“Every glittering ounce of [good news] should be cherished and hoarded and worshipped and fondled like a priceless diamond.”– Hunter S. Thompson

Coronavirus Pandemic: Hope and Progress 

Today, we are going to take a break from all the noxious news and daunting data about the Corona Crisis to give you some hopeful facts.

Yes, we know that, with shutdowns in nearly every country in the world, economies are faltering. But to provide some immediate relief, governments have pledged to support citizens and businesses with subsidies, loans, suspensions of tax and rent, and other measures.

And all over America (and the rest of the world), businesses, large and small, are stepping up to combat the virus and provide commercial and economic relief.

Across the globe, thousands of doctors, scientists, and researchers are working to find a vaccine. But they are also working hard on treatments to reduce symptoms and improve outcomes. The SARS-CoV-2 pathogen is similar to coronaviruses scientists have studied before, including the SARS virus that struck in 2002. That has given them an advantage in terms of moving in the right direction. They already know, for example, how the virus enters cells.

These early discoveries are being shared through hundreds of medical and scientific journals.

And the pace of all this work and all these actions is amazing. Almost everything listed below has happened in the last 30 days.

 Treatments, Remedies & Vaccines 

* A team of Canadian scientists has isolated and grown copies of the coronavirus. And Australian scientists have figured out how the body’s immune system fights it.

* Scientists at Israel’s Institute for Biological Research said that they have made a “significant breakthrough” in understanding the biological mechanism of the virus, including the way antibodies are produced by those who already have it.

* A team of scientists at the University of Pittsburgh School of Medicine said that they are making “quick” progress in developing a potential COVID-19 vaccine.

* The first US clinical trials for a potential vaccine have begun in Seattle. Biotech company Moderna has fused a piece of the genetic code for the pathogen’s S protein – the part that’s present in other coronaviruses, like SARS – with fatty nanoparticles that can be injected into the body.

* Imperial College London is designing a similar vaccine using coronavirus RNA, its genetic code.

* Johnson & Johnson and French pharmaceutical giant Sanofi are working with the US Biomedical Advanced Research and Development Authority to develop vaccines. Sanofi’s approach is to mix coronavirus DNA with genetic material from a harmless virus. Johnson & Johnson’s approach is to attempt to deactivate SARS-CoV-2 and switch off its ability to cause illness.

* Recent reports suggest that some existing antiviral drugs, including remdesivir and the Japanese flu drug favipiravir, may have an effect on the new coronavirus. Zhang Xinmin, an official at China’s science and technology ministry, said favipiravir, developed by a subsidiary of Fujifilm, had produced encouraging outcomes in clinical trials in Wuhan and Shenzhen involving 340 patients. “It has a high degree of safety and is clearly effective in treatment,” Zhang told reporters.

* Doctors in India have reported success in treating infected patients with a mixture of drugs usually used to tackle HIV, swine flu, and malaria.

* In China and Japan, doctors have had promising results using blood plasma from people who have recovered from COVID-19 to treat newly infected patients. This well-established medical technique could even be used to boost the immunity of people who are at risk of catching the disease.

* On March 27, the Food and Drug Administration issued an emergency use authorization for a new test developed by Abbott Laboratories that can deliver coronavirus results in as little as five minutes. Metro Health Medical Center in Cleveland is already using the new test.

* The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention has started testing for antibodies to see if healthy people previously had the coronavirus. The tests could help the agency better understand the virus and its spread, indicating how prevalent the virus has been and whether a significant number of people have had it without actually getting sick.

* Preliminary studies in China report that the malaria drug hydroxychloroquine shows promise. “Cough, fever, and pneumonia went away faster, and the disease seemed less likely to turn severe in people who received hydroxychloroquine than in a comparison group not given the drug.”

* In hospitals in Boston, Alabama, Louisiana, Sweden, and Austria, researchers are conducting clinical trials to determine whether giving nitric oxide to patients with mild to moderate cases of COVID-19 can help them. The impetus for this was a report that showed good results from earlier trials in Italy that were themselves promising.

* A San Diego biotech company is developing a vaccine with Duke University and the National University of Singapore.

* A new drug, EIDD-2801, shows promise in reducing lung damage. Results of initial tests on mice were published April 6 in the journal Science Transnational Medicine. The tests showed that, when given as a treatment 12 or 24 hours after infection, EIDD-2801 could prevent severe lung injury in infected mice. “This new drug not only has high potential for treating COVID-19 patients, but also appears effective for the treatment of other serious coronavirus infections,” said senior author Baric. What is especially hopeful about EIDD-2801 is that it is a pill.

