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Last Friday at the Cigar Club

Notes from My Journal:

Wednesday and Friday evenings at my private Cigar Club in Delray Beach are always good but never the same. And that’s probably because the people that drop by for a chat have so many different interests and experiences. 
 
The number of people that show up also varies considerably – from small gatherings of just five or six to pop-up parties of 40 or more. The size of the crowd depends on how many “We’re open this evening” emails I tell Gio to send out. Most of the time, the notice is restricted to my inner sanctum. Sometimes, when I’m feeling spunky, it goes out to a larger list. And sometimes, she sends out nothing at all because I’m on a deadline and planning to work late or I’m feeling like a solo sulk. (If I change my mind after she leaves, I can signal that we’re open with a little remote-control gadget I keep in my desk drawer that illuminates a string of little lights that run across the outside of the building.)
 
Last Friday was mostly an inner sanctum night, so I wasn’t expecting a big crowd. 
 
The first to arrive was R. He had emailed me earlier in the week, telling me that he had started a business using Ready, Fire, Aim for ideas and inspiration, was going to be in town for a few days, and would like to stop in and say hello. My memory, as you know, is nothing to brag about, but I did remember having several conversations with him years earlier. I remembered him as smart and ambitious. And for some reason, I mistakenly remembered him as having red hair.
 
We spent the first 15 minutes reminiscing about the old days, but I didn’t get to ask him much about his business before the “regulars” began to appear. (I gleaned that R was in the general field of direct response marketing and that he had clients, as opposed to customers, but that was about it.)
 
P, a good friend and occasional business partner for 30+ years, was my next guest. It’s always good to have one or two of my older friends around at these get-togethers – not only so they can experience the fun, but because I’m interested to see how they interact with the younger people and hear what they think of my reactions and “takeaways.” Above all, I want to know if they thought the conversations were as good or as bad as I thought they were.
 
Next was H – a young man who was delivering pizzas six months ago when he decided to drive to South Florida to volunteer to work for R, whose ideas about optimizing artificial intelligence he found exciting. H just walked into R’s office, said he wanted to work for him, and said he’d be happy to do it for free. I met H several times after he began working for R, and I had high hopes for him. His advancement was even faster than I expected. He’s currently running one of R’s many income streams. 
 
A pleasant surprise (something that has happened at least twice before with these smart, young people) was that H was accompanied by his mom and dad, who, according to H, wanted to meet me. They were both delightful and, to my chagrin, at least 10 years younger than I am. In introducing us, H told the story of how it was that knew who I was. Apparently, in his high school years, H’s father made him read books about business, wealth-building, and self-improvement. One of them – which H now swears was his favorite – was Ready, Fire, Aim.
 
Let’s see… Who else was there? 
 
Oh! Z showed up! Z is a guy I’ve known for six or eight years. I don’t know how to describe his occupation. I guess I’d say he’s a well-regarded influencer in the world of plant-based medicine, particularly the kind that Dr. Timothy Leary was interested in. Z gives lectures to doctors and psychologists, produces documentaries on his field of work, and sometimes conducts “guided experiential tours” for his clients. From what I can tell by following him on social media, he’s lately become popular with some professional athletes and movie stars and such. But he’s not letting this go to his head. He still drops by the Cigar Club when he’s in South Florida to check in with me and hang out with us ordinary people. 
 
Then B arrived. I’m sure I’ve talked to you about B before. Like Z, B’s work is multifaceted and cannot be explained with a title or in a single sentence. In his 30s, B made a fortune starting and then selling some sort of software company. Since then, he’s been consulting with and sometimes investing in software start-ups. He’s also an accomplished musician who has opened for A-level rock bands, a writer of screenplays, and a formidable opponent in debate. 
 
A few more were present, but you get the picture. The conversations that took place were lively and diverse, covering topics ranging from classic movies, to legendary comics, to politics, to the war in Iran, to the average IQs of various ethnic groups. And it wasn’t long before we were exchanging news and views about – yes, I’m going to get into it again – artificial intelligence.

The AI Threat to Musicians That’s Happening Now

In the April 9 issue, I wrote about how AI is invading the music industry at a rate and to a degree that, even accounting for my alarmist feelings about AI, is shocking. Since then, I’ve been spending a bit of my reading/research time each day checking out what’s new in AI music. And there’s quite a bit.

One of the things we discussed at the Cigar Bar on Friday was a story I’d read in The Free Press. It was about Murphy Campbell, a singer-songwriter and banjo player from North Carolina who was eking out a modest living videotaping herself sitting on a log or a rocking chair and performing her original compositions. Her fan base was steadily increasing when, a few months ago, she noticed that songs were appearing on her Spotify page that were attributed to her, but were not hers. She hadn’t written them. She hadn’t performed them. And yet, they sounded eerily familiar.
 
