’t be coming back. Some larger, luxurious, shopping malls will thrive, but only a fraction of those that exist today.
Coresight Research predicts that 25% of all the malls in the US will close within five years. In February, Macy’s announced the closing of 125 stores over the next three years. JC Penny has plans to close as many as 150 stores. And, in fact, Simon Property Group (the largest owner of US malls) is working on a potential deal to turn closed department stores into Amazon fulfillment centers.
- And the end of brick-and-mortar retail.
For most products, direct-to-consumer marketing will be the standard in selling. Online shopping and next-day delivery will become the norm. And even for products you might want to try on or try out – like clothes or tools or TV sets – increasingly easy return policies will bolster direct-to-consumer commerce.
- An increase in the use of psychopharmacological drugs and psychiatric services
All this remote (i.e., solo) shopping, entertainment, and education will cause an epidemic of anxiety, addiction, and depression – a serious problem that began surging as early as March.
Three examples:
* In March, the Substance Abuse and Mental Health Administration’s “emotional distress” phone hotlines spiked 338%; their text hotlines skyrocketed from 1790 last April to 20,000 in April of this year.
* An analysis by the White House’s drug policy office reported an 11.4% year-over-year increase in fatal overdoses in the first four months of this year.
* An August poll taken by the CDC revealed that 25% of respondents aged 18-24 had considered suicide in the prior 30 days; 40% reported at least one adverse mental health condition as a result of the coronavirus.
- Amazon’s revenues will double in the next 5 years.
Amazon’s current revenues are more than $300 billion a year, but the lockdown has given millions the opportunity to get used to online shopping. Amazon has big plans, and I don’t see how – other than by some kind of antitrust action – they can be stopped. I wouldn’t be surprised to see them bypass the $500 billion barrier in the next few years and go on to bypass Walmart.
- The Googles and Facebooks of the world will become the first digital countries, eventually replacing nation states.
What is a country but a political, economic, and cultural entity held together by a common mythology of identity and a touch of police and military power? Internet businesses like Google, Facebook, and YouTube have established their own cultures, economies, and politics that are funded by voluntary taxes and enforced by unilateral power over their hundreds of millions of digital citizens.
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