* Erasmus Medical Center has found an antibody that can fight against the coronavirus. While not a cure, it seems to be halting the infection temporarily and giving the patient time to recover.

Companies Helping Out

 * The sports world is raising money for stadium employees, Uber Eats is providing free delivery to help independent restaurants, professional soccer players are entertaining viewers with a FIFA tournament, restaurants are doling out free food to those in need.

* Formula 1 racing engineers at Mercedes have joined forces with University College London to develop a breathing device that can be used instead of putting patients on a ventilator in intensive care.

* Distilleries across the US are using high-proof alcohol to make hand sanitizer and are giving it away for free.

* Google is digging into its massive trove of data tracking the movements of people around the world to produce a series of reports designed to help policymakers and researchers in the fight against the coronavirus.

* Several major health insurers have promised to cover COVID-19 costs.

 * When the coronavirus outbreak spread through Microsoft’s home state of Washington, Bill Gates teamed up with Amazon, another Seattle-based tech giant, to provide at-home test kits to residents in the area.

* Bill Gates is also funding the construction of seven factories to manufacture vaccines rapidly when they are approved, instead of wasting time by waiting to find out which vaccines work… and then building the factories.

Economic Support 

* The US has passed legislation to give $1200 to most American adults and $500 to most children as part of a stimulus package that also includes loans to businesses and local and state governments, funds for hospitals, and more unemployment insurance.

 * Australia is paying AU$750 (around $445 or £380) to all lower-income citizens, and is offering loans to small and medium-sized businesses.

* Denmark is subsidizing 75% of workers’ salaries.

* France has promised that no company will be allowed to fail as a result of the pandemic. It is freezing tax and rent payments for small businesses and expanding the welfare system for workers.

* Germany has pledged at least 500 billion euros ($550 billion) in loan guarantees.

* Italy has promised help for families and one-off 500-euro payments to people who are self-employed.

* Spain has announced a 200-billion-euro rescue package in loans for small businesses, and is freezing mortgages and utility bills for individuals.

* Sweden is subsidizing 90% of workers’ salaries if they’re affected by coronavirus.

* The UK is guaranteeing 80% of workers’ salaries and providing limited sick pay to those who are self-employed.

 People Helping Out 

 * Many people have joined volunteer mutual aid groups to support the vulnerable in their own communities. When the UK government called for volunteers, more than a quarter of a million people signed up in a single day.

* People and businesses are creating online resources to help ease the tension and inconvenience of quarantine, many of them free or discounted.

* Kind gestures are everywhere, from thank-you signs for garbage collectors to asocially distanced “welcome home” parade for a young cancer patient.

* In the UK, people around the country simultaneously took to their windows, balconies, and gardens to cheer and applaud the health workers of the NHS.

* Apple, Facebook, and other companies are donating millions of face masks.

* Cuban doctors traveled to Italy to help deal with the spread of the disease.

* Celebrities are doing their bit, whether it’s James McAvoy donating £275,000 to health care workers, Amy Adams and Josh Gad reading stories for children, or John Krasinski starting a YouTube channel dedicated to good news.

A Growing Number of “Good News” Sources 

Thanks to the internet, it’s easy to keep up with the “good news” – and, thankfully, there’s plenty of it. I found the following online in less than 5 minutes:

 * “John Krasinski launches ‘good news’ network from quarantine”

* “The Good News Dashboard” LINK

 * “A look at some ‘good news’ across the US” LINK

“Facts are stubborn things; and whatever may be our wishes, our inclinations, or the dictates of our passions, they cannot alter the state of facts and evidence.”

– John Adams

Coronavirus Update: New Estimates and Answers 

Today, I’m going to cover some aspects of the pandemic that are not reported, are underreported, or are misunderstood.

The possibility that symptomology is correlated to amount of exposure

On top of my list are two questions about symptomology. Why is it that some young and healthy people have died from COVID-19 when we’ve been told that it wouldn’t happen? And how can we explain the fact that the symptoms range from nothing to mild to severe – even among young and healthy people?

These questions have been posed to Dr. Fauci several times in the past three weeks. He says he doesn’t know – that it’s a mystery.