She eventually realized that they were AI-generated, probably created by someone who was feeding an AI with snippets of her published songs and asking it to create other songs that were similar.
 
Understandably, this irked her. But when she received a notice that she was “sharing” royalties for these counterfeits that were being played on platforms all over the world, she was flummoxed. Who was selling this music? And what, if anything, could she do about it?
 
A few of the people in our little group on Friday had heard of this scam going on in the music industry. “It’s a new thing,” said B, “so it’s not well known. But it isn’t rare either. It’s not a huge issue right now, but it could easily become one.”
 
The problem, B explained, is that if you know what you are doing, you can feed in any sort of music you want and generate a troop of AI singer-songwriters producing and performing “original” music for you. And all you have to do is a bit of video cutting and pasting and using an AI to create a royalty-sharing contract, either with the Murphy Campbells of the world or even with your own AI avatars.
 
The conversation moved on to the potential of this – good and bad.
 
On the good side is the possibility that the music industry could grow geometrically as millions of kinda-like songs and singers are produced and promoted by thousands of AI agents working in their basements or kitchens. 
 
On the bad side is the eventual (but not that eventual) collapse of the music culture we enjoy now, with human-generated music becoming, at best, a personal hobby with very little monetizable value, and where 80% to 90% of the money made will go to musicians and dealmakers that insert themselves into the AI music industry now and figure out what needs to be done.
 
I know a few musicians and would-be musicians that either make a living or hope to make a living composing and performing their own music. Most of them are hanging on to the hope that AI will never be able to capture a large swath of the marketplace by selling fake music to real people. 
 
And maybe they will be proven right. 
 
But what if they are wrong? What will they be left with? 
 
If you are in the music industry now or would like to be in the future, you need to hedge your bet by continuing to do your own thing while learning about and even testing out AI music. You’ve got nothing but a bit of time to lose… and you’ve got an exciting and remunerative future to win.

Will AI Take Over the Music Industry

And Eventually Replace Human Musicians? 

Since I’m on this subject for the second time in a month, I thought I would give you some outside perspectives on the questions I’ve been indirectly asking.

Four Articles Worth Reading 

The Atlantic on how AI, algorithms, and streaming are reshaping music

The Economist on how AI systems are generating music at scale

The New Yorker on how major labels are experimenting with AI while trying to protect artists

Time magazine on how AI could undermine authenticity and replace human artists if unchecked

Four Video Commentaries Worth Watching

* “AI Will Destroy the Music Industry.”

* “The Music Industry Is Turning on AI Producers.”

* “The Music Industry’s AI Takeover.”

* “Is AI music going to overshadow human music?” 

Readers Write:

KK Isn’t Worried About AI… Here’s Why 

After reading my April 9 post on the AI music debate, KK, a longtime friend and regular reader, wrote to cheer me up with this positive take on it:

“Nice to see you writing about music, a subject near and dear to my ear. My take on AI is it will not have a formative effect on the industry. Why? Because most bands today make the bulk of their money from live shows, especially touring, ticket sales, and merchandise sold at concerts. Streaming, royalties, and licensing can add income, but they usually pay less than performances for most active bands. Gone are the days of gold records creating fortunes.

“I think of AI as an invasive plant, needing herbicides only when it’s encroached to the point of intolerance. How things eventually level out will most likely be seen by people other than you and me.

“Still, my biggest concern is AI’s use by the criminally intent. I believe the combination of Quantum computing and AI will render encryption and the blockchain obsolete (bitcoin).

“Soon to be entering my 77th year, I can only say maybe we will see it.”

My Response: KK, I understand how you feel about AI music and how it may inform your hopes for the future. I used to have the same feelings and thoughts about AI writing.

Your point about the economics of the music industry is a good one. But consider the success of The Sphere in Las Vegas, and the fact that AI music producers will be able to generate and own all the rights to their creations. All that is missing is the emotional attachment.

I was feeling something for that second AI avatar I mentioned in the April 9 issue: Morgan Luna. In my future vision, I’ll be able to send her fan mail, which she’ll respond to, letting me know that she’d like to have a chat with me online. That will become a several-weeks-long (or several-months-long) romance, if I am so inclined. And then finally – if she becomes as popular as I think she might – I’ll be able to order a robotic version of her through Amazon and have her delivered to my hotel room in 24 hours!

The downside, of course, could be unimaginably bad…

Darth Vader’s “Imperial March” Played as a Bach Fugue

Postscript: 

And now for some music written by and played by real people…

This is great. This guitarist (who I’ve seen before somewhere) upgrades Darth Vader’s theme from Star Wars into a Bach fugue. It’s technically impressive. And it’s edifying. I’ve heard “Bach fugue” defined before, but it wasn’t until I listened to this short piece of music that I understood how it works.