I don’t understand why he says that, because there is a theory that makes sense to me. It’s been posited by at least two epidemiologists, and has studies behind it. The theory is that the severity of the disease is determined not only by the infected individual’s immune system but also by the amount of coronavirus he or she has been exposed to.

The amount of exposure depends on two things: the size of the molecules that infect you and the way you have been infected.

If someone sneezes directly into your face, you will likely get a large dose – not only of many molecules of the virus but of the larger ones that some scientists believe are more virulent. But if the same person sneezes at you from a greater distance, your chances of getting a large dose are proportionally less.

This is why we’ve been asked to keep a social distance of six feet. The larger molecules that would be emitted from a person speaking would not normally travel that far, but the expulsion from a sneeze is much stronger than that which comes from speaking.

So that could explain why some people get more severe symptoms. They’ve been infected by large doses of the large molecules of the virus.

But the size of the dose is only one factor that supports the theory. The other is that you can also receive a large dose in increments – by being exposed to small molecules of the virus multiple times.

If, for example, a young person spends an evening in a bar or restaurant with friends, one or several of whom are infected but asymptomatic. During the first 5 or 10 minutes, the amount of the virus he or she would be exposed to would be small. But after hours of that mild exposure, there is a compounding effect.

Those repeated exposures add up. The dose increases. Thus, when the infected person comes down with symptoms, they can be strong or even deadly.

This could explain why that doctor from China who “outed” the disease died from it.  It could also explain why some young and healthy people have experienced severe symptoms, and a few of them have even died.

If this is true, the takeaways are as follows:

* Six feet is a sufficient distance for conversation so long as you aren’t in the same closed space with an infected person for a length of time.

* If someone that is infected sneezes directly at you from a distance of six feet or less, you may be in trouble.

This may also mean that front-line workers (not just medical personnel, but also people working in restaurant kitchens and service windows, taxi drivers, delivery people, and anyone else working long hours in the proximity of several others) will likely develop more severe symptoms if and when they contract the virus.

How many will be infected? 

When Dr. Fauci announced new CDC estimates on how many Americans will get infected and how many will die, he was vague on the first and more specific on the second.

As to the death toll, the CDC estimates were 100,000 to 240,000. As for the number infected, Dr. Fauci said, “millions.”
I believe he was specifically vague not because there were not more accurate estimates available but because he didn’t want to alarm the public.

When you hear millions, you usually think of a number that is less than 10 million. But as I said in my March 30 essay, the arithmetic suggests that the range will be in the tens of millions.

This is likely because of the fact that some 80% of the people that are diagnosed as positive for COVID-19 have mild to medium symptoms. Which means, as the major media are finally figuring out, that the number of people that have the virus today is probably larger than the number of reported cases by a factor of 10.

But even 10 could be too low a multiple.

Michael Mina, Assistant Professor of Epidemiology at Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health, recently said, “This is an extraordinarily transmissible virus, and I think it’s more transmissible than we recognize. We really don’t know if we’ve been 10 times off or a hundred times off in terms of the cases. Personally, I lean more to 50 or a hundred times off.”

That means instead of more than a million cases in the world right now, there could be anywhere from 10 million to perhaps 100 million.

Those numbers are too scary to think about.

While waiting for more data, I’m sticking to my guess that the multiple will be 10 and that, after all is said and done, the number of Americans that become infected will be 20 million to 60 million.

If that turns out to be true, the death toll will likely be far more than 100,000. It will be in the range of 200,000 to 600,000.

I know it doesn’t seem possible at this point – with total cases at only 350,000 and deaths at only 10,000. But if you do the arithmetic based on the growth rate now, it’s quite possible.

More percentages 

And finally, some new data…

The tracking services I’ve been following are becoming more specific as the weeks go by. Now they are reporting not just numbers tested and the results of those tests but also number hospitalized, numbers on ventilators, and, of course deaths.

If you look at these numbers as percentages, you can arrive at some odds that are interesting:

* The percentage of people that test positive for COVID-19 has been running just under 25%.

* The percentage of people in the hospital that go into ICU is about 20%.

* The percentage of people in ICU that are on ventilators is 33%.

* A third of the world’s cases are now in the US. As things are going now, the US will have half the world’s cases by the end of the month.

* Right now, the US is not conducting any antibody tests. This is a crucially important test to understand how the virus spreads.

That’s it for today. Coming soon: we’ll take a look at what businesses are doing to stay alive during the pandemic.